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US President George W. Bush meets with First Vice President of the Government of National Unity of Sudan and President of the Government of Southern Sudan Salva Kiir in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington Jan. 5, 2009. (Reuters) |
This month, representatives of the Sudanese government and southern Sudan will meet in Washington, D.C. to discuss the implementation of the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) that ended one of the longest and bloodiest wars in Africa.
In 2002, the government of Sudan and southern Sudanese politicians began peace process to end the north-south conflict. After three years of negotiations, the Comprehensive Peace Agreement was signed between the ruling National Congress Party (NCP) and southern Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM) in January 2005.
The peace agreement gave autonomy to the southern region for the next six years and a referendum on self-determination for the south in 2011. The CPA included wealth and power sharing arrangements aimed at ending decades of economic and political neglect and marginalization of the southern region. The parties also agreed to reform the political and economic system in the country and end the monopoly of the northern elites that have ruled Sudan since independence.
During the negotiation process that led to the CPA, the international community completely neglected the conflict that broke out in 2003 in the western Sudanese province of Darfur. Ironically, when the international community decided to focus on Darfur, it completely forgot about the implementation of the CPA.
| Oil accounts for practically all revenue in the southern region, while it also remains the largest source of foreign currency for the government in Khartoum. |
Implementation of the CPA
Many reforms specified in the Comprehensive Peace Agreement are behind schedule. According to the International Crisis Group, the government of Sudan is systematically attempting to "undermine, delay, or simply ignore the elements called for in the CPA that would fundamentally alter the status quo and its grip on power."
After a period of cooperation, the SPLM pulled its ministers out of Khartoum in October 2007, accusing the government of failing to follow through on a peace agreement signed in 2005. The SPLM listed the disputes over the north-south border and the control of oil that lie in the south as their major concerns. After two months, the SPLM ministers returned to Khartoum and resumed their work, but the disagreements were never fully resolved.
The oil issue is especially important to both sides. Oil accounts for practically all revenue in the southern region, while it also remains the largest source of foreign currency for the government in Khartoum.
Southern Referendum for Independence
The referendum where the southerners will decide if they want to secede from Sudan and form an independent country is scheduled for 2011. The leaders of the Sudan People's Liberation Movement say that they are fully committed to achieve an independent state in southern Sudan in 2011.
Given the post-independence history of Sudan and the deep-rooted and protracted conflict between the north and south, a peaceful separation may be the best solution for Sudan.
According to the German Spiegel, the majority of people in the south are for partition. The southerners believe that the social and cultural gulf between northern and southern Sudanese "is too deep and the hatred too firmly rooted." But given the economic importance of the north since independence, thousands of people from the south have settled in the north and created strong business and social ties with the northern people.
Uncertain Future
| If the 2009 elections do not go according to plans of the northern elites, it should not come as a surprise if Sudan experiences yet another military coup in the near future. |
Even without considering the current conflict in Darfur, the future of Sudan is uncertain. Under the Comprehensive Peace Agreement, the national elections are scheduled in Sudan no later than July 2009. Andrew Natsios, the United States Special Envoy to Sudan in 2006-7, wrote in Foreign Affairs that the year 2009 "may be the most important in Sudan's postcolonial history: either the country holds free and fair multiparty elections or it disintegrates, plunging this volatile region into its most severe crisis yet."
The current regime led by Omar al-Bashir could easily be defeated in the upcoming pools by the people from the country's provinces who claim that the central government has marginalized them since independence. As Alex de Waal, one of the leading international Sudan experts writes in "War in Darfur and the Search for Peace," even though Darfur and other Sudan's provinces are poor and underdeveloped, they still "command the largest electorate and whenever there is an election, their votes are needed to deliver a ruling majority."
It should be noted that the current Sudanese regime, as well as the majority of the governments that ruled Sudan since independence, came to power through a military coup. If the 2009 elections do not go according to plans of the northern elites, it should not come as a surprise if Sudan experiences yet another military coup in the near future.
The southern Sudanese will probably choose independence in 2011. This could trigger instability and even another civil war in Sudan since the Arab controlled central government will not easily give away control over oil fields located mainly in the south. The north-south border is the place where the richest oil fields lie and both the north and south claim that this region belongs to them. In May 2008, the northern and southern troops have already clashed in the oil-rich town of Abyei located in the disputed border region.
If the international community does not take interest and put serious diplomatic pressures on both sides to fully implement the Comprehensive Peace Agreement and hold free elections this year, Sudan may plunge into yet another north-south war and destabilize the entire region.
Roots of the Problem
The roots of modern tensions and conflicts in Sudan lie in the policies implemented by the British colonial administration between 1899 and 1956. The policies first separated the Arab-dominated north and African-dominated south and led to southern underdevelopment. The decision by the British to reverse their policies and put the regions back together in the 1940s led to the northern domination in post-independence Sudan.
When Sudan became independent in 1956, the successive central governments, controlled by the northern Arab elites, continued to marginalize country's provinces. This consequently triggered the southern rebellion and two civil wars that have ravaged the country for the most part of the second half of the twentieth century, and the current Darfur rebellion.
The first war between the Arab and mainly Muslim north and African south populated by animists and Christians began on the eve of independence and lasted for almost twenty years. After a decade of peace, a new war broke out in 1983 and lasted for over two decades. The root causes of both wars include disputes over power, resources, religion, ethnicity, and self-determination.
The destruction caused by the second north-south war was enormous: over 4 million people were internally displaced, 600,000 took refuge in neighbouring countries, and 2 million died from fighting, starvation, and diseases.
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