Feature

Uncertainty Grips Pakistan

Impact of Emergency Rule Beyond Political Aspects

The State bank of Pakistan lowered the reserve requirement of foreign currency deposits, and sold dollars in the open market to arrest the increasing value of dollar. (Reuters' Photo)

“The suspension of the constitution, and imposition of emergency rule have not merely discouraged every segment of the Pakistani society but also the West, resulting in a downward trend in the country’s economic, and social sectors”, Dr Shahid Hassan Siddiqui, a veteran economist told Islamonline.net.

Pakistan’s embattling President Pervez Musharraf, who has recently stepped down as the army chief bowing to a virtual internal and external pressure, imposed the state of emergency in the country suspending various civil rights, sacking the Supreme and High Court judges, and arresting thousands of political activists and lawyers.

“During last two days, portfolio investment to the tune of Rs 25 million dollars have been withdrawn by the foreign investors from the country’s stock markets”, Mr. Siddiqui said.

He observes that the foreign investors give too much importance to the observations of international credit agencies about the economic prospects in any country, that is why they are reluctant to invest in Pakistan after downgrading of its credit rating.

“For the last few months, the US dollar has been depreciating against international currencies, but in Pakistan the trend is adverse as Pakistan's Rupee has been depreciating against the US dollar, which shows the deteriorating economic outlook of the country”, Siddiqui maintained.

Siddiqui thinks that the government is trying to arrest the increasing value of the US dollar through some cosmetic steps, which will not help much.

“The State bank of Pakistan on December 3, 2007 lowered the reserve requirement of foreign currency deposits, and sold dollars in the open market to arrest the increasing value of dollar, but that won’t help much because the ongoing depreciation is likely to continue due to prevailing uncertainty,” he added.

Siddiqui thinks that the suspension of Pakistan’s membership by the Common Wealth adds to the reluctance of domestic and foreign investment in the country.

He opines that there will be no let up in the ongoing uncertainty due to a possible boycott of upcoming general elections by major opposition parties.

“There is nothing in the country except uncertainty at the moment. I don’t think that it will go away in the near future until unless a drastic change in the incumbent set up (government) occurs”, he opined.

Observers and common citizens think that the life of a common man has been affected by the imposition of emergency that led to the prevailing uncertainty.

“There is a sharp decline in buying and selling of real estate all over the country after imposition of a state of emergency”, Mohammed Abid, a real estate agent, who deals in Karachi’s posh localities of Defense and Clifton, told IOL.

He says that the prices of real estate in Karachi, which is considered the commercial hub of this South Asian Muslim state of 160 million people, have declined to 25 percent after imposition of emergency.

“People are hardly buying or selling their properties. They are not ready to take any risk because of the prevailing uncertainty. Owners are not selling because prices have gone lower, whereas the buyers are not in a mood to invest. There has been a situation like wait and see during the last one month”, Abid maintained.

He says he has earned a very meager amount during that last month as compared to his normal income.

“I have been doing a roaring business before March 9, 2007 ¬– the day Musharraf suspended the Supreme Court Chief Justice, Iftikhar Chaudry – however, the situation was not as worst as it has become after imposition of emergency. Instead of buying or selling, my clients ask what will happen tomorrow?”, he added.

Ghulam Hussein, a middle-aged daily-wages laborer sitting on a footpath of  the downtown of Karachi, called Saddar, and looking for some work agrees with Abid.

“This is the fourth consecutive day, I haven’t found any work. Construction work has been almost at halt. Every day I come here with a hope, but go back to home with nothing in pocket”, he said.

Ghulam Hussein used to earn Rs 200 (3 and a half dollars) everyday till last month, but nowadays, he earns the same amount after every tow-three days.

“You will be surprised to know that people are not ready to go ahead with their under construction projects. I don’t say that there has been no construction at all in the city, but due to suspension of work on many projects, thousands of laborers are facing a hard time”, he added.

Sources in the All Pakistan Builders Association say that builders are reluctant to commence new projects in the city due to uncertain conditions.

“Who will we sell the apartments and shops even if we begin the projects. There is no guarantee that how long this uncertainty will prevail? That’s why we are not ready to take any risk”, Sohail Ahmed, a builder said.

Dr. Shahid Siddiqui thinks that there is nothing worst than uncertainty for the economy of a country that ultimately lead to various social and psychological problems in the society.

“Investors are basically not very brave people. Their motive is to earn profits in any conditions. Therefore, if there is no guarantee of certain factors, they will never invest, which will ultimately affect the common men”, he said.

While imposing emergency, one of the major reasons President Musharraf cited for his “extra-constitutional” step was deteriorating law and order situation in the country.

Contrary to situation in northern restive district of Swat, where security forces have gained major ground against militants belonging Maulana Fazlullah of the outlawed Tehrik Nifaz-e-Sharia’h Mohammedi, street crimes have registered a sharp increase after imposition of emergency.

Figures compiled by police authorities and the Citizens-Police Liaison Committee (CPLC) suggest a sharp rise in street crimes along with shootouts, bank robberies and killings of security men during the days between Nov 3 and Dec 2, 2007.

“Till Dec 3, some 4,740 mobile phones have been stolen or snatched at gunpoint since Nov 3,” said an official citing the figures compiled on the basis of reports gathered from police stations.

“These figures are obviously higher compared to that of a month earlier or the days between Oct 3 and Nov 2. During the month before the emergency rule, a total of 4,588 people were deprived of their mobile phones through theft or snatching that is believed to be the most prevailing activity in street crimes.” the official said.

Similarly, he said, the data also showed a jump in the cases of theft and snatching of cars in the city during the days of emergency. A total of 465 cars were taken away by robbers, compared to 437 vehicles hijacked in the 30 days before the Provisional Constitution Order was issued by President Pervez Musharraf as the chief of army staff.

“A total of 1,045 motorcycles had been stolen or snatched from Oct 3 to Nov 2, and the number rose to 1,135 during the next 30 days,” added the official.

“Though the figures of house robberies are not available, there is reason to believe that they had been higher than before.”

The month under the emergency rule, which witnessed the arrest of thousands of lawyers, journalists and political activists, and police suppressed every attempt to protest against the suspension of the constitution, which forced some 17 judges of the Sindh High Court to go home after they refused to take an oath under the emergency order, registered five bank robberies, in which the robbers hauled away more than Rs22 million.

In the month before the emergency rule, there were only two bank heists, which did cause financial damages but did not challenge the writ of law. On Nov 30, the bank robbery in a local bank not only cost more than Rs5 million to the bank but also claimed three lives, including that of a policeman.

The authorities say that the month under the emergency rule was not much different in terms of crime than the months when the constitutional rights of citizens were intact.

 Public reaction to emergency and suspension of the constitution is overwhelmingly negative, says Dr Ijaz Shafi Gilani, an specialist in public opinion research, and head of Gallup Survey of Pakistan.

”In a survey carried out shortly after the announcement of emergency, only 19 percent of the respondents across the four provinces supported it, whereas 67 percent opposed it and 14 percent  were unable to make up their mind. Barring a few exceptions, this overwhelmingly negative response cuts across political affiliations and social differences”, Mr Gilani said.

“Similar polls on earlier occasions, notably in October 1999, showed widespread approval of the take-over”, Mr Gilani pointed out referring to a bloodless military coup on October 12, 1999 that ousted the elected Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif from power by the then army chief General Pervez Musharraf.

In his first suspension of the constitution eight years ago, Mr Gilani maintained,  Musharraf received around 70 percent  approval in a Gallup Pakistan Poll.

“In fact, the recent most appears to be the only one of the five martial laws (defined as suspension or abrogation of the constitution by the army chief) which has received popular disapproval. For right or wrong reasons the martial laws of the Fifties (of General Ayub Khan), Sixties (of General Yahya Khan), Seventies (of General Ziaul Haq) and Nineties (of General Musharraf ) are known to have been received with approval and considerable support”, he added.

According to one opinion that the emergency is in the interest of Pakistan, while according to another opinion, it is for Musharraf’s own interest. What is your view?” A vast majority of 68 percent  favors the second opinion. Only 18 percent support the former view, while the remaining are undecided.

“Musharraf may sincerely believe that he is burning the midnight lamp and killing himself to promote a ‘Pakistan first’ policy. But while it would hurt his feelings, one has to whisper to him honestly:  A Majority of Pakistanis  look upon your recent actions as a ‘Musharraf first’ syndrome. Only 18 percent believe in your ‘Pakistan first’ rationale to suspend the constitution.

There is also a more profound basis to widespread rejection of the state of emergency. This is particularly true of the intelligentsia, professionals and the politically active sections of the population.

A survey carried out last week by Gallup Pakistan asked the question on the appropriateness of (practically) dismissing Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudry, only 14 percent were in favor, while a massive 70 percent opposed it, and the remaining did not respond.

The question was followed by a mock presidential poll between General Pervez Musharraf and CJ Iftikhar Chaudry. Among those who voted 70 percent voted for the CJ and only 30 percent for Musharraf.

“If Musharraf were to seek my counsel I would say: In all respect the most honorable course for you is to quit. I say it with earnestness. If I was you, that is what I would do. Our Prophet (Peace be upon him) advised: ‘Wish unto your brother what you wish well for yourself’. Of the five martial laws in our history you have the undesirable distinction of being the only person who has done it twice. Be the first one to quit honorably”, Mr Gilani maintained.

Aamir Latif is a Pakistani writer and journalist. He is also IslamOnline.net correspondent in Pakistan. Click here to reach him.