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Answer
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Name
zahir
- Australia
Profession
health worker
Question
The newly voted sanctions on Iran have been accompanied by recent intense US dilomatic activity in the Middle East to build an anti-Iran alliance. Is the primary intention to prevent Iran from assisting Iraq? Or to leave Iran isolated and vulnerable to US acts of aggression?
Answer
With regard to Iran there are different objectives for American diplomacy; the US has come to realize that containing the Iranian influence in the Middle East and limiting its strategic assets in the Gulf, in Iraq, in Lebanon represents a precondition to restabilize the region and protect the role and interests of the US. Iran is perceived as the prime strategic adversary of the US.
A second objective is definitely to revitalize (or reinvent) the image of the American protection of its Gulf allies in the face of a growing military threat by Iran. It's worth noting that the administration has been trying systematically to impose its conflict-based perception of Iran on the Arab Gulf countries and to get them to act in accordance to the narrative of the Iranian Threat.
Finally, it's definitely about preventing Iran from developing its nuclear program against the background of potentially threatening the Israeli military supremacy in the region. Here, it's worth noting that the EU Three agree with the US on this objective, in spite of their less confrontational views on 1 and 2.
Name
Khadija
- Pakistan
Profession
Question
To what extent does ideology affect Iran's stance on the nuclear program issue, in particular, and the Iranian politics, in general?
Answer
There are a lot of similarities between the Islamic Republic and the Shah regime with regard to foreign policy. Iran is driven today as it was driven under the Shah by national security interests, which are defined as 1) playing a dominant regional role in the Gulf, and 2) safeguarding the stability of the regime. These two components have nothing to do with ideology. Ideology, however, comes in when one looks at Iran's approach with regard to the US and Israel. There is an alternative Iranian project to the US in the Middle East that is based on 1) driving the Americans out of Iraq, 2) empowering pro-Iranian resistance movements and political actors, 3) changing the military balance in the region in favor of Iran, and 4) isolating Israel.
In domestic politics, though, ideology plays a central role in how society and politics have been shaped since 1979 as well as in explaining the differences between power factions (so-called radicals and moderates) within the Iranian ruling establishment.
Name
Charlotte
- Denmark
Profession
Question
In light of the recent tension in the Russian-Iranian relations, what is the significance of the unanimous adoption of the new Security Council Resolution? Do you think that the West is exercising pressure on Russia?
Answer
It proves the limits of depending on differences within the international community and of the assumption that these differences limit the capacity of the UN to agree on meaningful binding resolutions.
Regardless of how we read or stand to the Iranina program, the current resolution 1747 shows that 1) there is a degree of consensus with the Security Council 5+Germany on imposing significant sanctions on Iran if it does not comply, 2) that these sanctions do not close the door on diplomatic dialogue in case Iran complies, 3) that the military option remains excluded as long as it's possible to impose and develop the sanction regime.
Russia, just as China, has vital interests with the West. It takes different positions on regional and global issues but there is a minmum of consensus. Russians opposed even more severe sanctions on Iran, but there are limits of the role as a protector of Iran since they are not interested in opposing the West or jeopardizing their relations with it. The same applies to China.
Name
Sherif
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Profession
Question
Dear Dr Amr,
What do you expect the upcoming summit in Riyadh to yield regarding Arab policies towards Iran?
Answer
More of bridging the diplomacy gap.
Arabs have no interest in becoming a part of the conflict over the nuclear program, which has been internationalized. And they need Iran and its strategic assets to come to meaningful solutions in Iraq and Lebanon. The Saudi diplomacy towards Iran in the last months is an example.
I think the US has failed in getting Arab powers, especially Saudi Arabia, to enter into a confrontation with Iran. There are confrontational elements with regard to Iraq and Lebanon and definitely the nuclear program, but Arabs have so far rejected the reductionist nature of the US approach and are in fact operating more based on a compromise-oriented approach.
And Iran needs the Arabs since it has no interest in seeing the region explode -- it needs some regional refusal of an American military adventure against it, and to avoid appearing as a sectarian power.
Name
Ahmad
-
Profession
Question
Dr Amr,
Regards.
(1) To what scale, in your point of view, is Iran intervening in Iraqi issues? Do you think Iran would be actually engaged with weaponry supply?
(2) Did Iran take the British soldiers to assert their stance against the sanctions, or was it purely a routine procedure?
(3) Given the deep mortgage troubles in the US, the fear of dwelling in a recession, the fear of a stock market crash: would the US be serious at addressing its usual we-can-strike-you remarks against Iran?
Thanks in advance.
Answer
1) Iran has become a dominant external actor in Iraq and its centrality is not less than the US. And yes, it has been engaged in weaponary supply to Shiite as well as Sunni groups. This is not contradictory from the Iranian poiint of view; empowering Shiite allies serves the objective of building a new Iraq that is ruled by its Shiite majority, and weaponry supplies to Sunni resistance groups serves the objective of deepening the American turmoil in Iraq which keeps the US away, or at least this is the Iranina reading, from new military adventures.
2) Of course, it comes against the background of the new UN resolution and against the background of rising tensions with the West. And Iran retaliates after several American and British provocations in the last weerks. There are no routine procedures in our part of the world.
3) The Bush administration still sees the military solution as an option, but its viability has definitely decreased. Not because of the factors mentioned, but becuase of the potential risks it entails on American interests in the Gulkf (the huge military presence in Iraq and elsewhere in the bases across the Gulf) and becuase the military outcome of a possible air strike on Iran is uncertain; Iran has a power of deterrance which the US has to take into account.
Name
Mai
- Egypt
Profession
Question
Why has Ahmadinejad been portrayed as the designer of Iran's nuclear policies despite the fact that the determination of such policies is at the hands of the Supreme Leader?
Answer
His image in the West, especially in the US, is that of a radical, Holocaust denier, dangerous leader.
There is a great deal of ignorance in the Western media (especially TV stations) with regard to policy-making processes in Iran. This results in a tendency to reduce the complex ruling establishment in Iran -- with its division of labor between institutions, between religious supreme leaders and politicans -- into a simple binary distinction or duality of moderates and radicals.
It's also misleading because this perception ignores that there is a high degree of national consensus in Iran over the nuclear program and pursuing Iranian national interests.
Name
James
- United States
Profession
Question
Do you think that Iran will eventually give up to international pressure?
Answer
The internatioal pressure has been building up over the last two years. Iran needs to respond and to search for compromises with the five permanent members + Germany. A change of the course is needed, from attempts to play on differences between them to understanding the consensus among these powers and trying to deal with it.
But, I don't see Iran giving up the quest for its nuclear program. In fact, even moderates insist on it but would like to be less confrontational in dealing with the international community.
There are now real sanctions in place and although Iran can manage them (especially due to the current oil prices), they will have an impact on the Iranian economy whose conditions have not improved greatly in recent years.
Iran will either become willing to compromise without giving up (the EU Three had some interesting suggestions with regard to sustainigna nuclear program in Iran without enriching uranium) or move into an even more confrontational approach, which does not mean war but means increased tensions with the international community.
It seems that there are differences in Iran with regard to how to proceed based on one of these two options. But giving up is not an option for them now.
Name
Zahra
- South Africa
Profession
Question
Commenting on the statements made lately by the French President, Jacques Chirac, on the Iranian nuclear program, Tony Emerson, the Managing Editor of the Newsweek, wrote that he heard the same thing from a key European diplomat invovled in the nuclear talks with Tehran: "We don't worry about Iran having the bomb." Do you think that this is true? Isn't the West really worried about Iran having the bomb?
Answer
Of course the US and Israel are more worried about the bomb than the EU. But even in Europe there are real worries about managing a nuclear Iran. In Germany, with its traditional commitment to Israel's security, the perception is very close to the US. So the argument does not apply in general nor in its totality. True is, however, that the international community has come to accept the expansion of the nuclear club in the last years and could not prevent any country that has reached an advanced technological stage from acquiring the nukes.
Name
Helen
- United States
Profession
Question
How will the new resolution adopted by the UN Security Council members affect Tehran? What will happen if Iran didn't comply during the next 60 days?
Answer
It will have serious affects in the long run. Sanction regimes build up their impacts gradually. If Iran does not comply, the sanctions will be pushed up one more time. There is a clear conditionality in the resolution, which is time-based: You do not comply, you get an even worse resolution.
Name
Mick
- Australia
Profession
Question
In your opinion, what are the differences between the North Korean and the Iranian cases in terms of the nuclear program issue?
Answer
The strategic importance and the regional reality.
Iran is a central player in its region, North Korea is not. Iran has allies across the region (primarily non-state actors), North Korea does not have allies apart from China, which has an interest in containing North Korea and reducing stability risks in its part of the world.
One more point: North Korea is also easier to press: It needs economic assistance from its neighbors (Japan and South Korea), it needs humanitarian aid. It's more vulnerable as compared to Iran. The deal reached with North Korea clearly documents this vulnerability as well as the regional reality in this part of the world.
Name
Muhammad
- Algeria
Profession
Question
Do you think that Iran's seizure of 15 British Royal Navy Personnel can lead to more escalation in the region?
Answer
No. This is not addressed to the region or even the Western presence in Iraq. It's a tool of conveying the Iranian rejection to the UN resolution and reminding the West that Iran has many regional strategic assets at its disposal.
Name
Hilary Toadstool
- New Zealand (Aotearoa)
Profession
Question
The Iranian regime has a terrible reputation for exporting terrorism against its emigres and other countries. My dear friend Prof. Cyrus Elahi was murdered in Paris by these thugs. Can the western powers unite in isolating Iran until the populace gets wise and rebels?
Answer
The West is less interested in human rights violations or abuses in Iran or by the Iranian regime abroad. (By the way, the practices that the question refers to have become less relevant in the last years. No attempts on the lives of Iranian opposition figures in the West were reported in the few last years.)
Now, the West is united to an extent with regard to the nuclear program. Regime change or pressing the regime to create a domestic environment conducive for change is not a priority for all of them. Europe definitely does not share this view. And in the US, although the view that pressures from the outside can change the domestic scene, stir up tensions, or tip the balance in favor of moderates is still there, it seems that the interest in chaning domestic conditions is declining. The US needs a change in Iraninan regional policies and less in domestic politics. The US also realizes that it has no access into Iranian domestic politics.
Name
Snerdley
- Canada
Profession
Mortgage Banker
Question
Does international finance affect decisions made by the mullahs and ayatollahs ruling Iran these days?
Answer
Gradually it will have an impact. of course, Iran, just like other oil exporting countries, enjoyes a great financial freedom now. But the new sanctions are serious against the background of a globalized world economy.
Name
Editor - Dina Abdel-Mageed
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Profession
Question
We apologize for not answering all questions due to time limitation. Thanks for your participation.
