Pakistan's New Tactful Kingmakers

"He can sit in the president house for the next five years only if he is ready to be humiliated everyday."

"The two leaders have agreed to hit their target step by step," a senior leader of Sharif's Pakistan Muslim League (N) told IslamOnline.net on Monday, March 10.

"They have decided not to open too many fronts before entering the parliament."  

The PML (N) and the Pakistan People's Party (PPP) of slain former premier Benazir Bhutto announced Sunday, March 9, an agreement to form a coalition federal government.

The PPP has won 87 of the announced 262 seats in the national assembly followed by PML-N with 67 seats.

After adding the seats reserved for women and minorities, the shares of the PPP and the PML (N) stand at 125 and 90 respectively in the 342-member lower house.

Sharif was earlier reluctant to join the federal government because his ministers would have to take the oath under Musharraf whom he does not recognize a legitimate president.

Zardari has convinced Sharif to change his stand.

"I have not changed my stance on Musharraf's legitimacy. But for a sacred objective, I have to take this bitter sip."

Sharif's elected government was toppled by then army chief Musharraf in a 1999 military coup.

Concealed Agenda  

The PPP and PML (N) agreed Sunday to reinstate sacked judges through a parliamentary resolution within 30 days of the government formation.

Musharraf sacked chief justice Iftikhar Chaudhry and most of the judiciary on November 3, just before the Supreme Court was about to rule on the legality of his re-election as president-in-uniform.

Bringing back independent-minded judges would likely lead to fresh legal challenges to Musharraf's second five-year term in power.

"Zardari had to do lifetime efforts to persuade Sharif to wait and hit," a PPP leader who was part of the coalition government talks told IOL.

He said the two leaders have taken key decision that would remain under wraps for now.

"They have taken some explosive decisions, which they don't want to disclose at the moment in order to avert any preemptive step by Musharraf.

"They have agreed that if Musharraf doesn't quit voluntarily, he will be impeached."

Sharif has been calling for pressing charges against Musharraf under article 6, which deals with high treason.

"However, Zardari managed to convince him that the ego of the enemy should not be trampled upon," said the PPP leader.

He added that Zardai wants to give Musharraf "a safe passage."

President Musharraf, a key US ally in its so-called war on terror, has repeatedly rebuffed demands to step down and rejected the possibility of accepting a so-called safe exit.

Poles Apart 

"[Zardari and Sharif] will never forget the treatment they were meted out at the hands of Musharraf," Javed told IOL.

Analysts believe any working relation between the coalition government and Musharraf is almost impossible.

"The two (Zardari and Sharif) have been bluntly humiliated by the Musharraf regime during last eight years in one way or other," Nusrat Javed, an Islamabad-based analyst, told IOL.

"They will never forget the treatment they were meted out at the hands of Musharraf."

Javed cites the change of the PPP candidate for the premiership in favor of his contention.

"Makhdoom Amin Fahim is a very humble, polite, and clash-avoiding person, which doesn't fit in the future scenario, which will be the scenario of clash (between government and president)."

Fahim, the PPP's senior vice chairman and a close confidant of slain Bhutto, was initially tipped as the frontrunner for the prestigious post but his chances have dimmed in recent weeks.

He was not even invited to Sunday's meeting and the televised announcement of the coalition deal.

"Zardari and Sharif have given these 30 days to Musharraf to asses himself and leave voluntarily," argues Javed.

"He is a commando, and he may take a commando action to steer himself out of this crisis. But unfortunately he has lost the battle."

Javed believes Musharraf will be on back-foot in possible clash with the new government.

"Though, he still have the trump card of 58-2B, however, he will not be in a position to use that."

The controversial clause gives some ultimate powers to the president, including the right to dissolve the government and the assemblies.

"It is not 1999, when he was a virgin general. It's 2008. Too much water has flown under the bridges. He is no more the army chief," maintains Javed.

"Even if the army chief supports him (Musharraf), he too cannot afford to impose another martial law in the country."

Mushtaq Minhas, another Islamabad-based political analyst, too gives a clear edge to Musharraf foes.

"Pakistan is a parliamentary democracy. Musharraf has only 58-2B, while almost all the decision-making powers, including budgetary allocations, are enjoyed by the parliament," he told IOL.

"If Musharraf and the Supreme Court do not recognize the parliament's decision to restore the judiciary, the parliament can simply refuse to allocate any budget for the president house and the supreme and higher courts, including salaries of the judges."

Minhas claims these reactions have already been discussed by Zardari and Sharif.

According to the constitution, all budgetary powers lie with the national assembly.

"Another edge that the new prime minister will have is that being the chief executive, he will control the entire state machinery including police. He can simply order the state machinery not to implement on any judgment of the supreme court."

Minhas sees only one way for Musharraf to remain president.

"He can sit in the president house for the next five years only if he is ready to be humiliated everyday."