Can Israel Spare Arafat?

Since the beginning of the uprising, Marwan al-Barghouthi has had a permanent presence on satellite television. One can't follow the news without encountering him speaking live from Ramallah, on camera or telephone.

The Israeli newspaper Maariv admitted this. It said the current uprising has turned Marwan al-Barghouthi into 'The hottest name' and revealed how the 40-year-old built his reputation within Fatah, and among the masses.

Maariv quoted a Fatah activist as saying, "The secret of Marwan's [reputation] is that he came from the people and belongs to the people." If he wants to be in the leadership, wearing suits and being chauffeur driven in a Mercedes, it wouldn't be difficult for him. But he chose to be tied to the people."

Who is Barghouthi?

Barghouthi was head of the student federation at Bir Zit University and through this position led Fatah's youth activities. He was arrested several times before assuming a leading mission in the uprising. Deported to Jordan, he could only follow up the movement's affairs. He was among a group of people who returned to the occupied territories after the Oslo agreement. Directly after his return, Barghouthi was elected secretary general of Fatah's higher action committee in the territories. His post was lost recently to Hussein al-Sheikh due to Arafat's support of the latter. But Barghouthi's powers have remained intact.

Militant group in the movement

Maariv and Israeli analysts said that Barghouthi has become a source of mutiny against the Palestinian president and that he was leading clashes.

Such analysis was initiated by an article written by British journalist Patrick Seal in the London-based al-Hayat (Oct. 8). He said, "A militant leadership in the military wing, the Fatah movement's militia, is becoming prominent in Palestine, and is a direct challenge to Palestinian President Yasser Arafat's authority".

This story was not written to be taken lightly. If true, the analysis of the uprising and its future, or any other uprising, and necessarily the future of the implementation of the Oslo agreement on the territories, will shift to a completely different direction.

According to Seal, the Palestinian leader has lost "credibility among his people" and "the movement leadership, if the situation will thus end, prefers direct action against the Israelis rather than Arafat's negotiating tactics".

It is likely that Seal got his information from sources inside Fatah from those who are interested in leaking it to foreign circles, despite him stating his source as "unconfirmed reports in London and Paris".

The pressing question is here: What is the nature of the challenge Arafat is facing inside Fatah, either from Barghouthi, according to Maariv, or 'its militant wing,' according to Patrick Seal?

How can one link this issue to the controversy within Israeli political circles concerning Arafat and his eligibility to play the role of 'partner' with Barak. The issue is so hot that there is talk of getting rid of him, or waiting for an alternative partner who can be dealt with.

Mutiny on Fatah

It is not easy to say that mutiny against the Palestinian president's leadership has become imminent. This is especially true if this is planned by the most militant groups in the movement. Or, as the case may be, by someone the Israelis don't consider suitable enough to fill in as president, who will consequently sign a final agreement, and win enough political and popular legitimacy.

Overthrowing Arafat has always failed, even when the 'mutineers' have received logistical support from active parties in the game, like Syria. So, can ousting the leadership work after the man has become president, enjoying entourage, funds, accounts and ministers?

As for Marwan al-Barghouthi, it is easy to say, despite his special relationship with Jibril al-Rajoub (leader of preventive security and strong man in the West Bank) that talking about him as a threat to Arafat's position remains a matter of great exaggeration. The president's removal of Barghouthi in the Fatah elections and replacing him with Hussein al-Sheikh is an indication of Arafat's uneasiness. But Arafat has been known to change his deputies for many reasons, and not necessarily from fear of threat to his position.

Simply no one inside Fatah holds the qualifications to succeed Arafat. The successor should enjoy a consensus inside the movement for different reasons, some of which are internal. Others are related to countries with interests e.g., Egypt, Israel and America. Barghouthi is not eligible to succeed him legitimately or illegitimately.

There is one possibility in favour of Barghouthi confronting the leadership, and that is if an agreement is reached in the movement's important faction, led by Sakhr Habash, Hani al-Hassan and others, on pushing Barghouthi to the front, or, more importantly, to turn him against Arafat. This possibility seems very weak, especially as the so-called militant group regards Arafat a supporter rather than an opponent. That is what I heard from Hani al-Hassan, when he spoke to him about an Israeli trend inside Fatah and the opposition to an Arab trend, which he sees as one of its most important symbols.

One should say that there are other groups opposed to the so-called militant sections. Israeli newspapers (security information for sure) revealed: "a large number of senior officials in the Palestinian leadership and Arafat's security forces are not satisfied with the situation, and have advised him to stop the violence and killings, and resume political negotiations". Ron Ben Yashai, Yediot Ahronot's military correspondent, published this information.

Israelis and Arafat

A new phenomenon produced by the Aqsa uprising is the well-known controversy on the eligibility of Arafat as a partner in peace talks. Barak himself launched this bullet when he said, "A picture is being drawn, from which it becomes clear that we have no partner for peace". The general continued, "Arafat should return to his senses or one day he will be replaced," according to an Israeli analyst, Ouzi Benziman, in Haartz.

Shlomo Ben Ami, acting foreign minister, repeated the same statement, when he said that he was not sure whether reaching an agreement is possible with Arafat who rejects a hand stretched for peace. "We know that Arafat will not remain for ever, and we may find a better partner after him," he added.

Yediot Ahronot's military correspondent, Ron Ben Yashai, said, "Isreali intelligence and security agencies' estimates that Arafat is not capable of signing a final agreement have been strengthened. Thus, negotiations should be deferred until an alternative to Arafat appears".

The issue worsened when Chief-of-staff Moshe Yalonov threatened Arafat. He claimed, "No one in the Palestinian Authority, not even Arafat, enjoys special immunity". It is known that, however, Arafat enjoys this immunity with Egyptian/American guarantees.

In contrast, other views strongly oppose this trend in Israeli politics. Akifa Eldar, political correspondent of Haartz, said, "Arafat is not a simple client. He is the only available partner. Replacing him by Eriel Sharon (meaning a national unity government) is a return to a mix of Algeria-style militia warfare in the territories and a Bosnia-style civil war behind the green line. If this happens, both the right and left will be right, following the path towards the graveyard".

Shaoul Sheel of Yediout Ahronot wrote on October 17: "Arafat is not just a number. He is a symbol working in a changing reality".

His colleague in the newspaper, Ghi Bakhour, said, "Before the Aqsa uprising, Arafat, in my estimate, was the suitable title for reconciliation with Israel. But the uprising has shed a different light on him". "He has turned from an asset in the peace process to a burden."

Why the Controversy?

After taking a stark look at these claims, we can say that it is difficult to believe in the emergence of a new Israeli conviction with Arafat and his importance in signing a final agreement. The threats issued by leaders and analysts can be understood as psychological pressures on Arafat to hasten the final agreement. They can also be put in the context of a message to other leaders in the Authority that the issue of succession must take the Israeli view into account, as Israel alone will decide whether to offer the new successor 'immunity.' There is no doubt that Authority's leaders, especially in security, recognize the extent of the Israelis' penetration that allows them to jettison anyone, either directly or by blaming it on inter-differences in the Palestinian leadership.

The Israelis, particularly Barak, have begun to feel uneasy about what is going on. He wants to attain something quickly through which he can regain his shine as an historical political leader. But the situation the general is living in may force him to act foolishly, like his predecessor, Perez, where the magic bounces back onto the witch.

There is no doubt that all this has a connection with the Aqsa uprising. It is difficult to imagine how this can continue with the same strength without a decision from Arafat. This is possible from a security perspective, if there is no threat of ousting Arafat, or if Hamas, Jihad and other opposition powers challenge the Authority to allow the uprising to continue.

All this has a link with the future of the Oslo agreement. It either leads to a greater pace in executing it according to the 'Beilin-Abbas' document or something like it - the latter is the forerunner candidate for succession so far, as the Israelis are satisfied with him. Or, matters will be aggravated in an unpredictable way. The third possibility is that this delicate situation continues indefinitely.