Balkan Elections: Is the Third Yugoslavia Disintegrating?

This spring, a number of mines were dismantled, after killing over one hundred innocent civilians, and injuring over two hundred others who are now maimed and handicapped.

Many of the three hundred, international, humanitarian organizations, have started to retreat from Kosovo, partially and totally, as they consider the Kosovon people not in need of food, although Kosovo might need aid for another five years.

Despite an unemployment rate of over 80 per cent , and open wounds of the Yugoslav genocide, Kosovo expects to have its first free elections in its history since 1912, when Serbia occupied the Albanian Kosovo. In 1918, Serbia, Croatia and Slovenia joined each other in a state called the Yugoslav Empire, which was disintegrated in 1941 with the invasion of Hitler's army. After six days with no support, the First Yugoslavia could not withstand Hitler's attack, and it disintegrated quickly. This was the result of the people's objection to the "artificial creature," excluding the Serbs but more so by the Albanians, Montenegrins, Muslims, and Macedonians, who were the last in turn to have their say.

The Croatian communist, Tito, managed to create the new Yugoslavia in 1945, but the Serbian communists were in constant opposition to him because Tito didn't allow them to put their hegemony above the others'. Tito's death in 198O in fact marked the beginning of the disintegration of the Second Yugoslavia, and the beginnings of the Third Yugoslavia with Serbia and Montenegro remaining after Slovenia, Croatia and Bosnia had won their independence through blood and war. Macedonia, however, had no war. The Third Yugoslavia was created by Slobodan Milosevic, the main architect of war crimes in the former Yugoslavia since 1987, based on the platform of the Serbian fascists' nationalism. It is Kosovo which has been the bloodiest victim of the Third Yugoslavia. After great suffering and through NATO action, it has managed to become an international protectorate expecting full independence.

Belgrade acts against Kosovo and Montenegro

The whole of the south-western Balkans is experiencing election fever this autumn. Political analysts were unanimous in claiming that the parliamentary and presidential elections in the Yugoslavia of Milosevic, which was held on 24 September and boycotted by the government of Montenegro, presented the tightest Gordian knot, whose cut derives turmoil in the Balkans. The United Nations is organizing the local elections in Kosovo, which is a now a protectorate under international control. The elections that are expected to be held by the end of October have been boycotted by the remaining Serbian minority in Kosovo on orders from Belgrade. This is due to the absence of recognition of the UN power, besides the fact that the UN is protecting them. Milosevic has many plans behind these realities.

The regime of Milosevic took a great many risks in losing the elections because of the opposition, although broken. Despite his dubious success, the polls signaled that the Serbian public support of Milosevic's party, Jul, (which he runs jointly with his wife, Mira) was dissipating.. Montenegro's boycott of those "federal elections", was due to its desire for independence and no connections with them. But Milosevic operated in Montenegro, with the help of the army and the intelligence services, opened polling stations with the intention of stealing votes for himself. Subsequently, the UN power does not recognize the illegal votes that Milosevic wanted in Kosovo. Belgrade sent its envoys in Kosovo to convince the remaining Serbs to take part in the elections in Serbia and vote for Milosevic. Yet it was his fatal policy that created so many problems even for them in Kosovo by organizing them to commit crimes against the Albanians, and after NATO's presence, having to leave Kosovo from fear of revenge. Milosevic also wants the 100 thousand Kosovon Serbs to boycott the registration of the population in Kosovo and not participate in its local elections organized by the UN. It seems that Milosevic is making a habit of dividing the Serbs from living with the Albanians and surrounding them in a ghetto.

Dan Everts, the OSCE ambassador in Pristina, declared that the Serbs have had all the chances to participate in the elections organized by the UN in Kosovo. "They are isolating themselves," he said.

Milosevic is not interested in Kosovon Serbs, just as he wasn't interested in the Serbs in Kraina, Croatia. Power is his main concern, even if there is turmoil on all sides. His hopes lay in the Kraina Serbs and the pro-Serb Montenegrins in Montenegro, who would make his totalitarian regime reign longer.

The possible scenarios of this autumn

The elections in Yugoslavia, comprising of six million in Serbia and 600 thousand in Montenegro, were boycotted by the coalition government in Montenegro led by Djukanovic, over two million Albanians, and others. After Milosevic and his allies' win, it is expected that Montenegro will proclaim independence. The Serb opposition will be involved in a real mess. There are chances that sections of the army and police may join the people. Milosevic may even attack the government forces in Montenegro, which amounts to some 20 thousand well-trained policemen. In this unequal war, the "humanitarian" intervention of NATO cannot be excluded, which even the US Secretary of State, Madeleine Albright, hasn't ignored. NATO, with some 5O thousand troops, is deployed in Kosovo, Albania, and along the borders with Montenegro, and Macedonia, which could push back part of the frontline. Under these circumstances, Kosovo might also proclaim its independence. After all the crimes committed by the Serbian army and police, and the independence of Montenegro, there is no way that Kosovo will accept to be connected to the Third Yugoslavia, which is being disintegrated without leaving any chance for a Fourth.

The Serbian opposition's failure in these "federal elections," in which Kosovo and Montenegro did not take part, was expected, as Milosevic would not have allowed a win on their side. His fears lay in Montenegro proclaiming independence and entering into negotiations with the "democratic" Belgrade, discussing the future of a new formulation which wouldn't go under the level of a confederation. Even in this version, Kosovo under a UN protectorate might use the right of referendum for its independent future. The analysts do not exclude the possibility that, after the violent riots in Serbia and Montenegro, NATO will reach Belgrade to calm the situation and not allow any massacres between the Serbs and the Montenegrins.

The Balkan autumn elections, including those in Macedonia and Albania, have a multi-dimensional importance, and the consequences could affect the Balkans and further afield. The Balkan Crisis of 1981 will end in Montenegro, it seems. Only Serbia will remain after this, and in order to be recognized by the world, it will need to go through all the democratic phases and international procedures to become a state that will no longer be called Yugoslavia.