11 Countries Fuel Somali War: Report

SICS fighters stand next to their armed pickup truck in Mogadishu. (Reuters)

"They are preparing for a fight. There exists an agreement between the countries that says 'This country provides this, this country provides that,'" one expert familiar with the content of an arms embargo violations report to the UN Security Council, due out next week, told Reuters Friday, November 10.

Syria, Iran, Libya, Sudan, Egypt, Eritrea, Djibouti and Saudi Arabia have all provided weapons or supplies – including food, uniforms, fuel and doctors -- to the powerful Supreme Islamic Council of Somalia (SICS), according to the report.

Reuters has not seen the report, which covers the period from June when the SICS took control of Mogadishu from US-backed warlords, but interviewed several experts who have seen the final version.

They say the report says the SICS has in its ranks about 1,000 battle-hardened foreign fighters and volunteer trainers expert in assassination, suicide bombing and sniping from groups including Lebanon's Hizbullah.

Besides the militants who have operated in Lebanon, Iraq, Afghanistan and even Indonesia, there are thousands of conventional soldiers inside Somalia from Horn of Africa rivals Ethiopia and Eritrea, the experts said, quoting the report.

The experts said Ethiopia has between 5,000 and 10,000 troops with armored vehicles in Somalia, while Eritrea has about 2,500 including specialists in anti-aircraft combat.

Yemen and Uganda have given weapons and other support -- including about 100 soldiers in Uganda's case -- to President Abdullahi Yusuf's government, the report says.

The SICS, which has controlled much of the south since seizing Mogadishu from US-backed warlords in June, and the government agreed last month in principle to create joint military forces.

Negotiations stalled after government allegations the SICS had broken the pact against military expansion by seizing more territory, and after SICS's protest at foreign interference by neighboring Ethiopia in favor of the government.

Another Iraq

What emerges from the report, the experts say, is a potential war of coalitions split along Muslim-Christian lines.

"This has the potential to turn Somalia into Iraq," said one of the officials, who declined to be named.

Many have long feared Ethiopia and Eritrea, bitter over a 1998-2000 war for their still-disputed border, will use neighboring Somalia as a proxy battleground.

The report provides further evidence that may be the case, the experts say.

It says the SICS are allied with Ethiopian rebels from the Ogaden National Liberation Front -- from the ethnically Somali Ogaden region -- and the Oromo Liberation Front.

The experts say the report shows the potential for an asymmetrical Iraq-style conflict involving bombings and assassinations that could spread into east and central Africa.

"They're not going to stop with conventional weapons with Ethiopia. They're going to hit soft targets," the official said.

That could mean attacks in Kenya and possibly stirring up rebel groups across the region stretching down to eastern Congo.

And though conventional wisdom has long said Ethiopian air power would give the government and its military patron the decisive edge, Eritrea has found a way to counter it, they said.

"The Eritreans are bringing in aircraft in pieces, flying them into Mogadishu," the expert said, but could not quantify how many had arrived.

Though that information is not in the report, the experts said Ethiopia and Uganda had given the interim government anti-aircraft weapons, including shoulder-fired SA-7 heat-seeking missiles and heavy machine guns.

Thousands of Somalis volunteered last month to fight alongside the SICS against Ethiopia as war is looming large.

Relations between Somalia and Ethiopia have been frosty since they fought in 1977-1978 over the ownership of the barren Ogaden region, which is largely inhabited by ethnic Somalis.