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“The next war in the Middle East will be fought over water, not politics.” |
Francesca De Châtel reports from Paris on her visit to the former Secretary General of the United Nations, Boutros Ghali, and his convictions about possible water wars in the 21st century.
Professor Boutros Boutros Ghali, the ex-Secretary General of the United Nations, has said he still believes water scarcity could lead to war in the 21st century. He reiterated the concern he first voiced in 1985 when he said that "the next war in the Middle East will be fought over water, not politics."
He predicts that explosive population growth and the intensification of agricultural cycles throughout the Middle East and Africa will put great pressure on the already-dwindling water reserves of the region - a pressure that could result in armed conflict. Today, on the eve of the Third World Water Forum, he has again called for cooperation, not confrontation, between the countries facing the looming threat of water scarcity.
The Nile Basin: A Perfect Example
Taking the Nile Basin as an example of the difficulties involved in equitable water distribution, Boutros Ghali explained that current use of Nile waters is sure to increase as riparian countries develop their agriculture and their economy. Countries like Sudan and Ethiopia today still rely on rain to water their crops; once they embrace irrigated agriculture, their downstream neighbor Egypt will inevitably receive less water. If in addition population figures in the region continue to soar, he foresees serious consequences.
"They will all be vying for the same water and the situation will be so dramatic that they will take to arms. Water may not be the apparent reason for the conflict, but it will certainly lie at its origins. If, for instance, 50,000 refugees cross the border from Ethiopia to Sudan because of drought and they attack a village, then Sudan will attack Ethiopia over this: ostensibly this will not be a conflict about water, but the problem of water will nevertheless lie at the root of this military intervention."
A Long History in Water Affairs
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| Sadat's offer of the waters of the Nile to Israel created public outrage in Egypt and beyond. |
Boutros Ghali has long recognized the gravity of the water question in the Middle East. During his period as Egypt's minister of foreign affairs from 1977 to 1991, he repeatedly witnessed that emotions can run high over the sharing of the region's most precious resource.
Thus, when President Sadat offered the waters of the Nile to Israel in a bid to open discussions about the West Bank and Gaza, there was public outrage in Egypt and beyond, with upstream countries protesting that the Nile waters were not President Sadat's to distribute at will. Boutros Ghali sees this as just one example of how water can become a political issue.
"It is interesting to see how water was used as a political tool here. Water lies at the core of the problems in Israel. This is why [the Israelis] are interested in the Occupied Territories; not for the territory, but for the water within that territory. The problem of water will definitely have to be addressed [as part of a peace agreement]: Palestinians only have access to about 18 per cent of water within the Occupied Territories. This inequality needs to be resolved."
In 1978 tensions over water reached a new peak when President Sadat threatened Ethiopia, which controls 85 per cent of the Nile waters, with military intervention if it embarked on any development projects that might affect the flow of the Nile northwards to Egypt. The incident was not well timed for Boutros Ghali: he had been working to strengthen Egypt's relationships with its downstream neighbors and initiate a dialogue between riparian states.
"Water was my main obsession," he remembers. "I tried to raise awareness of the importance of cooperation between riparian states over the sharing of the Nile waters; I wanted to show Egyptians that the security of Egypt is related to the south, to Sudan and Ethiopia, rather than to the east and Israel."
"Fraternity" Demands Oil for Water
In this context Boutros Ghali created an organisation that brought together the ministers of irrigation of the nine riparian states: Sudan, Egypt, Ethiopia, Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania, Burundi, Rwanda and Congo. Called Undugu, which means fraternity in Swahili, the group aimed to build a comprehensive development plan in the Nile Basin.
The ambitious scheme proposed by Egypt outlined the construction of a series of hydroelectric dams along the Nile, which would create a network of hydropower plants through the region. The generated electricity would then be exported to other regions in exchange for hard currency; an electricity grid that covered Uganda's proposed Inga Dam and Egypt's Aswan Dam would transfer power to the networks of Jordan, Syria, Turkey and beyond to the European Community.
Unfortunately, lack of trust between member states and political instability in Ethiopia, Sudan and Uganda meant the project was doomed to failure. "From the beginning there was mistrust between members: upstream countries were suspicious of Egypt's demands and wanted something in exchange for the water they would cede to Egypt. They even said that they would demand a barrel of oil for each barrel of water they gave away."
The Technical/Political See-Saw
Boutros Ghali is pensive: "[It] raises the question whether the water problem can be solved on a technical level only, or whether you need a political dimension. My belief is that you need a political dimension; you cannot receive from an upstream country without offering something in exchange.
"I had a discussion with the Egyptian minister of irrigation. He believed the problems should be solved on a technical level and that introducing politics only complicated things. But my theory was quite the opposite: unless there is political consensus among members, it is impossible to seek assistance from international organisations and donor countries on a technical level."
Boutros Ghali still believes that the threat of water wars in the Nile Basin can be averted through the creation of an international organisation that monitors and coordinates the distribution of water according to a set of objective criteria. Emphasising the importance of a foreign mediator, he says a higher body needs to be brought in to play a facilitating role between member states and to ensure the criteria set by the organisation are observed.
"One of the problems of setting up projects in developing countries is that they are not able to embrace long-term projects; they are only interested in finding short-term solutions," he says. He believes an international organisation could provide a solid base on which to build a sustainable and lasting collaboration project in the Nile Basin.
At first sight the recently created Nile Basin Initiative (NBI) appears to satisfy these requirements. Backed by international organisations such as the World Bank and the United Nations Development Project, the NBI is endorsed by all riparian states and aims to achieve "sustainable socio-economic development through the equitable utilisation of (…) Nile Basin water resources. Poverty and ignorance complicate any kind of reform in these countries."
| "Poverty and ignorance complicate any kind of reform in these countries." Boutros Ghali |
Yet like its predecessor Undugu, the NBI is wrestling with the long history of mistrust between the nine riparian states. Its initiatives to date have all focussed on confidence-building; working on the so-called "win-win projects" that are beneficial to all and postponing the resolution of key issues to a later date. The question is when these issues will be addressed and whether the institution will be sAtrong enough to resolve the inevitable conflicting interests of member states.
While the political dimension has to play a crucial role in the future resolution of water shortage, Boutros Ghali believes raising awareness at a community level is also important. He explains that there is no tradition of restricting water use, or of encouraging thriftiness: people don't attach value to water because it is free. "The distribution of water in the city is very cheap, and the distribution of water on the land is gratis. The day you put a tax on water, people will behave differently."
But he admitted that addressing water scarcity was a complex challenge in the developing world. "Poverty and ignorance complicate any kind of reform in these countries," he says. "If you tell people they should save water because there will be scarcity in 10 years, they will say to you: 'I don't even know how I will find food for my children tomorrow, so don't talk to me about the problems in the next 10 years. Allah will solve the problems that lie 10 years away."
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