Political Divorce, Happy Musharraf

"Musharraf will again be calling shots in that case," Ghousi tells IOL.

"It is a great news for Musharraf that Nawaz Sharif has quit the government," Saleh Zafir, an Islamabad-based political analyst, told IslamOnline.net.

Nawaz's Pakistan Muslim League (PML-N) has decided to quit the coalition government led by the Pakistan people's Party (PPP) of slain former premier Benazir Bhutto.

The decision followed the failure of several rounds of talks on the reinstatement of supreme and high court judges sacked by Musharraf late last year.

"Sharif’s separation from the ruling alliance has paved the way for Musharraf to translate his dream, which was shattered by the results of February elections, into action," says Zafir.

"The president house, which fell a sleep after February 18, is awakening now."

Sharif, whose PML(N) has 90 seats in the 342-seat national assembly, had nine ministers in the 24-member federal cabinet.

Now the PPP, with 121 seats in the legislature, will have to shop for other allies to secure the required 172 seats for a simple majority.

Sabihuddin Ghousi, a Karachi-based political analyst, believes PPP leader Asif Zardari may retain his government by joining hands with pro-Musharraf parties.

"Musharraf will again be calling shots in that case," he expects.

"I don’t think that Zardari will be wise enough to understand that."

New Elections

"A government which goes against the wishes of its people cannot survive for a longer period," Yusufzai tells IOL

Rahimullah Yusufzai, a Peshawar-based political analyst, says the end of the PPP-PML(N) honeymoon is not unexpected.

"Independent judiciary doesn’t suit him Zardari at all. He is under pressure of the US and Musharraf."

Yusufzai doesn’t believe a PPP-Musharraf coalition has a better chance.

"A government which goes against the wishes of its people cannot survive for a longer period," he told IOL.

"I see the All Parties Democratic Alliance (a conglomerate of various political parties), lawyers, civil society and students on the roads."

Some analysts argue that this might lead to early elections.

"I see fresh elections after Ramadan (October)," says Ghousi.

"It seems the period of uncertainty has staged a comeback."

He noted that the people of Pakistan were happy that the two biggest political parties, at loggerheads for decades, had joined hand in a coalition government.

"But unfortunately, their dream has been shattered," Ghousi maintained.

The Karachi-based political analyst insists that Zardari must realize that without Sharif, any government will face a tough time.

"Sharif represents the central Punjab, the politically and financially most powerful region of the country. Without representation of this region, any government will be in trouble."

Zafir, the Islamabad-based analyst, says that Musharraf is keeping his eye on the Punjab government, the largest and riches province of Pakistan where PML(N) is the ruling party.

"Musharraf simply cannot bear his biggest opponent’s (Sharif) government in Punjab. He will do all his best to topple his government there."

Ghazi Sallahuddin, a Karachi-based senior political analyst, says the PPP would have to do something to appease Pakistanis.

"No doubt, the people are very disappointed. They were not expecting this kind of drop-scene," he told IOL.

"The PPP has to control the damage now. Zardari will have to regain the confidence of the people. He will have to prove now by taking some practical steps that he is sincere in restoration of the judiciary."

The expert still sees the possibility of patching up relations between the PPP and the PML-N.

"The game is not over yet. The battle of nerves is continuing. The next five-six days are very crucial.

"In my opinion, the clear picture will emerge after a week. If the PPP takes some concrete steps to persuade the PML(N), then the coalition will remain intact. The ball is in the PPP’s court."