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Session Details
Guest Name Prof. Muqtedar Khan  , Senior Nonresident Fellow, Brookings Institution
Subject Pakistan & Musharraf: Future Scenarios
Date Wednesday,Nov 14 ,2007
Time Makkah
From
... 17:00...To... 18:00
GMT
From
... 14:00...To...15:00
 
Name
Editor - Hany Ramadan    - 
Profession
Question Dear visitors,

The session has just started. Please, send us your questions.

After the session has ended, you can view the whole dialogue by clicking Recent Sessions, or the archive.


Yours,
Muslim Affairs
Answer .
 
Name
Maha    - 
Profession
Question What do you think are the real reasons for announcing the state of emergency in Pakistan? And is it true that Bhutto is the only opposition leader that has access to her supporters while other opposition leaders don't?

Answer Assalamu Alaykum (AA). The trigger for the emergency was obviously Gen. Musharraf preempting the supreme court from declaring his election as President unconstitutional.

The Jamaat-e-Islami leader can meet with his immediate supporters too. In fact, at the moment Imran Khan is unable to communicate with anyone, he was on the run, and just now has been arrested.
 
Name
Waqas    - 
Profession Student
Question Do you think USA will in the future attack pakistan or its nuclear missiles?

Answer Quite unlikely. The Pakistani military is not a pushover like Iraq's, it has nuclear weapons and the US needs its support against Al Qaeda and the Taliban.

If the Pakistani Taliban were to take over Pakistan and its nuclear weapons then both India and the US will have serious strategic reasons for trying to disarm Pakistan's nuclear arsenal.
 
Name
Muhammad Asad    - 
Profession Chartered accountancy student
Question Salamo alaikum

How do you see Pakistan with Preisdent Musharraf in future?

DO you think it would be a wise step for Prsident Mushraff to come to power in a ocean of all these previous corrupt politicans?

Sometimes force have to be used to maintain peace, how far does this goes with Preisdent Mushraff Policies? Thank you

Answer Every major step that the General has taken in the past few days has reduced the possibility of his having a long-term future at the helm of Pakistani politics.

His desperate attempts to stay in power are indicative that he is not immune to corruption himself.

If he uses excessive force against protesters, it will only enlarge the opposition and unite the political parties. Already Ms Bhutto has started calling for a joint platform with Nawaz sharief and Imran Khan.

His actions may also open the door for another General to come forward and rescue Pakistan.
 
Name
Ameen    - 
Profession
Question Don't you think Pakistan needs a man like Musharraf, as a man of force that can eliminate the extremism in rise in the Nuclear Pakistan?

Where will Pkaistan go if Musharraf quits?

Answer Mushrraf too has demonstrated that he is capable of extreme measures. The root of the current crisis is basically his refusal to give up his position as the chief of military while also retaining the Presidency.

According to American National Intelligence Estimates both al Qaeda and the Taliban have reconstituted themselves in Pakistan. In the past one year more people have died by extremist violence in Afghanistan and Pakistan than in any year since 2002. All of this has happened while Gen. Musharraf claims that he is fighting extremism.

Beyond Musharraf things will get worse before they get better for sure. One may actually witness the steady unraveling of Pakistani polity and that can be dangerous for the region and for global order.
 
Name
Student    - 
Profession
Question What is the real role of the US in this Pakistani-pakistani conflict? Do you think the US intellegince has played a role in destablizing the conditions in Pakistan for the sake of India and for getting rid of the alledged Taliban supporters in Pakistan?

Answer The US does not do things for India, it pursues its own national interests and the wishes of its public. India's and US interests are aligned on the need for a stable Pakistan that can resist the growing influence of radical and extremist forces.

It is not in their interest that Pakistan becomes unstable and degenerates into a failed state unleashing unexpected and unwanted problems and challenges in the region.

This current crisis is basically a consequence of a personality clash between Gen. Mushrraf and Justice Chaudhry.

The fault ultimately is Musharraf's who tried to sustain the pretext of democracy while violating the constitution.
 
Name
Ahmed Abdelrazik    - 
Profession
Question Will Buhtto be the next leader of Pakistan? The current situation says that she is the US only promoted opposition leader in Pakistan. How do you assess her weigh now on the public level?

Answer Ms. Bhutto is the primary beneficiary of the current crisis. She is in Pakistan, she is getting the most press and she seems to be calling all the shots. The opposition is coming primarily from her party and the lawyers.

No doubt her profile has increased significantly. But most experts estimate that she enjoys the support of only about 30% of the electorate.

If there is an interim government, created to succeed Musharraf, she will be the candidate who is most likely to get the job.

She also does enjoy Washington's support. She was here for a month in September and October, and has done a very good job of lobbying various American institutions including the Congress, the media and the Council on Foreign Relations.

But I am not sure if the military and the Islamists [like the Jamaat-e-Islam] will support her.
 
Name
Hussain    - 
Profession
Question Where are the moderate Islamic movements is this rampant situation in Pakistan? Can they actively work on the ground to make change or they are totally under Musharraf oppression and control. Can they be one day like those of Palestine's Hamas?

Answer Palestine's Hamas is not exactly a moderate force. Its recent actions in Gaza are more brutal than even Musharraf's current crackdown.

The Jamaat-e-Islami of Pakistan, in my opinion, is a moderate force since it does not reject democracy nor does it advocate use of force, or terrorism.

But it does not enjoy popular support. The Pakistani Muslim league can play a major role but their leader, Nawz Sharif, is in exile.

If not detained, Imran Khan had an opportunity to come forward and play a role

Pakistan needs a party like Turkey's AKP that can enjoy Islamic legitimacy while actually pursuing genuinely beneficial economic and developmental policies.
 
Name
Ihsan    - 
Profession
Question Is Musharraf now a losing horse in the eyes of the US foreign policy? How do you see the US-Musharraf relationship during the last 8 years, since Musharraf came to power?

Answer I have described the evolving Mush-Bush relationship in my article for Islamonline.net in much detail. Please see:

http://www.islamonline.net/servlet/Satellite?c=Article_C&cid=1193049457248&pagename=Zone-English-Muslim_Affairs%2FMAELayout

Washington still needs Musharraf, he is its best bet in Pakistan, but his recent actions have embarrassed the US. Musharraf is not very popular with the Democrats who now control the US Senate and increasingly people are asking why is Bin laden still free.

We have given Pakistan 11 billion dollars, what we have got in return, a revitalized al Qaeda and a rejuvenated Taliban.

The Taliban have killed more US troops in 2007 -- 110 so far -- and more NATO troops (104) in Afghanistan. These figures are worse than in any year since US invaded Afghanistan in 2001.

Hamid Karzai blames Musharraf for the growing strength of the Taliban who regrouped in Pakistan. For casualties in Afghanistan see: http://www.icasualties.org/oef
 
Name
Editor    - 
Profession
Question An agreement has been just reached between Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif to form a united opposition front against Musharraf. Bhutto has also agreed with Qazi Hussain Ahmed, leader of the powerful Jamaat-e-Islam (Islamic Group)to work together for restoring the constitution. How do you weigh up such agreements?

Answer This agreement will move Bhutto to the forefront of the current opposition to emergency and martial law [as some describe it] and put additional pressure on Gen. Mushrraf.

But I do not expect it to last or have an enduring consequence. It was only a few months ago that Nawaz Sharif organized an All Parties Conference in London which was attended by PPP representatives but not Bhutto, even though she was in London at that time.

Clearly she was more in favor of a solo bid then.

The parties do not trust each other and will abandon the alliance for slightest advantage.

Ms. Bhutto has a foot in every boat. She is keeping all her options open: (1) interim government with Washington's support, (2) PM's position with an alliance with Musharraf and (3) a glorious struggle for democracy leading all parties if 1 and 2 fail.
 
Name
Mahmood    - 
Profession
Question Pakistan is a strong country in Asia, but why the Muslims there unable to take actual steps toward democracy like Malaysia?

Do you expect another chief army to replace Musharraf?

Answer Mahmood, please read my article Pakistan and the Future of Democracy on Islamonline.net Pakistanis have taken major steps towards democracy and their constitutional debates in the 1950s are some of the best discussions the Ummah has had on the subject of Islam and democracy.

It is a liberal state with free media and a very independent minded judiciary, but for a democracy to work, a significant section of the population must want it and work towards it everyday.

Even after 200 years, we struggle in America to sustain and nurture our democratic institutions and sadly we fail on some days and on some days, alhamdulillah, we succeed.

Establishing and retention of democracy requires a daily jihad.
 
Name
Shpilkus    - 
Profession Pantsmaker
Question If Musharraf is forced to leave, who will control the weapons of mass destruction?

Answer Pakistan's rather modest nuclear arsenal is in the hands of its top generals. The civilian leadership has never had control over them. After Mushrraf, the next Chief of staff will have control over them.

The most likely candidate is Gen. Ashfaq Pervez Kiyani. See this article about him:

http://www.cfr.org/publication/14408/newsweek.html
 
Name
Mohammed Al-Hindi    - 
Profession
Question Assalamu alaikum

There were so many options put forward by Musharraf for solving the Kashmir crisis. Also, there was continuing a back-door diplomacy to solve this. Do you think those options will be still valid under a democratically elected future government or the newcomer will push forward his/her own initiatives putting aside Musharraf's thinking?

Answer Even though he was the architect of the Kargil war, Mushrraf did show great initiative on resolving the Kashmir issue. I think that democratic leaders will have less freedom to be as bold as he was on this issue.

Remember leaders in Pakistan can be secular -- oppose Islamization -- and still win elections like Bhutto's PPP. But nobody can be moderate on Kashmir and enjoy popular support.

There is need for genuine and serious public rethinking and dialogue on Kashmir and on the role of Islam in politics in Pakistan.

But for that they need to have an intimidation free environment -- democracy.
 
Name
Editor - Hany Ramadan    - 
Profession
Question The session has ended. We would like to thank Prof. Muqtedar Khan for taking the time to answer your questions, and all those who participated in the dialogue.


Best regards,
Muslim Affairs,
Hany Ramadan.
Answer .
 

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