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The leader of the main religious alliance Muttehida Majlis-e-Amal(MMA) Qazi Hussain Ahmed. (IOL Photo) |
A divided Pakistani opposition is unlikely to stop the country’s military ruler General Pervez Musharraf from getting re-elected in his military uniform in what political analysts dub as the most controversial presidential elections in the checkered political history of this South Asian Muslim state.
"Only a miracle can stop General Musharraf from getting re-elected now. The situation has totally changed in favor of General Musharraf after Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP), and Jamiat Ulema Islam (JUI) — a major component of six-party religious alliance, Muttehida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA) — have refused to resign from the assemblies", Abdul Khalique Ali, a veteran political analyst explained.
The presidential election is scheduled to be held on October 6, 2007 to elect the country’s new president for the next five-year term. The lawyers have nominated a former Supreme Court judge, Justice Rtd. Wajihuddin Ahmed as their presidential candidate.
"We are sure that that the election commission will reject the nomination papers of General Pervez Musharraf. Therefore, we are nominating our candidate, who may be elected unopposed in case of rejection of General Musharraf’s papers", retired Justice Tariq Mahmood, former President of Supreme Court Bar Association said.
Mr. Ali thinks that the only hurdle in General Musharraf’s way is the Supreme Court’s judgment on a barrage of petitions filed by opposition leaders and lawyers challenging his re-election in military uniform.
"I don’t see any other hurdle in his way except the apex court’s judgment. But there are bright chances that the Supreme Court’s judgment will also be in favor of General Musharraf. Taking the remarks being given by the Supreme Court judges suggest to me that this time too the apex court will not take any anti-dictatorship decision", he maintained.
| "We are against Musharraf’s re-election in uniform; however, our parliamentarians are not bound to resign from assemblies" |
Opposition Gulf
Mr. Ali observes that the gulf between mainstream opposition parties has been widened enabling General Musharraf to have a smooth sailing vis-ŕ-vis upcoming presidential election.
"The opposition is miserably divided. The PPP and the JUI have virtually joined Musharraf’s camp. In current circumstances, if all other opposition parliamentarians resign, there will be no use of it because the presidential election can only be controversial if at least one provincial assembly is dissolved", he added.
The inclusive opposition alliance, All Pakistan Democratic Movement (APDM), plans to dissolve the North Western Frontier Province (NWFP) assembly ruled by the MMA, however, the chief minister, Akram Khan Durrani belongs to Maulana Fazl-led JUI, which is reluctant to resign.
According to the constitution, only chief minister can give advice to the governor to dissolve the assembly.
Analysts opine that differences between the opposition parties over presidential election has jeopardized the future of the six-party religious alliance, the MMA, as the two major components of the alliance, the Jammat-e-Islami, and the JUI have adopted totally different stances on the issue.
The PPP, which has been in negotiation with the military regime to reach a power-sharing formula, has already announced that its parliamentarians will not resign in protest against Musharraf’s re-election in uniform.
"We are not bound to the decision taken by the APDM. We are against Musharraf’s re-election in uniform; however, our parliamentarians are not bound to resign from assemblies in line with the APDM’s decision", Makhdoom Amin Fahim, the acting chairman of the PPP said.
He says his party will finalize its strategy against Musharraf’s re-election in its meeting on October 3, 2007 in London.
However, sources privy to the president house claim that the PPP chairperson Benazir Bhutto has assured General Musharraf of her tacit support in his re-election.
"General Musharraf does not need the votes of PPP parliamentarians. He already has enough votes to get re-elected. He just wants the PPP parliamentarians not to resign ", a close aide to General Musharraf said on condition of anonymity.
All in Fazl's Hand
| "Now, only the Supreme Court or Maulana Fazl-ur-Rehman can stop General Musharraf’s re-election"— former Chief Justice of Supreme Court. |
The Jammat-e-Islami, which is considered one the most annexed religious parties in Pakistan, vehemently supports the resignation strategy to block General Musharaff’s re-election, but hindered by JUI reluctance.
However, the JUI Chief, Maulana Fazl-ur-Rehman says that he and his party have no objection to resign from the national and provincial assemblies, but contends that some issues need to be resolved before that.
"The situation has changed now. I don’t say I am not bound to the opposition’s decision to resign, but in my opinion we should wait for the Supreme Court’s judgment", he told reporters.
He thinks any hasty decision may derail the already fragile democracy in the country.
"Give us sometime, by God's will everything will be settled down", a smart Fazl said in reply to a barrage of questions regarding dissolution of the NWFP assembly.
"The NWFP assembly might be dissolved, but in my opinion, we should take only those decisions which must be effective", he added.
"The JUI from the very first day of the inception of current setup, has been supporting the military dictatorship by overt or covert. The only problem with Jammat-e-Islami is that it wants the religious alliance to intact, otherwise, the JUI policies are tarnishing the image of the religious parties in the country", Mr Ali thought.
Justice rtd Saeed-uz-Zaman Siddiqui, a former Chief Justice of Supreme Court shares the same opinion.
"Now, only the Supreme Court or Maulana Fazl-ur-Rehman can stop General Musharraf’s re-election", he said.
Dubbing the current political scenario as "vague", Justice Zaman said " In my opinion, the Supreme Court’s judgment on Musharraf’s re-election will nether be in accordance with the wishes of the people nor would the people accept that wholeheartedly".
He thinks that the resignations of opposition parliamentarians will not affect the presidential election.
"The presidential election can only be affected or halted if the electoral college for the election remains incomplete. And it can only happen if the NWFP assembly is dissolved", he said.
According to the electoral rules, the national assembly, the senate, and the four provincial assemblies are considered the electoral college to elect the president.
A total of 702 members of the parliament are eligible to cast their votes in presidential election, of which the successful candidate has to obtain 354 votes for simple majority.
Lt General rtd Hameed Gul, a former chief of the country’s powerful Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) agrees with Justice Zaman.
"The key is in the hands of Maulana Fazl-ur-Rehman. He must keep this in his mind that if there is deal between [former prime minister] Benazir Bhutto and General Musharraf, or between him [Fazl] and General Musharraf, the actual deal for me is between America and them", General Gul contended.
Revolution in Horizon?
| "The situation in Pakistan is similar to the situation that preceded the revolution in Iran in 1979." |
Gul sees the situation in Pakistan similar to the situation that preceded the revolution in Iran in 1979.
"Why America is supporting an unpopular president in Pakistan, and forcing others to join hands with him. They [the Americans] have already seen the result of their support to unpopular regime in Iran", he opined.
General Gul thinks that America wants Musharraf to remain in power because he has the command of the country’s nuclear program, and the US trusts him.
"America doesn’t want parliamentary democracy in Pakistan because in that type of democracy, the prime minister is the chief executive. Americans do not want the entire parliament to have the command and control authority of the nuclear program. It is more easier for them [the US] to deal with a single person instead of the parliament", he explained.
"I think Maulana Fazl is a very shrewd politician, and he will not take any decision against the wishes of the people, especially in the NWFP, where anti-Musharraf sentiments are running high", he said.
"If he (Fazl) takes any decision against the wishes of the people, his party will have to suffer in the NWFP in the next general elections", he added.
To a query regarding general attitude of the supreme court bench, which is hearing the petitions against General Musharraf’s re-election in uniform, Gul said "whatever is going on, in my opinion, is nothing more than mockery. The 160 million people of Pakistan are being hoodwinked in a childish manner".
Roeedad Khan, a prominent writer thinks that Musharraf has lost the moral ground.
"He is morally very weak no matter he wins the election or not. I see a civil war-like situation in the country, if the army does not go back to the barracks", he opined.
Roeedad too doesn’t see any "favorable" judgment from the Supreme Court.
"I regularly go to the court, attend the hearing, and observe the body language of the judges, and the government counsels. The government counsels are so relaxed and confident. Secondly, the remarks being given by the apex court judges during the hearings are discouraging. This all suggests to me that the judgment will not be in favor of the people of Pakistan this time too", he maintained.
Ultimate Aim
| "Our ultimate aim is victory against Musharraf" –Justice Wajih-udin, Musharraf's challenger in the elections. |
Justice Wajihuddin Ahmed who will contest General Musharraf in the upcoming presidential elections says he has no illusions about winning the election.
"As far as the current game of number is concerned, Musharraf should win the presidential election, but morally he has already lost. Our ultimate aim is victory against Musharraf," Justice Wajih-udin said.
"I had no plans to contest. The lawyers contacted me and said that it was a national cause and a national duty," he said. "I said that there was little hope of success but they said that it is a matter of principles."
"And I said I am ready to sacrifice personal interests for national cause, because as per constitution, General Musharraf's nomination papers must be rejected by the election commission, and if not then by the Supreme Court. His qualification can only be challenged in the Supreme Court by the rival candidate." he maintained.
"I don’t think my position will be any worse. Look, it is not about winning or loosing. Lawyers don't want Musharraf to win the presidential election uncontested", he maintained.
General Musharraf, who grabbed power in 1999, has said he will step down from the army soon after the election if he wins, a move that has sparked protests by the opposition.
None of Pakistan's major political parties has yet fielded a presidential candidate, but the lawyers have been increasingly vocal since standing up to Musharraf's attempt to oust the chief justice.
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