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Could the Iraqi elections reflect demoracy under the US occupation? (Reuters photo) |
The provincial elections in Iraq will be a transformative test case for Iraq as it enters its second round of voting nearly six years after US-led forces invaded in part on a wave of democratic reform.
Voters have increasingly expressed their bitterness toward the incumbent government, saying those in power have exploited the people while the public suffers from a fluid security environment and a general lack of basic social services.
Nouri al-Maliki Vs Political Rifts
Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki and his Dawa Party, however, have enjoyed popular support in the midst of a general sense of improvement as the Shiite premier looks to consolidate his power by pushing for a stronger central government.
Maliki recently told a delegation of tribal leaders in Basra, that voters need to bring provincial council leaders to power that would steer the country in a positive direction, adding that a strong central government does not equate to weak provinces.
| In a poll, 42 percent of the eligible voters said they were likely to back secular candidates. |
"We need those who assume senior positions to be characterized by honesty and efficiency, because efficiency alone is not enough in reconstructing the country," Maliki said.
Despite his popularity with the people, however, growing political rifts make the provincial elections a test run for later national elections, where Maliki is expected to seek another term in office.
Maliki told a group of tribal elders in Najaf in late January while on the campaign trail for his State of Law slate; meanwhile, that sectarian trends and partisan politics were destroying the emerging democracy in Iraq.
A Secular or A Religious Candidate?
A poll conducted by the government-backed National Media Center on Jan. 20, found that 42 percent of the eligible voters said they were likely to back secular candidates, while 31 percent said they favor candidates supported by the various religious parties.
In the provinces, the NMC said Karbala anticipated the highest turnout with around 85 percent of eligible voters expected to participate, while Najaf had the lowest, though the statistics were not provided. Overall, 73 percent of those surveyed said they plan to head to the polls on Saturday.
Iraq holds provincial elections in 14 of the 18 provinces, as the vote is delayed in Kirkuk and the three Kurdish provinces – Erbil, Dahuk and Sulaymaniyah.
The low turnout anticipated in Najaf may be telling for the influential Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council of cleric Abdul Aziz al-Hakim, which is pushing for a vast regional structure in the southern Shiite areas of the country.
SIIC is expected to make significant gains in the provincial elections, as the party has a huge influence in the streets and is able to gain sympathy from broad sections of the Shiite community.
The Independent High Electoral Commission of Iraq passed tough campaign measures for the provincial elections, prohibiting the overt use of religious symbols. The streets of Najaf, however, are strewn with campaign posters depicting religious imagery despite claims from Iraq's leading Shiite cleric, Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, that he is not backing any particular slate in the elections.
Beyond confidence in the current leadership, the Jan. 31 election is expected to be a test of the religious ideology that has held sway in the political landscape of Iraq. Furthermore, SIIC ties to Iran may play out in the Iraqi polls as a referendum on external affairs. Iran sees a partner in SIIC and is keen on securing partnerships with a friendly government in Iraq.
SIIC opponents, for their part, may face a difficult time at the polls despite claims from the Sadrist Movement of cleric Moqtada Sadr that they expect to take as many as a third of the contested seats in the south.
Basra
This reflects a moderate shift in the political climate in Basra. Maliki initiated a spring offensive in Basra, Saulat al-Fursan, to drive Shiite militias loyal to Sadr from the south, ultimately requiring Iranian intervention to reach a cease-fire. Sadrists, who are running as independents, have seemingly abandoned their hopes of winning back any level of control in the south, however, and instead may be positioning themselves to make sure others do not gain control.
Former Basra Gov. Wail Abdul Latif, meanwhile, led an attempt at securing enough public support to move forward with a bid to establish a federal region in Basra similar to Iraqi Kurdistan, though the measure failed by half in January. Many of the dominant parties, notably the prime minister's Dawa Party and the Sadrists, opposed the measure.
| The well-funded SIIC, may hold its ground among the Shiite community in the south despite modest gains from its rivals. |
Provincial officials in Basra and observers of the situation suggested the measure failed because some of the Shiite parties had acted in concert to thwart the move, but advocates pledged to try again with the measure as the political dynamic in the south remains fluid.
"The failure of the initiative may not reflect a big power shift," said Namo Abdulla, a journalist working in Erbil. "But, Maliki's Dawa Party may get some more votes in the region as he has appeared as some sort of a charismatic strong leader to many Arabs."
Basra is the economic hub of Iraq, with the only access to the trade routes to the Persian Gulf and a thriving oil industry. The well-funded SIIC, however, may hold its ground among the Shiite community in the south despite modest gains from its rivals.
Diyala: Arabs and Kurds
Meanwhile, the landscape in the volatile eastern Diyala province makes the coming provincial elections telling on many fronts, notably the evolution of Iraqi Kurdistan and the fate of the Sunni al-Qaida in Iraq.
Al-Qaida in Iraq in 2006 claimed the provincial capital Baqubah as the capital of its Islamist caliphate, establishing courts, prisons and patrolling the streets in force.
Tensions between the Kurdish Peshmerga security force and the Iraqi national army, meanwhile, reached a boiling point in operations during the summer, as both sides contested control over disputed areas of the province, notably in the city of Khanaqin.
With the Iraqi elections postponed in the Kurdish provinces, the results in several of the northern areas of Diyala, which the Kurds view as their own, may shape the political landscape for Iraq not only during national elections, but also at the polls when the Kurdish provinces eventually vote for their provincial leaders.
Sunni Arabs in Diyala make up the majority, with Kurds centered in Khanaqin and nearby Jalawlah. Voter intimidation from roving gunmen may influence voter turnout in Diyala, opening the door for Sunni gains in the province.
"What is more, the Kurds who govern the province right now after they won the post of governor in the last elections in the absence of many Sunnis, who boycotted the election, this time are very likely to lose the post," says Abdulla, the Erbil-based journalist.
| "Mosul is a place for all Iraq's ethnic and religious communities." President Barzani |
Kurds, however, should hold the northern parts of Diyala beyond Khanaqin and Jalawlah in some of the smaller cites, like Qarah Tappah, possibly forecasting the evolution of the disputed Kurdish territories.
Saddam Hussein attempted to alter the regional demographics in much of the oil-rich region claimed by the Kurds through an "Arabization" campaign, which displaced scores of the native ethnic groups with a Sunni Arab population. Ongoing disputes in the northern regions left over from the Baath Party era may spill over to the voting booth, particularly in the provincial capital of Ninawah, Mosul, where security and violent rivalries continue despite security gains elsewhere.
President Massoud Barzani of the Kurdistan Regional Government told a gathering of tribal elders in the north that his government was making no plays on Mosul in the Jan. 31 polls. A spate of attacks on minority religious groups, notably Christians, erupted during the fall, leaving many to raise allegations as the Kurds were looking to push their identity across the north by displacing minority groups.
"Mosul is a place for all Iraq's ethnic and religious communities -- Kurds, Arabs, Turkomens, Assyrians and Chaldeans," Barzani stressed. "Mosul is an example of peaceful coexistence and tolerance of all these communities."
In 2007, provincial council leaders agreed on a power-sharing arrangement to divide authority in the Kurdish provinces equally among Kurds, Arabs and Turkomen, with 4 percent allocated to the Christian population. This measure stalled, however, leaving Kurds largely in control.
Democratic & Safe Elections Under US Occuptation & Violence?
Meanwhile, Iraqi security officials said they would offer special police escorts for candidates running for provincial seats in Mosul as several candidates were assassinated in recent weeks.
For their part, Sunni Arabs, who boycotted elections in 2005, may be disappointed in the results of the elections in parts of the country beyond their base of control in Anbar and other western and central provinces.
"Although I am less certain about how critical the second round of these elections will turn out to be, I am very concerned about overly high electoral expectations on the part of many, especially Sunni Arabs," says Wayne White, an advisor to the bipartisan Iraq Study Group serving as an adjunct scholar at the Middle East Institute in Washington D.C.
White says Sunnis may be overconfident following the 2005 boycott as they consistently quote their demographic representation well above what most would consider accurate.
| The elections will also provide a forecast of the viability of an emerging democracy under US occupation. |
"Additionally, in the all-important greater Baghdad province, from which a substantial portion of the Sunni Arab population was driven by sectarian cleansing on the part of various Shiite elements during 2006-2007, the Sunni vote surely will be considerably lower than it would have been 3 years ago," he says.
The Anbar Awakening Councils, however, may emerge as a greater official political force in the provincial elections. The Awakening Councils wrestled control away from al-Qaida in Anbar in 2005, ushering in the paramilitary Sons of Iraq force as an organic security unit.
Sunni tribal leaders in the Awakening Councils note they have shed a great deal of blood for their country and, at least in areas around Fallujah, the provincial capital of Anbar, they may take their seat finally at the tables of power.
The Iraqi Study Group, the US commission tasked with finding a "new way forward" in Iraq in 2006, urged planners to implement provincial elections as soon as reasonably feasible.
"They are necessary to restore representative government," the group said.
The provincial elections will not only be a referendum on the current political system, but also provide a forecast of the viability of an emerging democracy under US occupation.
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