Can Obama Solve Kashmir Dispute?

"It will be very hard to put Afghanistan on a long-term positive path without alleviating some of the Indo-Pakistan tensions," said Dormandy. (Google)

"It will be very hard to put Afghanistan on a long-term positive path without alleviating some of the Indo-Pakistan tensions," Xenia Dormandy of the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at Harvard University told the Christian Science Monitor on Friday, November 21.

During his presidential campaign, Obama has vowed to push for a diplomatic solution to the Kashmir dispute.

"(It would one of the) critical tasks for the next administration," he has told MSNBC.

Obama, who will be inaugurated America's 44th president on January 20, said that solving the Kashmir dispute will help Pakistan fully commit to fighting militant groups active in the border area with Afghanistan.

"We should try to resolve the Kashmir crisis so that [Pakistan] can stay focused – not on India, but on the situation with those militants."

Obama plans a regional strategy to tackle the deteriorating situation in Afghanistan, where US causalities this year were the highest since invading the country in 2001.

Obama also spoke with former president Bill Clinton to be his special envoy to the region.

Kashmir is divided into two parts and ruled by India and Pakistan, which have fought two of their three wars since the 1947 independence over the region.

Pakistan and the UN back the right of the Kashmir people for self-determination, an option opposed by New Delhi.

Backfire

But some analysts fear that Obama's intervention in the Kashmir dispute could backfire.

"So long as the Pakistani Army thinks that the Americans are on their side, they're not going to deal with India," said Raja Mohan, a member of India's National Security Advisory Board.

Mohan said the Indo-Pakistan relations have been improving, citing the recent opening of trade line between India and Pakistan.

Moreover, New Delhi and Islamabad have made behind-the-scene progress on the Kashmir issue, to the point that the two rivals have a tentative roadmap for how to resolve the dispute, he said.

Mohan said the progress was impeded by the resignation of former Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf in August.

The Indian analyst attributed the progress partly to Bush administration's decision to steer clear of the Kashmir dispute.

Mohan said Obama's entering the fray would disrupt the delicate balance, making it appear as if the US was merely trying to placate Pakistan in return for its support in Washington's war on terror.