Iraq Civil War More Likely: UK Memo

"The prospect of a low intensity civil war and a de facto division of Iraq is probably more likely at this stage," Patey warned.

"The prospect of a low intensity civil war and a de facto division of Iraq is probably more likely at this stage than a successful and substantial transition to a stable democracy," said William Patey in his last telegram leaving Baghdad last week.

"Even the lowered expectation of President Bush for Iraq - a government that can sustain itself, defend itself and govern itself and is an ally in the war on terror - must remain in doubt."

Though he said "the position was not hopeless" in Iraq, Patey said the situation would remain "messy and difficult" for the next 5-10 years.

Iraq has been plagued by a series of sectarian-linked attacks since the February bombing of a revered Shiite shrine in Samarra.

Sunni and Shiite holy places were increasingly targeted in the aftermath.

In the most appalling sectarian attacks, at least 50 Sunnis were killed on July 9, by masked Shiite gunmen who stormed a Sunni neighborhood, set up checkpoints, entered people's houses and killed those whose identity cards marked them as Sunnis.

Many Iraqis, Sunnis and Shiites, had lined up at state registries over the past few months, believing that name changing is the best protection.

The New York Times reported recently that Iraq has turned into a "weapons bazaar," with most Iraqis racing to buy arms to defend themselves against tit-for-tat sectarian assaults.

Militias

The British diplomat also warned that the ongoing sectarian violence risks the break-up of the Arab country along ethnic lines.

"If we are to avoid a descent into civil war and anarchy then preventing the Jaish al-Mahdi (the Mahdi Army) from developing into a state within a state, as Hizbullah has done in Lebanon, will be a priority," he said.

The Mahdi army, loyal to Shiite leader Muqtada al-Sadr, is one of several militias linked to powerful Shiite and Kurdish parties.

Patey called on the British government to work to enable Iraqi troops to deal with militias in Iraq.

US Ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad has said militias, many with strong ties to powerful Shiite leaders and well entrenched in security and police forces, are killing more Iraqis than "terrorists".

The International Crisis Group (ICG) said in a report last February that only the introduction of significant changes to the Iraqi "sectarian" constitution and disbanding government-condoned militias can help ward off a deadly civil.

A senior official of the US-led forces said that almost a quarter of the Iraqi police are led by men suspected of crimes or sectarian violence.

"There are 26 battalions. Maybe five or six have leaders who have led them in a way that was either criminal, or sectarian, or both," the official told Reuters on condition of anonymity.

He highlighted a widening gap of confidence between people, police and the government.

Defiant

Blair denied his government was not painting a truthful picture of the Iraq situation. (Reuters)

"What he said in his telegram that was leaked was exactly what he said in his public interviews last week," Blair told a news conference.

"There's absolutely no doubt about what the purpose of the sectarian violence is ... The purpose is to put extremists in charge of countries rather than those committed to democracy. What should our response be? However difficult it is, stay the course," Blair said.

"That's what we're doing, and however tough it is we will see it through."

The worry expressed in Patey's cable reflects pessimism emerging among senior Iraqi officials as violence has increased in the months since a new "unity" government took power.

A senior Iraqi government official told Reuters last month that "Iraq as a political project is finished", with the capital split into Sunni and Shiite districts and officials working to divide control of the country on ethnic and sectarian lines.