Climate Counts Down to Copenhagen

Global warming will put the lives of many creatures in danger.

New Kyoto Agreement

It is not the first time the UN has attempted to reach a global consensus on how to tackle climate change. COP-15, the name the UN is giving the upcoming conference in Copenhagen, is the 15th in a long line of conferences with the same aim.

The first conference was held in Berlin, where the Berlin Mandate was formed. It was the first attempt by the UN convention on climate change to address concerns over the ability of individual countries to implement the changes needed. Since then, one conference has been held for negotiations every year.

The Kyoto Protocol was adopted into the UN's mandate in 1997. Today, 183 nations are signed up to its aims to reduce emissions by 5 percent below 1990 levels. However, it has not been without its controversies.

As industrialized nations were forecast to produce the most significant contribution to climate change, the Protocol required them to reduce their emissions by a greater quantity than developing nations. Both the Clinton and Bush administrations in the US have refused to ratify the treaty on the grounds that it is unfair.

President George Bush explained the US position in 2001 saying, "The world's second-largest emitter of greenhouse gases is the People's Republic of China. Yet, China was entirely exempted from the requirements of the Kyoto Protocol. India and Germany are among the top emitters. Yet, India was also exempt from Kyoto." (The White House)

Greenpeace have also complained about a loop-hole which has allowed Australia to set it base line unusually high, rather than basing their aims on 1990 emission levels. Many environmentalists believe the targets set by Kyoto are too optimistic, while others believe they are too low.

Some also consider the choices made in Kyoto too costly. The STERN report, commissioned by the UK government, forecast that one percent of gross domestic product(GDP) would be required to implement the changes needed in the UK. Some economists are calling for an entirely different approach which will enable policy changes to be implemented cost effectively. These points are all expected to be negotiated at the Copenhagen conference which has been set to decide on what to do when the Kyoto Protocol expires in 2012. (HM Treasury)

Common But Differentiated Responsibilities

Simply put, developing nations including those in the Middle East and Africa believe that as they have not contributed as many emissions in the past, they are less responsible for cutting them. Ban Ki-moon, secretary general for the UN, called for wealthy nations to help the least developed nations prepare for climate change, as an extension of the Kyoto agreement's promise to acknowledge "common but differentiated responsibilities."

China, Russia and India are all rapidly developing nations with substantial carbon emissions which are far larger than when the Kyoto Protocol was first written in the 1990s, but they claim their emissions are essential to ensure the industrialization and economic development of their countries. However, any reductions they do commit to dwarf the contributions of industrialized countries, as China is the second biggest emitter of carbon in the world and India the 6th.

But there is hope. Developing countries, including Bangladesh in particular, have successfully incorporated 'green' policy into legislation. And though both China and India have not provided any hard numbers regarding how much they are willing to reduce their emissions by, both countries agreed to reduce their emissions at the UN Climate Summit held in September as part of the run up to talks in Copenhagen in December.

Negotiations Proceeding Slowly

In September, UK Prime Minister Gordon Brown used his position as international statesman of the year to call for world leaders to attend the conference alongside ministers, scientists and economists. Speaking in New Statesman he said, "The negotiations are proceeding so slowly that a deal is in grave danger. But I believe it can be done. And if it is necessary to clinch the deal, I will personally go to Copenhagen to achieve it."

Many are now calling for heads of state to meet before Copenhagen to decide on clear aims for the conference. This move followed pressure from environmental groups demanding leaders attend the conference in person.

The next leader to announce their presence at the conference was US President Barack Obama, who is going amidst much confusion over the US's plans. In order to cut the carbon footprint caused by travel and accommodation at the conference, world leaders are only allowed one aide, normally the country's environment minister.

Climate change is complicated, and following on from so many similar conferences which have failed to reach a consensus means nobody is willing to guess which way this meeting will go. However, Yvo de Boer, executive secretary of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, has expressed the UN's wish for clarity on COP-15's aims.

He said in a recent interview that the four essential points which must be internationally agreed upon are:

1. "How much are industrialized countries willing to reduce their emissions of greenhouse gases?"

2. "How much are major developing countries such as China and India willing to do to limit the growth of their emissions?"

3. "How is the help needed by developing countries to reduce their emissions and adapt to the impacts of climate change going to be financed?"

4. "How is that money going to be managed?"

It is yet to be seen whether Yvo de Boer's aims will be achieved, but what is for sure is that the UN Climate Change Conference this year is going to be one of the toughest ones yet.

Sources:

"Ban Ki-Moon: G20 Must Help Poor Countries." China.org.cn. 1 April 2009. Accessed 11 Oct. 2009.

Hasan, Mehdi and Macintyre, James. "This Will be a 'Big Choice' Election". New Statesman. 24 Sept. 2009. Accessed 11 Oct. 2009.

"President Bush Discusses Global Climate Change." The White House. 11 June 2001. Accessed 11 Oct. 2009.

"Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change." HM Treasury. Accessed 11 Oct. 2009.

von Bülow, Michael. "The Essentials in Copenhagen." UN COP-15. 16 March 2009. Accessed 11 Oct. 2009.

Hannah Flynn is a science and technology writer living and working in London. She has a Biology degree and specialises in writing about women's health, you can contact her on healthAndscienceATiolteamDOTcom.