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Pakistan would be given a set of targets under the US-led war on terror in Afghanistan. |
I often wonder why every opposition leader in the Muslim world dreams, upon returning from exile, of a popular reception like the one Imam Khomeini had in the late 1970s, especially when they do not have any role to play on the ground.
Recently, Nawaz Sharif and his loyalists have had the same romantic ideas of popular reception, without realizing that a new theme of a bigger game in the "South Asian-US War on Terror" theater is in the making.
The new theme of the game and its players have been selected and Nawaz Sharif does not have a role to play in this bigger game.
| The US aims to initiate a peace dialogue, and combat operations as part of a broader counter insurgency strategy in Afghanistan. |
New Strategy
In the great game of the US-led war on terror in Southwest Asia, the US and its allies have started working on a fresh strategic mechanism in Afghanistan, a mechanism that aims to defeat the Al-Qaeda and its adherents, and negotiate a peace formula with the moderates of "Reconcilable Taliban."
This two pronged strategies, identical to General Patreous’ Iraqi plan to win the heart of the Iraqi national resistance comprising on tribes and to alienate Al-Qaeda within resistance rank and file, have a potential to isolate the radical extremists in Afghanistan and ultimately set up a permanent defeat.
The Americans aim to initiate a peace dialogue and at the same time to combat operations as part of a broader counter-insurgency strategy in which Afghan resistance would remain under constant pressure. This strategy is aimed at preventing the Afghan resistance from getting benefited, as a result, of any ceasefire, and ultimately reach an agreement on a political settlement.
| This capitalist mindset handling needs specified actors to perform the show. |
Who Would Perform?
The question remains: Who would perform this task?
The Afghan government has been a proven failure in the last 6 years, while Pakistan’s influence has always been a proven success. But if Pakistan , the naughty boy of the region, is enrolled for such a task, who would guarantee Pakistan ’s role within the American policy framework?
An overriding concern of Washington is that if the Pakistani military is given a free hand in Afghanistan, it will once again make that occasion an alibi for its regional strategic maneuvers, just like it did in the past when Pakistan's Army promoted anti-American Pashtun war lord Gulbadin Hekmatyar and later supported the Taliban in a CIA-sponsored Afghan resistance against the soviets.
This past experience and the requirements of the current status promoted an idea of a "piecemeal dealing" under which Pakistan would be given a set of identified targets in a given period under the US-led war on terror in Afghanistan.
US officials like Richard Boucher and John Nigroponte would keep track on Pakistan’s performance and Pakistan’s aid package delivery would be determined on the basis of performance report.
This capitalist mindset needs specified actors to perform the show. The biggest irritant in this game is General Pervez Musharraf’s difficulty to continue with the present half military and half civilian setup, especially after the reinstatement of Chief Justice of Pakistan which rejuvenated judicial activism in the country.
Political Transition Deal
The changing gestures of the civil society and the judiciary prompted the main handlers of war on terror, the US and UK, to emerge as a major guarantor of a setup which would ensure a smooth political transition in Pakistan .
This guarantor ensured the following package in a political deal, according to my well placed sources in Pakistan's military headquarters and Washington who spoke on condition of anonymity:
- A consensus alliance would be formed between the present allies of General Pervez Musharraf and Pakistan Peoples Party led by Benazir Bhutto
- The alliance would get General Pervez Musharraf elected as President in uniform from the parliament.
- General Pervez Musharraf would announce to take the oath as president without uniform meaning as soon as he would be elected a president he would resign as Chief of Army Staff.
- The name of a new Chief of Army Staff would be announced before presidential elections.
This whole package aims at a smooth political transition in Pakistan and a safe and honorable package to General Pervez Musharraf to shed his uniform.
| Pakistan would be the US-led war on terror contractor in Afghanistan for its American client who would pay the aid checks. |
War on Terror Contractor
Once this deal is actualized, under the umbrella of the present political setup, Pakistan's army would be the contractor of the US-led war on terror in Afghanistan for its American client who would pay the aid checks on a piecemeal basis through various defense and commercial aid packages to Pakistan.
The Chief of Army Staff, Director General of Inter-Services-Intelligence, the directorate of military intelligence, and the directorate of military operations would directly coordinate with the American intelligence establishment to coordinate the fresh mechanism of a peace deal with Taliban and a permanent defeat to Al-Qaeda and its adherents.
This extremely commercial oriented war on terror project is so pragmatic that Washington is convinced that its battle against Islamic militants would not be harmed, even after changing Musharraf as its point man and instead working with an institution of Pakistan 's Army.
| The Pakistani theatre in fact has already been selected for an extra-ordinary game and players. |
Nawaz and the "Big" Game
Former premier Nawaz Sharif kept himself aloof from this whole strategic dialogue and tried to approach Washington in a different way. He tried to seek Washington’s support because of his claim of being most popular Pakistani leader and a twice elected prime minister of Pakistan .
Washington does not subscribe such out-of-context moves. At the same time, Nawaz never tried to read the pulse of the street which is very well taken over by the radical Islamists, the students of the madressas (Islamic seminaries), Jihadi organizations, and the tribal warlords. He never tried to be the voice of oppressed tribesman who have been the victim of the Pakistani armed forces operations and US assaults since 2003.
He kept his mouth shut on the issues like Lal Masjid operation, out of fear that he would be branded as sympathizer of Islamists. He tried to continue with his traditional right in the middle politics when the political pendulum was moving in extreme and non-traditional political directions.
The Pakistani theatre in fact has already been selected for an extra-ordinary game and players. One side belongs to the allies of Washington, the other to Pakistan 's Islamists.
Nawaz was nowhere and thus would stay in calm in Jeddah unless he draws attention, either of the Washington or the popular street sentiments, to be a competent player of the game being played in the southwest Asian theater.
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