Zardari Changes Strategy, Taliban Strikes

"[Zardari] wants to fit in Musharraf’s shoes," Hyder believes.

"Obviously, he wants to fit in Musharraf’s shoes," Kamal Hyder, an Islamabad-based defense and security analyst, told IslamOnline.net.

Musharraf, who quit as president on August 18, had been a key US ally in its efforts to combat militancy on the Pakistani border with Afghanistan.

Contrary to the earlier reconciliatory stance of the coalition government, Zardari opened fire this week at local Taliban, saying they have "the upper hand" and should be outlawed.   

"It is an insurgency", the co-chairman of slain former premier Benazir Bhutto's ruling Pakistan People's Party (PPP), told the BBC. "It is our country and we will defend it."

The government rejected the same day an offer from the Bajaur chapter of Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan to unilaterally cease fire in the agency where fierce fighting with security forces had has been raging for over two weeks, claiming scores of lives.

The very next day, the government banned Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan of Baitullah Mehsud and froze all its bank accounts.

In the first such attack since the ban decision, a remote controlled bomb targeting policemen killed 10 people Thursday in the northwest garrison town Bannu near the Afghan border.

Security forces launched a major operation in Bajur two weeks ago, which has claimed scores of lives from both sides.

U-Turn

Zardari’s remarks and the government's actions mark a u-turn from the strategy adopted so far by the PPP-led federal cabinet.

Enumerating the reasons behind his contention, Hyder recalls Zardari’s recent interviews with international media in which he contends that Taliban have become more powerful, and that the world community is losing war against them.

"This is what the West wants to listen," said Hyder, the defense and security analyst, referring to Zardari’s BBC interview.

"When I heard this statement, I felt no difference between Musharraf and Zardari."

The coalition government, which came into power in the wake of the February 18 elections, had abandoned military operations in the restive tribal belt and opted for peace deals to tackle the issue of militancy.

As a result, a peace deal was inked between local Taliban militants and the government of North Western Frontier Province (NWFP) in April.

"That peace deal was a mere eye-wash," argues Hyder.

"Zardari had favored the peace talks just because of his allies like former premier Nawaz Sharif and former opposition leader Maulana Fazl-ur-Rehman," he contends.

Sharif and Fazl-ur-Rehman quit the four-party ruling coalition over differences with Zardari over the reinstatement of supreme and high court judges sacked by Musharraf last year.

A Foreign Office official says Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani, of the PPP, has assured US President George Bush that Pakistan's war on terror policies will not be changed even after Musharraf’s exit.

"Bush had raised doubts about the new government’s capability to fight militants," he told IOL.

"However the prime minister assured him that the policies vis-à-vis war on terror will not be changed even after Musharraf’s exit.

"He (Gilani) managed to convince the Bush administration that Zardari will not show any leniency towards militants in line with Musharraf," added the official, wishing not to be named.

Hyder says the US had finally came to the realization that Musharraf was so unpopular and constitutionally weak to pursue the war on terror.

"Musharraf was dragging his feet on some issues. A few month’s before his exit, the entire US media launched a campaign against Musharraf charging him with double-crossing the international community.

"The US needed a new man in his place."

Working Strategy?  

"When you have an insurgency, it cannot be defeated through force," believes Mir.

Some analysts doubt the success of the new strategy.

"When you have an insurgency, it cannot be defeated through force," believes Hamid Mir, an Islamabad-based security analyst.

"The previous regime tested this, and miserably failed. The incumbent regime can test this too, but it will have to come to negotiations."

Mir fears the continuation of Musharraf’s policies in tribal areas will result in more killing of innocent people.

"According to the local people, Taliban are no conceding massive losses because of the bombings. It is the local population which is being hurt badly."

He notes that hundreds of locals have already been killed and some 500,000 others displaced.

"In army bombings, innocent people are being killed, and in retaliatory suicide bombings too, innocent people are being killed.

"People of tribal areas thought that if Musharraf go they will not be bombed, but it seems to them that Musharraf is very much there."

However, other analysts disagree and contend that the PPP government is pursuing a good strategy.

"This is the right strategy," insists Ikram Sehgal, a Karachi-based defense and security analysts.

"In my opinion, the Taliban have offered truce only after they have been badly hit. They do this every time. Whenever they are hit, they offer truce. This time the government has done the right thing," he told IOL.

Sehgal says Taliban militants have continuously been violating the peace agreements, and after ordnance factory bombing, there is no room for negotiations.
"If you negotiate with them this time too, they will gain the time once again to regroup themselves," he contends.

"That  will be very dangerous."

Sehgal insists that the current strategy is the need of hour.

"Zardari has no other option. We are continuously being pressurized by the international community to act against them. And if we don't, then the time is not far when they will do that."