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Name
Fred
-
Profession
Question
Do you think that the US is going to wage war on Iran, a war that would result in regime change just like what happened in Iraq? What is the scenario that you expect to take place in this regard?
Answer
I don't think that the U.S. can launch war against Iran, at least in the short run, due to several reasons:
First of all, the situation in Iraq is unstable, especially regarding the American troops in Iraq, as these troops have started to confront a serious resistance movement that is causing trouble for the U.S. Moreover, it is difficult for Washington to open a new front before maintaining stability on the Iraqi front.
Secondly, after a few months from now, the preparation for the elections in the U.S. will start. Usually the American administration freezes all foriegn issues during times of elections; consequently, the U.S. will not be able to think during this period of time about opening a new military front in a country like Iran.
Thirdly,the situation in Iran is different from that in Iraq with regard to the regime itself and the regime within its regional and international contexts. Internally , the two main political currents, i.e. the reformists and the conservatives, oppose all kinds of foreign intervention with internal Iranian affairs.
It should be mentioned also that the regime itself enjoys several capabilities and legitmacy on the military and public levels. The regime in Iran is not suffering from any isolation on the regional and international levels. This reality makes us conclude that its difficult for the U.S. to launch a war against Iran, and we expect that the U.S. will sustain its economic and political pressures on Iran.
Name
Mohamed
- Pakistan
Profession
Question
How far can the demonstrations that are taking place in Iran affect the power and legitimacy of the Iranian regime? Can demonstrations at a certain point go as far as to topple the regime?
Answer
The recent demonstraions don't affect the legitmacy of the Iranian regime especially that their size is very limited as they didn't reach the size of ten thousands of participants; the demonstrations didn't put an end to daily life in Iran. On the contrary we can consider the presence of student protests to be supportive for the legitmacy of the regime. Demonstrations in Iran resemble what happens in Western democratic countries, regardless of the slogans that appeared in such demonstrations.
To sum up, these demonstration don't cause any fear for the the existance and stability of the Iranian regime, but they unveil, at the same time, that the Iranian society, especially the youth, are suffering.
Name
Mina
-
Profession
Question
Salam
Dear Dr. Atrissi,
What is your opinion on the chanse of peaceful reforms in Iran vs civil unrest, which might be used by the US to justify an attack on the country? Thanks in advance for your answer.
Answer
I think that peaceful reforms started in Iran several years ago, and the existence of the reformists -- led by President Khatamy -- represents this initiative. It is obvious that there are different points of view regarding reform and its boundaries, just like what happens normally in any country that enjoys a bi-party system.
And I don't think that unrests will occur in Iran and intensify to the point of a civil war between the two different currents; it is expected that this situation will stay as it is. Each of the two parties will continue exerting pressure on the other.
It is worth mentioning that whenever the American intervention increases, this will be reflected internally, as internal conflicts will decrese, for internal powers will be busy facing the external threat.
Name
Abdur Raheem
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Profession
Question
Iran has been surrounded by the US occupation forces in Afghanistan and in Iraq. Also, there are more Arab governments that want a closer relationship with the US. Taken that, and the recent nuclear accusations, into consideration, what is the long-term viability of this present Iranian Government?
Answer
Despite the fact that the American military is surrounding Iran in Afghanistan and Iraq, Iran still has a lot of strong advantages which can be used to counter-pressure the US government. Iran has signicant influence in Afganistan and wide relations with tribe leaders there, and with some military leaders. It has also important influence in Iraq, especially within the shia'a community. All of these relations can be used against the US. Iran also has an impact on the Middle East, especially on the resistance movements against Israel .
These are powerful cards that Iran can play whenever it finds itself confronted with American threats.
Name
Ahmad
- Canada
Profession
Machinist
Question
It was early 1980's when I heard the first cry for a united Muslim front (between Sunni & Shiite sects) and I wonder what happened since then, and did any one learn from that phrase: (I was eaten when the lion ate the white cow)?
Answer
According to my understanding of your question, I would say that the unity of Muslims is essential for preventing external threats or pressures against any Muslim country. However, such a unity necessarly requires conditions that should be available to reach such a goal, such as uniting the stances of Muslim countries -- at least among some Muslim countries -- toward fundamental issues. Their political stance should be unified.
This can be clearly seen in light of what is happening in Palestine. Had there been a unified position of a group of Muslim countries, not necessarly the whole Muslim world , things would certainly have been different, and Intifada's circumstances would be certainly be in a better shape. Muslim unity is to help curb and face the threats that surround Muslim countries.
Name
Sara
-
Profession
Question
Are the Iranian and American interests always at odds?
Answer
There is no permanent contradiction between Iranian and American interests. It happened sometimes that they had the same concerns: They were both interested in removing Taliban in Afghanistan; moreover, Iran didn't really reject the removal of the Iraqi regime.
I think that the strategic contradiction between the two countries is concerning Palestine, and a significant portion of the American pressures on Iran is due to the Iranian position towards the existence of Israel itself. This difference cannot be resolved simply and immediately.
Name
Nasim
-
Profession
Question
If the U.S. wages war on Iran, can Iran (miltarily) withstand such an attack?
Answer
I think that the case of Iran differs from that of Iraq as Iran has military capabilities that would enable it to confront the US. It can use a lot of the weapons it has been improving during the past few years.
On the public level, Iran can mobilize at least tens of thousands to face any American invasion. At the same time, any American attempt to occupy Iran requires a larger number of troops than those that invaded Iraq -- It is impossible for the US to deploy the required number of troops in Iran in the meantime.
I think that what the US can do is to launch several operations in specific places, not a complete invasion like the one that took place in Iraq.
Name
Omar
- United States
Profession
Question
Asalamu Alaikum,
Do you think that if Iran is attacked by the US, the former will retaliate by attacking those countries which the US uses as launching bases?
Thanks for taking my question.
Answer
I don't think that, in case of a confrontation, Iran would resort to attacking all the countries that host American military bases; but most probably it would launch a sabotage warfare against American interests in some countries, such as Afghanistan and Iraq, where Iran has sufficient capabilities and influence that can be used against the US.
Name
Ahmed
-
Profession
Question
Dear Dr.Talal Atrissi,
You have mentioned that the U.S will not be able to attack Iran at the moment due to ongiong , unresolved conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan? How long are the Iranians going to sit around before they sort out the conflicts and then move in to Iran?
Will Saudi Arabia be next after Iran...?
Answer
With regard to the problems in Iraq, they need a lot of time to be resolved; and the Americans are expected to remain for several years in Iraq. This means also that the American troops might confront Iran, but in later stages. Additional Iraqi resistance would mean delaying the military confrontaion between the US and Iran, and this might explain the American affirmations that the change they are willing to achieve in Iran is an internal one -- not through military force from outside.
With respect to Saudi Arabia, I don't think it will be the next country after Iran because the US might achieve its political aims in this country just through political pressure.
The US, also, is not interested in changing the Saudi political regime; it rather needs this regime to adopt several political and educational reforms to prevent the continuity of what the US consider to be rigid and extreme fundamentalism.
Name
Abdullah
-
Profession
Question
If Iran had nuclear weapons, how would it deal with the pro-US Arab Governments and the Palestinian Intifida? And, would it call for Islamic unity?
Answer
The Iranian nuclear energy has been used for peaceful purposes; and even if it was transformed into military capacity, it will never target any of the Arab countries because Iran does not need to maintain a military balance with such countries. And there is no real Arab military threat against Iran.
The serious military threat is from USA and Israel. Consequently, any development of nuclear weapons in Iran would certainly be against these two countries in particular.
Regardless of the nuclear weapons that Iran might acquire, Iran has called for Islamic unity since the outbreak of the Islamic revolution.
Name
AbderRahim
-
Profession
teacher
Question
Assalamu Alaikum,
The situation in Iran has been problematic for the US since the fall of the Shah regime. The US has made many attempts to topple down the Islamic government (Iraqi/Iranian war, embargoes, listing among terrorism funding regimes, etc) but they were all in vain, because of the strong support and dedication of the Iranian public opinion to the government. Do you think that the recent events will open the gate for an American oblique intervention to sideline Iran from further obstacling of the realisation of the American religious, geopolitical and economic interests in the region?
Answer
In a previous question, I have already mentioned that any American intervention would strengthen the internal Iranian structure and make the Iranians unite. Thus, I don't see that the recent developments in Iran can be considered as an opportunity for the US to implement certain policies that are suitable for its strategic and economic interests.
Name
Nancy
-
Profession
Question
What do the majority of Iranians want? Do they want to oust the Iranian regime altogether? Are the majority of Iranians against the Islamic political system in the country? If the Iranians are against the current Islamic system, are they necessarily for a secular political system, or they want radical reform to take place in the current system? I mean, do they want a different but still Islamic political system, or they want a secular political system?
What are the factors that affect the US foreign policy toward Iran? How is the American policy in Iran shaped? Why is the US interested in Iran?
Answer
The majority of Iranians want reforms to take place within the Islamic system, and this is the opinion of the reformists who elected president Khatami. (Twenty million Iranians elected President Khatami.) This doesn't mean that there are no groups who want to remove the Islamic system altogether.
The required reform, according to the reformists, is the amendment of the several laws relating to the prerogatives of the president, i.e., decreasing the prerogatives of the institutions controlled by the conservatives and simaltaneously increasing the prerogatives of the President .
The main factors that determine the American policy towards Iran are the security of Israel and the protection of oil. I think that as long as Iran threatens these two basic interests of the US, especially the security of Israel, the US will be in conflict with Iran.
