Pakistanis Expect Change Under Obama

"I see a window of opportunity for Pakistan in Obama's victory," Iqbal told IOL

"I see a window of opportunity for Pakistan in Obama's victory," Ahsan Iqbal, a senior political analyst, told Islamonline.net on Saturday, November 8.

"Now, it's up to the political leadership of Pakistan to convince him to work to have relations between the two states rather then between the two individuals (Bush and Musharraf."

Obama, 47, was elected US president on Tuesday, after crushing his Republican rival John McCain. 

Obama, who will be inaugurated as the 44th US president on January 20, inherits an economy mired in financial crisis, wars in Afghanistan and Iraq and a nuclear showdown with Iran.

"I do not rule out the fact that Obama will never deviate from the prime objectives of America," said Iqbal, the central secretary information of the opposition Pakistan Muslim League (N).

"But he may change the strategy to achieve these objectives, which will be a lesser evil."

Abdul Khalique Ali, a Karachi-based senior political analyst, agrees.

"I don't expect a rapid difference in policies, but yes, there will be a difference," he told IOL.

"And this difference will not be because of Obama only. It will be because of the Democrats who generally support parliament and democracy, and believe in talks as against Republicans, who have an occupational thinking."

U-turn 

"I don't expect a rapid difference in policies, but yes, there will be a difference," Ali said

Experts believe that the economic crisis will force Obama to end the US military involvement in Iraq and Afghanistan.

"One thing is for sure that US troops will be pulled out of Iraq, however, we should not expect the same in case of Afghanistan," said Khalique.

"But there too, Democrats will or will have to change their strategy, and they will have no hurdle from Pentagon in this regard because the equation of balance is not in US favor."

Khalique sees a close link between the shaking US economy and the Iraq and Afghanistan wars.

"People have cast their votes in favor of Obama because they were so frustrated by Bush policies which led to retrenchment of 264,000 Americans from their jobs.

"Now, Obama can live up to their expectations only if wars in Iraq and Afghanistan come to an end, otherwise the US economy will continue to go down.

"If Obama changes US strategy in Afghanistan, which he has to, and hold talks with Taliban, who are totally different than Al-Qaeda, then it will yield positive results for Pakistan too."

Experts downplay Obama's threats during the presidential campaign of launching attacks into Pakistan to hunt down Al-Qaeda and Taliban leaders.

"It was only an election euphoria," said Iqbal.

"And to me, it was understandable because Obama was carrying many liabilities during his election campaign. He was the first African-American, who was contesting for presidential post, he has a Muslim background, and most importantly, his critics were blaming him for being inexperienced to handle the international conflicts, particularly war on terror. That's why he issued such fiery statements.

"Therefore we should not be worried about such statements because now he has entered the statecraft, where he has to chalk out strategies, and take steps in accordance with the ground realities."

Khalique, the Karachi-based analyst, agrees.

"If you go through the history, you will come to know that most of the conflicts initiated by Republicans, whether in Iraq, in Afghanistan or in Peru, and Democrats are the one who have tried to resolve the conflicts, whether Palestine or Kashmir," he said, referring to former Democrat President Bill Clinton who took interest in resolving Kashmir and Palestine disputes.

Same Policies

But some Pakistani experts don't expect major changes in US policies under Obama.

"High hopes are often beaten by harsh ground realities," said Hamid Mir, an Islamabad-based defense and security analyst.

"Therefore, Pakistanis should not expect much from Obama. He could do something good for American Muslims, because they are part of the local system, but for Pakistan, he has nothing to offer."

Mir cites the election of George W Bush in 2000 when Muslims, especially Pakistanis, strongly supported him against Bill Clinton.

"Pakistanis had warmly celebrated Bush's victory, but just within a few years, he became the most hated personality in Pakistan, and rest of the Muslim world.

"Therefore, don't take Obama's victory as your victory. He will and will have to serve the US interests, which revolve around more oil and more resources."

Mir opines that Pakistan's internal problems need more attention rather than looking at Obama's policies.

"Pakistan is getting internally weak due to political, and economic crises coupled with battles between security forces and local Taliban and Baloch militants," he said.

"If Pakistan remains weaker, it will have to bear the brunt of US policies, whether it's Obama or Bush. Therefore, we should pay more attention to resolve these internal issues to avoid US pressure."

The defense and security expert sees an interesting resemblance between situation in Pakistan and America.

"Pakistanis has rejected Musharraf, while Americans have rejected Bush," he said, referring to Musharraf's resignation in August under mounting public pressures and parliamentary threat to impeach him.

"But in Pakistan, the elected government is toeing Musharraf's policies with respect to war on terror, therefore I fear that Obama too will follow Bush's policies."

Sami Ibrahim, a Washington-based Pakistani journalist, agrees.

"World doesn't change just because of a white or black president. Obama will do the same what Pentagon and other US institutions ask him."

He believes that the Obama administration will maintain the same US anti-terror policies.

"There will be no major change in US national security policy because it is not chalked out by a president but by various institutions. And every president has to toe that  policy," he said.

"The US establishment will try to achieve its objectives during Obama's stint.

"Obama is already under pressure because of his middle name (Hussein). He will have to do everything to wash out the impression that he harbors sympathies for Muslims. He will have to appease the Christian extremists, who have been doubting his loyalties.

"Therefore, Pakistanis should not have high hopes regarding Obama's victory."