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"If you have control of the House of Representatives, you decide what comes up and when, and in what form," said Ornstein. |
WASHINGTON — With Democrats looking set to emerge the winner in Tuesday's mid-term elections, American analysts expected on Sunday, November 5, that a Democratic Congress would not only alter the administration's domestic policies, but also set the course of the Bush presidency in its two last years.
"If you have control of the House of Representatives, you decide what comes up and when, and in what form," Norm Ornstein, a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute, told Agence France-Presse (AFP).
He said the House has been a "wholly-owned subsidiary" for the Bush administration until now, asserting that if the Democrats take control Bush "won't be able to get ... what he wants when he wants it."
A shakeup of Congress would see a powerful new cast running its key committees and in its most prominent posts.
The 435-seat House of Representatives is currently led by a staunch Bush ally, conservative House Speaker Dennis Hastert.
But if Democrats win a majority of seats, Nancy Pelosi, from the "left coast" city of San Francisco, will most likely set the agenda in the lower house of Congress.
Pelosi, currently House Minority Leader, would likely become Speaker.
All of the House committees and subcommittees would lose their current Republican chairs and be replaced by Democrats.
Democratic Representative Chris Van Hollen of Maryland said changes would start "immediately" when the new Congress reconvenes on January 3.
"You will have greater accountability," he declared, with greater congressional oversight of the White House.
"You will have a process where committees will actually do their job, bring witnesses before them, and ask them the tough questions in an open setting."
With Democrats needing a net 15 seats out of 435 in play to control the House, and six seats out of 33 to dominate the 100-seat Senate, opinion polls predict the Democrats are likely to win back the House and possibly even the Senate from Bush's Republicans.
The Republican Party's declining fortunes are mainly linked to the unpopularity of the war in Iraq.
A recent CBS poll showed Iraq to be by far the most important concern of voters, with 27 percent citing it as their top-priority issue, followed by the economy and jobs (13 percent), illegal immigration (eight percent) and terrorism (seven percent).
Headache
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| "This still looks to be a very ugly midterm election for the GOP," said Cook. |
Pundits agree that the last months of any US president's term in office usually result in a "lame duck" leader who is a less potent presence on the world stage and less able to dictate his political will at home.
A Democratic Congress, hence, could spell a political headache for Bush, with possible congressional investigations and legislative gridlock marking the final two years of his presidency.
In a Newsweek poll last month, more than half of those surveyed -- 56 percent -- said they believe Bush will not be able to get much done for the rest of his second term.
Bush's first obstacle is a Democratic pledge to hold hearings on the conduct of the Iraq war.
The party in control of the House or the Senate has the authority to hold hearings and investigations and to issue subpoenas compelling witnesses to testify.
The Democrats have said they are eager to investigate the use of flawed intelligence to make the case for the 2003 invasion of Iraq and the slow federal response to the Hurricane Katrina disaster.
The Democrats are also championing calls for a phased withdrawal of US troops from Iraq as opposed to Bush's "stay the course" strategy.
A Democratic takeover of the US Congress would put two of the most outspoken critics of the Iraq war in charge of dispensing the money Bush will seek for combat.
Rep. David Obey of Wisconsin, who believes Iraq is the "dumbest war since the War of 1812," would assume the Appropriations Committee chair if Democrats win this week.
Across Capitol Hill, Sen. Robert Byrd of West Virginia, who had accused Bush of flaunting American superpower status with arrogance, would head the Senate Appropriations panel.
With either Obey or Byrd in charge of the committees that pay the $8-billion-a-month Iraq war tab, the administration would have to do far more explaining of how the money was being spent.
Democrats will also become empowered to set the legislative agenda, although they would likely have a razor-thin majority that may allow Republicans to block some of their efforts.
Democrats say they would quickly introduce long-stalled bills to raise the minimum wage for the first time in a decade, put new homeland security measures in place and control a runaway US budget deficit.
Struggling to Survive
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| "There’s no question we’re going to take a hit. The only question is how hard it would be," said Gaylord. |
Analysts predict steep Election Day losses for Republicans, with Bush and Republican candidates struggling to survive in states that were off-limits in the past for the Democrats.
"Perhaps the most remarkable thing about this election is that Republicans are having to fight and spend money in states and districts where few Democrats have dared tread in recent years," respected Washington pundit Charlie Cook said in his Cook Political Report.
"This still looks to be a very ugly midterm election for the GOP."
Campaigning reached a fever pitch this weekend, as Bush criss-crossed the country in hopes of shoring up the Republicans' conservative base.
"It’s the worst political environment for Republican candidates since Watergate," Glen Bolger, a Republican pollster working in many of the top races this year, told The New York Times on Sunday.
Representative Thomas M. Davis III, a Virginia Republican and veteran party strategist, expected a defeat.
"There’s no question we’re going to take a hit. The only question is how hard it would be," he said.
Veteran Republican Joe Gaylord said that based on polling he had seen in recent weeks, he expected his party to lose 25 seats to 30 seats on Tuesday.
"It’s very grim," Gaylord said. "Things are dreadful out there."
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