Saddam's Verdict Will Not Meet Expectations

Shiites celebrate the verdict against former Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein in Baghdad's Sadr City. Many analysts expect the verdict to further split Iraqis apart (Reuters photo).

The first set of expectations, built on false assumption, was that issuing the verdict — ostensibly the death sentence —  to Saddam on the eve of the midterm elections in the United States would resonate with the American voter.

Or at least what is left of the power base US President George W. Bush and the hawks used to ride to power in 2000 and again 2004.

The US president has not only seen his popularity erode, but has watched as the former war proponents among his Republican Party flee with high tail lest their association with the "war president" signal their end in Congress.

Perhaps this headline from the Agence France-Presse newswire service reveals the true predicament of the Bush administration in Iraq: "US President George W. Bush is fighting to preserve a Republican majority in Congress, as Americans prepare to vote in congressional elections Tuesday seen by many as a referendum on the Iraq war."

But the only milestone Iraqis refer to is the nearly 600,000 of them who have died in the past three years, nearly double the number Saddam is said to have killed in 35 years of his reign.

Therein is revealed the first expectation —  the postponement of the verdict from October 16 to November 5 was clearly engineered for domestic US consumption.

The second set of expectations comes from the administration as well: The execution of Saddam will reduce the violence, put a dark chapter in Iraqi history to a close, and usher in a wave of democracy; the dead-enders, which US Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld referred to three years ago — the Baathists diehards — will give up their fight, give up their arms and stop fighting the occupation.

But such a reading is rooted not only in supreme ignorance of human history but in a manipulation and rejection of events on the ground.

The conflict in Iraq — sectarian and anti-occupation — will not die down now, but will likely be exacerbated as the country splits down the middle over the verdict.

In predominantly Sunni Arab areas across Iraq there are dozens of pro-Saddam protests. Some have turned violent. Iraqi media which showed these protests were forcibly shut down; the Salahidin network was taken off the air mere hours after it showed live reports of people carrying Saddam's picture and cheering him in the heart of Baghdad. Another network,the Sunni-owned Zawra, was also closed down. Currently, only Shiite-owned stations are now operating out of Iraq.

Pro-Saddam demonstrators were reportedly attacked by the new Iraqi Army in Baghdad and other cities in Iraq.

In other parts of Iraq, there are anti-Saddam protests with Shiites shouting in glee that their "oppressor" has been dealt the hand of justice.

But instead, the verdict will now further split Iraqis apart. Those calling for his execution will be seen as cohorts of the Americans, the British, the Iranians, and the Israelis.

The timing, while perhaps designed to serve a domestic agenda in the United States, could not be worse for Iraq. It comes on the heels of the ever-growing civil war, the humiliation many Iraqis feel over the issue of the Iraqi flag being lowered from official buildings, the fracas over federalism, and the growing understanding that the government of Iraqi Prime Minister Nur Al-Maliki has done little other than hand over the reins of security to the death squads.

There had been talk in previous weeks of attempts at bringing Sunni groups to the negotiating table. Last year, we also saw former Foreign Minister Jack Straw and US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice rush to Iraq to urge a government of reconciliation. A unity government, they called it at the time.

Such hopes have now been entirely shelved as the Bush administration realizes it has blundered in Iraq but is too proud to acknowledge that the US plan in the oil-rich, war-ravaged nation has brought on yet another Vietnam quagmire.

Nationalism in Iraq will now be at an all-time high. And the attacks will increase.

October saw the death of some 105 US military personnel. In the first four days of November, another 11 were killed. On the day the verdict was announced, two more US soldiers were killed. And counting.

The third set of expectations comes from the Iraqi government itself. Battered, unable to maneuver, impotent in the face of growing violence, the government led by former exiles in Iran is hoping the execution of Saddam will discourage any of his aides to fight on.

Either this is what the Iraqi government is trying to tell itself, or it is keenly aware that those fighting in Iraq have little to nothing to do with Saddam.

A series of investigative pieces which have appeared in various American and European publications have shown that anti-US resistance movements — as variegated as they are — are fighting to rid the country of an illegal occupying force.

There are numerous Sunni and Shiite resistance groups who have pledged to work, albeit separately, towards these goals.

But if you ask average Iraqis, Saddam’s trial is meaningless. Saddam may have received a sentence to hang but Iraq the nation has been dangling from the executioner’s noose for years now.

Firas Al-Atraqchi is a Canadian journalist of Iraqi heritage. Holding a master's degree in journalism and mass communication, he has 14 years of experience covering Middle East issues and he previously worked as a senior editor at Aljazeera International. You can reach him at firas.atrqchi@gmail.com.