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Recep Tayyip Erdogan, leader of Justice and Development Party, AKP. The Islamically rooted party is showing progress in the polls. |
With the elections now only hours away, Turkey prepares for its possibly strongest change, by democratic means, in the political map. For some it will come to mean a horrendous earthquake. To others, a step closer to a more mature democracy. By all means, tomorrow will surely mark the toughest test here, ever.
In many aspects, this seems to be a crucial moment in history, where the large segments of the electorate seek to gather around a new political line, albeit it may not contain much of the new in itself.
It happened in 1950, when Turkey finally stepped into the world of pluralistic democracies. A sweeping victory for the right wing, rural based Democrat Party (DP), meant redefining of the social textures of society and an end to one party rule.
It happened in 1965, when a new era with a (more) liberal constitution and a reaction to the military coup meant that a right wing derivative of DP, Justice Party (AP) again won a big victory, leading a new period of growth, with some ugly elements of the Cold War in the political field, the democratic left having been brutally harassed, paving the way for the violence.
It happened again 1983 when Mr. Ozal's Motherland Party (ANAP) had a landslide (37 percent) against the wishes of the then ruling military class. We seem to be on the brink of a similar development, unless a big surprise hits us with a slap on the head. A large chunk of the voters will regather and thus redefine the politics nationally, and it is highly probable that up to 80 percent of the active members of the Turkish political class will be forced out of the scene, perhaps for good.
This may create mayhem. Say, if only two parties enter. Say, they get only around 50 percent of the votes. Maybe less. Say, four of the major center parties are just under the notorious 10 percent, and out. This will mean, that immediately, from Monday, the political system will be put on the table, and bashed. The crisis on representation will be triggered. At the same time the old leaders will be under a heavy artillery fire of accusations.
In this case, if only a possible AKP majority gets more than enough seats to build a government, whether you like them or not, this would mean a strong test for those who did not vote for it. Tensions would be apparent.
Again, in this case, if the only two parties in Parliament seek to build a sort of unity coalition, this would mean that you suddenly have no opposition in Parliament.
In any case, a very likely scenario will mean that, for the first time in modern Turkish history, the leader of a winning party will not be allowed into active politics, and act behind curtains like a shadow PM.
What will it mean? What will we all be discussing on Monday? Another early election or a new era of consensus? A beneficial realignment and fruitful way to deeper integration into international markets?
We shall see.
Let us see what the people say tomorrow.
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