Will Musharraf Resign?

"He thinks it will be a matter of shame for him if he will have to appear before the parliament," a pro-Musharraf politician told IOL.

"Though it is not hundred percent sure that he would resign, his statements and body language suggested to me that he is not willing to face the parliament," a senior politician who has called on Musharraf twice in the last week, told IslamOnline.net, wishing not to be named.

"He thinks it will be a matter of shame for him if he will have to appear before the parliament."

Once the most powerful man of Pakistan and a blue-eyed boy of the US, Musharraf is facing the toughest time in his life with the four-party ruling coalition promising to complete his impeachment process by the first week of September.

"He (Musharraf) feels more touchy about those whom he dethroned in 1999," the politician said referring to former premier Nawaz Sharif whose elected government was toppled by Musharraf in a 1999 bloodless military coup.

"He thinks it’s better to resign instead of being humiliated by them."

According to the constitution, an impeachment motion stands successful if it wins a two-thirds of the combined strength of the national assembly and the senate.

The Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) of slain former premier Benazir Bhutto has 125 seats in a 342-member national assembly, Sharif's Pakistan Muslim League (N) 91, the left-wing Awami National Party (ANP) 13 and the Jamiat Ulema Islam (JUI) ten.

Some 18 independent candidates have also announced support to the impeachment motion, leaving the ruling alliance with 10 more votes than needed.

Musharraf received another setback when former interior minister Aftab Sherpao, a former PPP member who in 2002 formed his own faction and supported Musharraf, threw his support behind the impeachment.

Similarly, six members of the pro-Musharraf Pakistan Muslim League (PML-Q) have asked him to resign.

Saudi, US Factor

Musharraf is still holding to the thread of hope that his American and Saudi friends would come to his rescue.

"Musharraf has approached his Saudi and US friends, who were guarantors of the national reconciliation ordinance (with Bhutto) and the return of Sharif to Pakistan," said the senior politician who met the embattled president twice in a week.

"He says he has got positive signals from them but neither he elaborated nor we asked for that."

But the politician does not see any such hope.

"Issues between Musharraf and the ruling alliance, especially Asif Zardari, have reached a point of no-return. It’s do or die for both of them. If Zradari listens to the Saudis and Americans then he and his party would not survive," he notes.

"The president too recognizes the fact that the Saudis and Americans will not go out of the way against the newly-elected democratic government."

Ghazi Sallahuddin, a Karachi-based senior political analyst, agrees.

"One thing is for sure, the Saudis and Americans will not let the ruling coalition to humiliate their friend," he told IOL.

"That's why the ruling coalition is giving time to Musharraf to resign."

Ghazi too thinks that Saudi Arabia and the US may broker a face-saving deal but cannot force Zardari and Sharif to withdraw the impeachment move.

"There is no such chance. The game is almost over for Musharraf. He can only save face by resigning, and that’s all."

Ghazi insists that efforts are already underway to broker a face-saving deal, citing a recent visit by former British High Commissioner Marc Loyal Grant.

"Many people do not know the significance of Mr Grant’s visit. He is the man who actually acted as a broker to initiate talks between Bhutto and the US which ended with the national reconciliation ordinance," he explained.

The national reconciliation ordinance allowed the return of Bhutto and her husband from exile as part of a power-sharing deal with Musharraf.

"Grant is there to remind Zardari the promises made by Bhutto."