Avian Flu and You: Assessing the Real Risk

There is understandable and continuous concern among global health authorities about the rapid and deadly spread of “avian influenza” (AI) throughout the world’s bird populations. AI is nothing new. This particular strain, H5N1, has been around for years, and since 1997 there have been a small but steady number of laboratory confirmed human infections with AI.

Nearly all of these cases occurred in people who had direct contact with birds and to date that has been the only way that every human has been infected with AI; from close and familiar contact with birds. What is sometimes lost is that while there have been an increasing number of infected people, they still represent only a tiny fraction of those that can actually be classified as “at risk.”

Avian Influenza (AI), sometimes called “Bird Flu” or “Avian Flu,” is a highly contagious viral infection that can infect birds of all species. Scientists first identified the disease over a century ago and it occurs worldwide. Migrating wild birds are known to carry AI in their intestines, usually without becoming ill due to natural resistance.

Over the last few years, AI has been spreading around the world as part of an apparent epizootic (an epizootic is a global outbreak of a disease in animals; a pandemic is a global outbreak of a disease in humans). It appears that migrating birds are spreading the disease to domestic poultry populations. Virtually every human case has resulted from contact with domestic chickens, ducks, or geese.

Nearly all of these cases occurred in people who had direct contact with birds and to date that has been the only way that every human has been infected with AI; from close and familiar contact with birds. What is sometimes lost is that while there have been an increasing number of infected people, they still represent only a tiny fraction of those that can actually be classified as “at risk.”

The purpose of this article is to place the whole avian flu situation into context and offer some perspective. We’ll focus our attention on basic information about AI in bird populations. We’ll also be looking at how humans are affected by avian flu and review the potential for a pandemic of human to human avian flu.

Avian Influenza: An Epizootic

Someone is: Over the last few years, AI has been spreading around the world as part of an apparent epizootic (an epizootic is a global outbreak of a disease in animals; a pandemic is a global outbreak of a disease in humans). It appears that migrating birds are spreading the disease to domestic poultry populations. Virtually every human case has resulted from contact with domestic chickens, ducks, or geese.

[1] There will be no effective vaccine in the early days, weeks, and months and the odds are that the supply of effective anti-virals will be limited, and even when available restricted to those most at risk.

[2] During the 20th century, influenza pandemics caused millions of deaths, hundreds of millions of illnesses, social disruption, and profound economic losses worldwide. When the next influenza pandemic does strike we can be almost certainthat far more people will be ill and unable to work for a few days

[3] than will likely die. In one conservative scenario it has been calculated that the world will face up to 100 million outpatient visits, and more than 25 million hospital admissions. The impact of these absences will snarl the wheels of commerce cut downthe number of healthcare providers, and take their toll in a dozen little ways, from sick teachers and empty classrooms, to vacant shops and businesses, reduced emergency personnel, and so forth.

[4] This is what a future pandemic can do. So planning for it and understanding how we will meet it is the best thing we can do and the one thing we must focus our efforts on.