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There are reports that opinion polls were conducted in the streets of Iran on the peoples' attitudes towards relations with the United States. These polls showed that large numbers of the population of Tehran support establishing relations with the US and do not see it as the arch enemy of the Islamic Republic.
These opinion polls are synchronized with more than one incident and signal on behalf of the Iranian regime's symbols regarding its attitude towards the US. First, Mahdi Krobi, the Iranian Parliamentary Speaker, met "coincidentally" with representatives of the US Administration in an American museum while visiting the US to attend the international parliamentary meeting.
Second, Iranian President Khatami attended the millennium summit, and the American President and his Secretary of State attended the session in which Khatami delivered his speech, which exclusively lashed out at the international forces that fight his country.
This, of course, does not negate the attitudes that reject the foundation of relations with the US, whether this concerns the General Guide Rafsanjani, Head of the Exigency Council, or other politicians symbolizing the conservative trend.
These signals do not also mean that the reformist trend, headed by Khatami, has relinquished principles by being caught up in the establishment of relations with the US, foremost among which is the retrieval of funds frozen in American banks since the early years of the Revolution. These constants also include an apology for American interference in Iranian affairs starting from the 1950's of Mussadaq's era till the Revolution of Khomeini, in addition to the US stance that places Iran on the top of the list of the countries supporting terrorism.
What are the implications of these signals for Iranian internal affairs and the coming presidential elections?
It is clear now that the conflict between the Reformists and Conservatives is taking a new turn. The Reformists have succeeded in winning most of the parliamentary seats and the Conservatives have managed to tighten the grip on the Reformists by stopping Reformist newspaper publications and entering into ideological and physical clashes with its advocates, especially youths.
Neither Khatami nor anyone else has announced his intention to contest the coming presidential elections. Although the Reformists insist on nominating Khatami for the battle and don't intend to nominate anybody else, in order to avoid a split over votes. Khatami is trying to exploit this and the failure of the Conservatives to nominate Hashemi Rafsanjani to contest in the presidential elections next spring. This is an act that would be an historic precedence in the region where a former president contests new presidential elections. All this shrouds the candidates to turn the election in Khatami's favour.
Furthermore, Khatami announced on more than one occasion that he had not decided whether he would run for election or not. This is considered an electoral tactic that delays attacks on him and his supporters till a later stage when he will be more ready to face abuse.
However, advocates of the Reformist trend have warned that the troubles which President Khatami and his Reformist program are exposed to might compel him to resign or stand down in the coming elections. This is a clear indication that made the streets of Iran antagonize the Conservatives' assault on the President and his supporters.
Ambiguity…Why?
Has the Iranian President become tired of devoting his great efforts to halt and face the Conservatives' attack on him, instead of concentrating on the country's accomplishments regarding his Reformist project on the political and economic arenas inside and outside Iran?
Does the Iranian President feel that the escalating conflict between the Conservatives and the Reformists endangers internal security to the extent that the security forces may be brought in? This is despite them being subject to the Conservative trend, and yet still show neutrality. If the security forces intervene in favour of the Conservatives, the results will not be in favor of Khatami. On the contrary, they will cause a setback in reform, as it will march towards what will be called "institutionalization of the Revolution."
Does the Iranian President feel that he will not be able to offer more than what he already offered at this stage? The features of the coming stage have started to be embodied in more acts of institutionalization and opening up. The coming phase needs new symbols, which enjoy new capabilities and different kinds of support (stronger and wider). Will the Iranian President postpone his candidature until a coming stage by the beginning of which he should have achieved more than his target?
First, delaying confrontation with the Conservatives is an act sought by the Conservatives themselves through non-announcement of their candidates so far.
Second, completing the foundation of strong bases for his advocates through having new members from the Bazaar and the Religious Institutions. Polarizing the attitude of the General Guide, who has not revolted against Khatami yet, but has adopted stances different from those of the 1997 elections, during which Khatami was fully supported by Khameini.
Third, using the foreign card adds to his strength. This can be understood through the above-mentioned signals regarding relations with the US or through other signals regarding relations with other regional forces, such as Egypt and Saudi Arabia. Improvement in relations will not be used by Khatami as a form of pressure because it may do harm to his stance with the Conservatives who accuse the Reformists of resorting to foreign support.
However, this pressure may benefit Khatami in two directions. The first is by sending signals to the American side that the Iranian regime is gradually abandoning "extremism;" thus it is in need of moral and material support, or at least by stopping its attack on it - something that will give it confidence vis-à-vis its rivals. Second, Khatami's supporters in general and the Reformists in particular will regain more confidence. This will embarrass the Conservatives and compel them to accept a compromise regarding the exchange of positions, especially as the Conservative trend has been challenging the Reformist one and forcing them into a defensive position during this period. This might be a justification for Khatami and the Reformist trend to resort to the streets
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