Analysis

Democratic Neocons: Obama's "Change" Team

Members of the New Obama Administration

Obama's Change may prove to be nothing but a copy of Bush and his administration. (Reuters Photo)

However, what the Americans did not say — and is important to the Arab region — is that those named by Obama are not only "Clintonists", but also belonging to the hawkish conservative "Democrats", like the neoconservatives in the Republican Party. The main danger that is feared they may pose is that many Arab and Muslim dossiers are expected to be transformed at their hands into bloody ones.

It is not true that only the Republicans do represent the conservative, fundamentalist, and extremist wing in the United States of America. Yet, a general current called "the fundamentalist conservative current" has emerged in the US since September 11th, 2001. This current includes both Republicans and Democrats.

This new current inside the Democratic Party — called the "New Democrats" or the "Neoconservative Democrats" — has the same ideas held by the neocons within the Republican Party and is linked to the hawks of this party. Indeed, it follows the same policies as to the hostile attitude toward the Arabs and Muslims and the bias to Tel Aviv. The neocon Democrats adopt "a progressive strategy for defeating Jihadism and defending freedom," as mentioned in the title of a book authored by the chairman of the Progressive Policy Foundation, one of the conservative, Democratic thinking centers. Some, such as Peter Beinart, the editor of the New Republic newspaper, call for the return to the cold war principles laid down by President Truman, with the aim of expanding the war on terror.

This new Obama team is largely composed of the prominent figures of the conservative hawks who support the war in Iraq and the shift toward escalation in Afghanistan and Pakistan and igniting the already burning region between India and Pakistan following Mumbai bombings.

It is noted as well that Obama has named some figures known for their extreme support for war against some Arab and Muslim countries, notably Sudan. This has raised doubts regarding the change of which Obama spoke about, and that he may prove to be nothing but a copy of Bush and his administration; the only thing that will undergo change is raising the "the Republican Party" sign.

Activists in "Save Darfur"

In 2004, the foundation of a campaign against the alleged genocide in Darfur was declared in what was called "Save Darfur Alliance" comprising 180 organizations. One of the aims of its organizers was to attract such personalities as Obama, Hillary (the new secretary of state), Susan Rice (American UN ambassador in Obama administration), and other members of the Congress. 

This alliance exercised pressure on the members of the Congress and the White House and focused on sanctions and military intervention, rather than peaceful solution to the dispute between Khartoum and the rebel movements in Darfur. The advocates of this alliance called for the siege of Sudan, enforcing a no-fly zone in Darfur — similar to that enforced in Northern Iraq — and launching military strikes like those launched by Clintonists against Al-Shefaa' factory in Khartoum in 1998 under the pretext that the factory produced chemical weapons.

Obama joined Hillary Clinton and the former Republican candidate John McCain in issuing a joint statement — at the time of the preliminary presidential elections — that "Save Darfur Alliance" worked on its circulation. In the statement, they accused Khartoum of committing "savage crimes against civilians in Darfur" and warned that "the coming administration would pursue the goals of opposing what is going on in Darfur with unrelenting determination."

Susan Rice — an American of African origin —, who headed the American delegation to the United Nations, supports tougher action in Darfur. Previously, she said in her testimony before the Congressional Committee for Foreign Affairs in 2007 that she was in favor of military action in Darfur to force the Sudanese government to cease the killings in the province.

Withdrawal From Iraq, If Needed      

The most significant question about Obama's neocon team has emerged clearly when he named Joseph Biden, the creator of the theory of the division of Iraq into three separate states and the one who said "I am Zionist", as his vice president. This has been emphasized by Obama declaring his contestant in the race toward the White House, Hillary Clinton, who calls herself "a military hawk", as secretary of state.

Furthermore, he named the former Commander of the Atlantic Forces Gen. James Jones as his National Security Advisor, and the Governor of Arizona Janet Napolitano as Minister of Internal Security. Also, he announced that Robert Gates — "the conservative Republican" — would remain in his position as Secretary of Defense.

Those are extremist "conservative Democrats" who are no different from the outgoing "conservative Republicans". Many of them, particularly Hillary Clinton, were among the advocates of waging war on Iraq. And now they do not support withdrawal from Iraq unless necessary preparations are in place and unless withdrawal is needed. With this in mind, Obama's promise to withdraw forces from Iraq within 16 months may be viewed as a mere promise that cannot be fulfilled.

Supporters of Israel, Silent on Gaza

James Jones is the only one in Obama's team who causes some worries for Israelis.

Choosing Hillary Clinton — who adopts a tough position toward the Palestinian rights and shows complete bias in favor of Israel and who pledged to "obliterate" Iran in case it attacked Israel — at the head of the American diplomacy has a highly significant connotation. However, some experts expect her to change a little during her post as a result of the political experience and dealing with the status quo.

What worries the Palestinians still further is that Obama named the Israeli Rahm Emanuel as White House Chief of Staff, the Jew David Axelrod as a Senior Advisor, and the conservative Jew, the former US ambassador to Cairo then to Tel Aviv Daniel Kurtzer as a special envy to the Middle East.

The danger of this latter who assumed the deanship of the religious Jewish Yeshiva College, is that he — along with Rahm Emanuel — is considered to be the writer of Obama's address before the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC). In this address, Obama said that he supported the Israeli control over all of Jerusalem (not to be negotiable as it was under the previous administrations).

James Jones is the only one in Obama's team who causes some worries for Israelis. He was one of the critics of the Israeli policy in the West Bank, and it was frequently stated that he, as the head of a committee appointed by President Bush to observe the situation in the West Bank, submitted a report about the Israeli violations to the American President. This report was kept concealed and unreleased.

Dealing With Iran

The position of the neocon Democratic current has a lot of communalities with the position of the conservatives in the Bush administration with regard to the Syrian and Iranian dossiers. Yet, Democrats put forth the idea of packaging the two in one deal. The idea suggests holding negotiations with Syria and offering further carrots instead of stick — as previously stated by Susan Rice — so as to incite it to turn away from the alliance with Iran, thus the position of Tehran would be weakened as far as negotiating the nuclear file is concerned.

Regarding Iran in particular, many members of this conservative team — particularly Hillary — believe that a military action must be taken against Tehran. Others, however, see that the possibility of launching preemptive military operations is a better option but after the new government gives precedence to the soft power by means of using economic, diplomatic, and cultural tools to influence Tehran, and also Damascus, and by holding "pragmatic and decisive negotiations" with both of them.

Earlier, Obama spoke during his election campaign of the possibility of holding dialogue with Iran, North Korea, and Cuba. But, he mentioned that his opposition to the war in Iraq did not mean that he would hesitate in using force if the American interests were jeopardized. Furthermore, he called for investment and expanding the US armed forces so as to remain the most powerful army "on earth".

Focusing on Afghanistan Over Iraq

The Bush policy toward the Pakistani-Afghani borders region — Waziristan — that's the tactic sporadic strikes, seems quite suitable to the administration of Obama. This is one of the reasons why he decided to keep the Secretary of Defense, Robert Gates, in his position. Gates supports more military focus on Afghanistan and Pakistan aimed at reducing the costs of war that exhaust the plans set for overcoming the financial crisis in America.

Since 2001, Bush administration has carried out 90 raids on the Pakistani border area thought to be the stronghold of the Pakistani Taliban and the Afghani Taliban; of these, 40 raids were launched in past October and November only. This option is expected to rise relatively, something which makes Pakistan Obama's future target of war, not Iraq which he considers a quagmire into which America got involved by mistake.

It seems that the sun of the neocon that is setting in the Republican Party is starting to rise on another place: inside the Democratic Party. Also, it seems that more Arabs and Muslims — particularly in Pakistan and Sudan — will suffer greatly from this new rising, scorching sun, as the Iraqis and Afghanis did suffer. However, what brings some feeling of relief is that their country — America — is caught up in a grinding financial crisis that is expected to hold those rushing hawks back for a while.

Muhammad Gamal Arafa is a political analyst in IslamOnline.net. He holds a BA and pre-MA in political science and has numerous research published in a wide range of publications mainly in Arabic.