The session has started. Join us with your questions.
Answer
-
Name
Aisha
-
Profession
Student
Question
Salaam Alaikum
There have been conflicting analyses on the political situation in Egypt. Some say that the Egyptian government is crumbling and is struggling to hold on to power. Others say that liberation in Egypt (and other parts of the Arab world) is decades away. What is your opinion and how realistic is it to assume the demise of the Egyptian regime in the near future?
Thank you for your time.
Answer
There are no signs at the moment that there are divisions within the security services and the army, and these are always crucial for the collapse of the regime. But having said that, the level of anti-Mubarak sentiments is unprecedently high.
Many see the regime as politically (not to mention economically) bankrupt, and some are drawing parallels between the current events and the infamous “Sept 1981 arrests” that sealed Sadat’s doom.
There’s an excellent article about that on the following blog: http://baheyya.blogspot.com/2006/05/mubarak-fin-du-rgime.html
There is hardly the mass demos that toppled the regimes in Central and Eastern Europe, or in Indonesia (funny enough, Suharto’s last foreign visit before his ousting was to Cairo to see Mubarak). Still, steadily since 2000 (with the outbreak of the Palestinian intifada) the Egyptian political groups on the left and the right have been increasingly becoming more vocal, and mobilized a number of big demos against the regime.
The street pressure, added to the pressure that was exerted by the US at some point in 2005, have managed to gain a margin of freedom of expression and organization. That margin is currently under attack by Mubarak’s security services. There have been more than 700 activists detained since April. However, there’s still persistence and resilience on part of the activist circles to keep the pressure on. Tomorrow, May 25, a demonstration is scheduled in solidarity of the Judges’ stand. We’ll see if the security decides to strike against it too.
Name
Egfoo Yong
- Hong Kong
Profession
Shrimp Photographer
Question
The famous Irish playwright William Shakespeare once asked "To be or not to be, that is the question." Isn't that the central crux regarding Egypt's inability or unwillingness to combat the scourge of Islamic terrorism? What is your opinion regarding that thought?
Answer
I’m afraid Egypt’s problems are rooted in something bigger than it’s “inability or unwillingness to combat Islamic terrorism.”
First, the regime here has always been dead serious about confronting, not just Islamist militancy but, any form of dissent that might affect the state’s power, and the interests of the Mubaraks and their tight circle of followers in the army and the businessworld.
From 1992 till 1997, the security services launched a severe campaign against the Jihad and the Gamaa Islamiya, employing tactics borrowed heavily from the “dirty war” tactics in Latin America. One thousand people, mostly police officers and militants, died. Five more new prisons at least were built in the 1990s, to host the detainees ever-growing population, that bordered on 40,000 persons, according to rights groups. Families of suspects were taken as hostages.
Torture was widely used as a means of interrogation. Civilians were tried in martial courts, including non-militant Islamists, like the Muslim Brothers.
I guess, that shows there was at least “willingness” on part of the regime to “combat the scourge of Islamic terrorism.”
I would argue, however, that “Islamic terrorism” is a symptom, not the cause, of Egypt’s problems. Some say 9/11 was born in Egyptian prisons, and I honestly agree. The successive military rulers we had in Egypt, ending with Mubarak today, have stifled peaceful dissent, and monstrously tortured the opposition activists, to the extent that left many thinking “moderate” means cannot be used to bring to the extent that left many thinking “moderate” means cannot be used to bring about change.
Name
Shaimaa
- Egypt
Profession
Question
The current prime minister, who is nothing more than a government official representing the policies of the egyptian regime, said that the Muslim brotherhood's attempts will be blocked. We all know the vast support for this group in the Egyptian street. who gave the government the right to call this group an illegitimate group? it is up to us the people to decide that. I sincerely believe that all the reform charades in Egypt is pointless and all the current changes are nothing but a smokes mirror to deceive uncle sam who is not interested in democracy but rather putting up a show as well. what happened to the judges on the hands of a government appointed council is a disgrace and now the people have to take permission before demonstrating. it is like to going to your jailer to ask for a release permit. this is pathetic.
Answer
I recall back in 2003, with the war on Iraq, an activist (whom I can’t recall his name) obtained a license to hold an anti-war rally in Sayyeda Aisha, by a court order. So we have a court here that ruled this guy should have the right to hold a demo. Still, the security services banned the demo, and arrested the activist. (I’m sure if you surf the web, you’ll find background info on that incident).The point here is that the Prime Minister is trying to turn the issue into a “legal” or a “procedural” issue, which is not the case. It is a political issue. The government does NOT want to have street demos held even if there is a “license”.
Still, we cannot deny there has been an improvement in the level of freedom of organization and association over the past couple of years. Part of it was, indeed as our reader said, cosmetic to please the US, but the biggest chunk of it had to do with the street pressure.
There has been increasingly militant street demos since October 2000, one week following the outbreak of the intifada, that the one week following the outbreak of the intifada, that the government was not used to. Sheer repression was employed initially, and when they found it didn’t work (in addition to being bad on TV) they started to allow this room for activists to demonstrate. Force was mainly employed in large scale demos like those we had in April 2002 at Cairo U, and March 2003 in Tahrir Square.
Now, the United States is clearly sending signals to the Egyptian regime that it is not pushing the “democracy” scheme any more, so Mubarak feels more confident in cracking down on dissent. But that does not mean the people, who’ve been in the street for the past five years, are going to simply retreat. Once you taste street politics, it’s hard to let it go.
Name
Salah
- Sudan
Profession
Lawyer
Question
What is your view on Prime Minister Nazif's statement that no political party can have a religious basis in Egypt?
How does that compare to a country like Sudan where some of the biggest parties have a religious basis?
Answer
Nazif is reiterating the government position that no parties should be founded “based on religion or class.” That simply means Islamists and Communists do NOT have the right to establish political parties.
But anyways, even if you are not an Islamist or a communist, in order to establish a party in Egypt, you have to obtain a license from the Shura Council’s (Upper House) “Parties Commission.” It is a government-controlled committee, headed by a former intelligence officer-turned-politician, Mr. Safwat al-Sherrif, the former minister of information and a high ranking National Democratic Party official. Most license requests are turned down.
Name
Ranwa
-
Profession
Question
Is there a maturing strategy for the opposition in Egypt? In light of the events of the past two years, do you feel there is a formation of something that will eventually have a strong strategy that will be able to have widespread popular mobilization?
Answer
Yes, I firmly believe the political groups in Egypt: Islamists, leftists, and (to a lesser extent) the liberals, are maturing by the day.
Remember that politics was dead in Egypt during the 1990s, because of the insurgency and the counterinsurgency. The intifada revived everybody, and pushed towards a new level of organization.
Now, there are different groups who are amalgamating together, like Kefaya, and the Hamla Sha3biya, who are mainly targeting Mubarak’s succession scheme. But there are also other groups on the left, like the Revolutionary Socialists who grew exponentially over the past five years, and they present a solid anti-Mubarak platform. The Muslim Brothers also have learnt to accept other groups’ differences, and coordinate together.
There are some good signs.. though still we are not talking Ukraine here.
Name
Dalia
- Egypt
Profession
Question
Some people think that the current situation in Egypt is similar to that which perceded al-Sadat's assassination. What do u think?
Answer
As I mentioned earlier, many draw parallels between the current political climate and that of the infamous “Autumn of Fury” in 1981.
In my view, there are similarities in terms of the repression against dissent from all colors of the political spectrum, and the bankruptcy of the regime. However, we do not have today the militant groups, like the Jihad, that could plot for the President’s assassination. I think a “bread intifada” a la January 1977 is a more plausible scenario.
Name
Sonia Carrasco
- Chile
Profession
Question
How do you see the current egyptian-american relations in light of recent violations (Nour's prisonment..etc)? Will Egypt become next Iraq some time soon?
Thanks,
Answer
It is true that every now and then Washington expresses “concern” about this or that, but the truth is, the US is more interested in regional stability at the moment, especially that things are going down the drains in Iraq.
The US cannot afford opening another front in the region. You can see this clearly in the current Cold War between the United States and Iran. I can assure you if the situation was stable and rosy in Iraq, Rumsfield’s fighter jets would have been hammering Tehran by now.
The United States is also less keen at the moment with pushing for a reform agenda, after the Msulim Brothers ascendance in Egypt and Hamas in Palestine.
Name
Karen
- United States
Profession
Question
Do u think that fair elections will bring Islamists to power in Egypt?
Answer
Voters in Egypt don’t just vote according to political agendas. There are family, tribal, sectarian, territorial, class factors involved. Khaled Mohi ed-Dein, the “communist” head of the left wing Tagammu party, doesn’t run for a seat in working class districts, but rather back in his home town in the Nile Delta where he’s assure the votes of “good Muslims” who are related by blood to him.
Even, with religion being on the ascendance now in Egypt, the Muslim Brothers' majority is not a guaranteed fact if fair elections happen. They may get the majority, but most probably they’ll still have to negotiate with other political powers to rule.
Name
enam
- United States
Profession
high school student
Question
asalamulikum
Do you think there will be an Islamic party soon in Egypt?
Answer
There are already Islamic parties in Egypt, like the (frozen) Labor Party, the (unlicensed) Wassat party headed by Engineer Abul-Ila Maddi, in addition of course to the mammoth (still illegal) Muslim Brothers. There were hopes the Wassat would be granted a license to operate as the first legal Islamist party, but its case is still debated in courts.
I don’t think the current regime would ever allow the Muslim Brothers a license to operate. They may do deals with the Brothers, they may even coordinate (like what happened in March 2003) political events with the Brothers, but Mubarak will never allow them a legal status.
