Khamenei's speech has sent reassuring messages to the Reformists, but it contained a warning against escalating the situation says Dr. Pakinam Al-Sharqawy, assistant professor of political science at Cairo University.
Being an expert on Iranian politics, Al Sharqawy argues that the government will suppress upcoming protests violently.
In an exclusive interview for IslamOnline.net, Al-Sharqawy analyzed the speech of Iran's Supreme Leader, clarifying the messages behind it.
IslamOnline.net: What was the message of Ayatollah Khamenei’s speech?
Al-Sharqawy: The speech aimed at creating a balance between the members of Iran’s political elite as it contained a number of reassuring messages to the Reformists. But at the same time, it involved a threat of the possible consequences of escalating the situation further.
The Supreme Leader criticized the TV debates that preceded the elections. Do you think that such unprecedented debates will not take place again?
His opinion about the debates was balanced; he said that they had both negative and positive aspects. He praised the TV debates as a campaigning tool, but at the same time, he made it clear that the participants should have behaved more responsibly.
| "The speech has put the ball in the Reformists’ court." |
Khamenei condemned the accusations made against prominent Iranian political figures, such as Hashemi Rafsanjani and Nateq Nuri. Do you think that Ahmadinejad surprised the Supreme Leader by the corruption allegations he made on TV?
Iranian politics are governed by two types of factors: institutional and personal. The institutional factor here is constant because the policies are the same. However, the personal factor plays a major role in the case of Ahmadinejad. The incumbent president is a reckless, confrontational personality, and he probably take Khamenei unawares sometimes. Yet, the differences between the two senior officials are not about the policies, but rather about the ways of implementing them. And those differences can usually be contained.
Iran’s Supreme Leader admitted in his speech that there is corruption in the government. To what extent is this significant?
I find nothing significant about this. All governments say the same thing.
Khamenei denied ordering the crackdown on students at the universities’ dormitories. Why did he do so in your opinion?
I think he was trying to deliver the message that he was not responsible for what happened during the past few days, but he will be responsible for what is next. In other words, the government would take upcoming protests seriously, and he stated it explicitly that he does want the streets to be used as political platforms anymore.
The Supreme Leader stated clearly that the protests will not force the government to change its stance. How would the Reformists react to this in your opinion?
I think the speech has put the ball in the Reformists’ court. Khamenei made it clear that they are not allowed to protest in the streets anymore, and that the Guardian Council would only do a partial recount of the votes. So, the Reformists have only two options now: either to escalate the situation further, or to accept the proposed settlement. But if they choose escalation, they should be ready for the consequences. The coming hours would be critical.
Khamenei warned of terrorists who might use the protests to perform sabotage activities. Do you think that events will take a different turn?
I think the use of the word “terrorists” is an indication that the upcoming events would be more violent, and that protestors would be regarded as terrorists, which will necessitate using different methods to prevent demonstrations.
| "Obama is in a delicate situation because he does not want to antagonize the Islamic system in Iran." |
Do you think that the Iranian system can afford suppressing protests violently?
The Supreme Leader has remained silent for a week because he knows that resorting to violence would be a serious decision. He has warned people in his speech. I think the government will do it gradually, but it will do it eventually.
What do you think of Khamenei’s comments on foreign intervention in Iran’s internal affairs?
He did not talk a lot about the US stance because Obama’s statements were brief and were not provocative. Obama is in a delicate situation because he cannot avoid commenting on the developments in Iran, and at the same time he does not want to antagonize the Islamic system.
On the other hand, the European stance on Iran’s current crisis was too critical of the system; therefore, Khamenei’s statements about the European reaction to the crisis were more aggressive.
How do you explain the international concern about the current situation in Iran?
Iran will be the focus of attention of the world powers during the upcoming years. The United States will not change its policies, but it will change its approach and methods. And Iran would be an important partner in the process of revamping the US agenda in the region.
Khamenei finished his speech by addressing the Occulted Imam. What is the significance of this?
It is an expression of the Shiite mentality, in which religion and politics are intertwined. The mention of the Occulted Imam in speeches happens frequently in Iran.
? mTr
|
