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Answer
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Name
Akram
-
Profession
Question
Do you think the peace talsk in Sirte will achieve peace in Sudan or any progress?
Answer
There is almost not chance that the peace talks in Sirte will produce even the beginning of a peace. The cease-fire announced by Khartoum is of no more significance that previous such declarations. The absence of the most consequential rebel leaders, as well as representatives of the people consigned to the camps, ensures that there are no meaningful representatives of the people of Darfur. These talks were poorly prepared for by the AU and UN, and now serve only as a propaganda platform for Khartoum's National Islamic Front (National Congress Party).
Name
Selma
-
Profession
Question
Do you think the peace tlks in Libya will be different than the ones done in Abuja?
Answer
The will be very, very short. Libya was a terrible venue for the talks: no regional actor has done more than Muamar Gadaffi to foment violence on both sides of the Chad/Darfur Border. He lost all credibility when he declared that the Darfur conflict---which has claimed hundreds of thousands of lives, and displaced some 2.5 million, is a "quarrel over a camel." The rebels were not consulted on the choice of venue, and a new, better, more inclusive process must be begun in a more appropriate venue: perhaps Arusha, Tanzania.
Name
Fatma
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Profession
Question
are the rebel movements in Darfur supported from outside international players?
Answer
Yes and no---the arms that flow to the rebels come mainly from defeated troops of the Khartoum regime. But Chad, Libya, and Eritrea have all supplied major weapons supplies. Early in the conflict, the southern Sudan People's Liberation Movement attempted to provide help and advice; but this ends as the Naivasha Peace process reached its climax.
The rebels most desperately need serious political engagement by the outside world, help in overcoming their negotiating weaknesses. And certain leaders--Abdel Wahid el-Nur, for example, need to be persuaded to participate in the talks prior to the deployment of the hybrid AU/UN force authorized by UN Security Council Resolution 1769.
But equally important is pressuring Khartoum. So far, the Arab League and the Organization of Islamic Conference have done nothing helpful to resolve the Darfur conflict. On the contrary, by siding so unquestioningly with Khartoum, they've helped convince a brutal regime that it will pay not price for continued flouting of UN Security Council resolution, and for continuing to seek a military solution in Darfur.
Name
Dina
- United States
Profession
Question
does the USA have economic interests in Darfur specially that its rich in minerals and resources? if it does what is the USA stand towards the peace talks in Libya?
Answer
There is no evidence of any natural resources of value in Darfur---no evidence. The only valuable natural resources in Darfur are water and arable land, and competition for these has grown much more intense since the famine of 1984-85, and with the gradual spread of the Sahara Desert southward.
The US has proved incapable of responding effectively to the Darfur crisis mainly because it doesn't feel that there is anything geopolitically of value in Darfur. During the north/south peace talks, Washington was quite willing to overlook the very height of genocidal violence in Darfur in order to secure final agreement on the north/south peace.
US engagement on Darfur is primarily the result of broad-based human rights advocacy by American civil society (and increasingly world-wide civil society).
Name
Nesma
-
Profession
Question
why do you think what's happening in Darfur is a genocide?
Answer
The ethnic groups in Darfur are quite various. But we may distinguish fairly clearly between Arab tribal groups and non-Arab, or African, tribal groups. The latter tend to be farmers living in one place, often speak non-Arabic languages, and increasingly identify themselves as "African." From some of the Arab tribal groups, Khartoum has drawn the militias that make up the Janajweed ("Devil on Horseback").
The evidence of genocidal intent is overwhelming: nearly all African villages have been destroyed. Rapes and killings have been on a clearly racial basis. The examples could fill books:
A young African man who had lost many family members in an attack heard the gunmen say, "You blacks, we're going to exterminate you." Speaking of Khartoum's relentless aggression, an African tribal leader told a U.N. news service, "I believe this is an elimination of the black race." A refugee reported these words as coming from his attackers: "You are opponents to the regime, we must crush you. As you are black, you are like slaves. Then the entire Darfur region will be in the hands of the Arabs." Another African tribal chief declared, "The Arabs and the government forces...said they wanted to conquer the whole territory and that the blacks did not have a right to remain in the region." And Musa Hilal, the most powerful Janjaweed leader, declared his objective in simple terms back in 2004: "Change the demography of Darfur and empty it of African tribes."
Name
Hanna
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Profession
Question
if you have been in Darfur, can you please explain what's happening there? as some people say that the situation there is not very complicated and bad as the media protrays.
Answer
The situation is extremely bad: the UN estimates that as a result of the major violence that began in 2003, some 4.2 million people are now defined as "conflict-affected" and in need of humanitarian assistance. More than half a million people in Eastern Chad need assistance because of the spillover of violence from Darfur. The UN also estimates that some 2.5 million people have been uprooted from their homes, most losing everything. There have been various mortality studies (I've published an extensive series), and the minimum figure is 200,000 dead; I believe the actual figure, from all causes (violence, disease, malnutrition) exceeds 400,000.
Gross human rights abouses continue to be reported, including the radicalized use of rape as a weapon on war. These conclusions have been reached by every single credible human rights study of Darfur conducted; all have concluded that there have been massive crimes against humanity; many find that Darfur is the site of genocide. And the violence is poised to get much worse as the dry season begins and the talks in Sirte, Libya are on the verge of collapse.
Name
Islam
-
Profession
Question
The rebel leaders say they will not join the talks because it doesnt address the basic and main problems of the conflict, so do you think they were right in boycotting the talks?
Answer
As I indicated in a previous post, the choice of Libya was a disaster, and one on which the rebels were not consulted (any of them). The talks were set up to fail, most recently with the failure of the UN and the AU to accept the plea from a series of influential rebel leaders meeting in Juba, South Sudan, to have another month to hammer out common negotiating position. Khartoum finally freed Suleiman Jamous last month, a very belated move, given his stature and his ability to serve as a senior conciliatory figure. Jamous also believes that another month was needed. It was inexcusable not to give the rebels this time.
All this said, the rebels bear much of the responsibility for the lack of cohesiveness and unity that define them as a movement. But this fracturing was assured by the disastrous peace agreement negotiated last year in Abuja, Nigeria (May 2006), which only one rebel leader--Minni Arcua Minawi---signed. Minawi is not a representative figure, his troops have engaged in the greatest number of war crimes, and Minawi himself is very unskilled politically. That only he would sign guaranteed failure, and the lack of a Darfuri presence that could hold the Khartoum regime to its various commitments in Abuja (not of the compensation and reconstruction commitments have been met, and critically, none of the security provisions of the peace agreement has been implemented by the NIF regime.
Name
Ahmed
-
Profession
Question
What is happening in Darfur is no doubt a human tragedy. However, several respected international figures have expressed their doubts over the numbers of people reported killed and displaced. Do you think the conflict is exaggerated and politicized by international players?
Answer
There is very considerable consensus on the number of people displaced, primarily because these numbers are calculated on the basis of UN World Food Program registrations in camps for displaced persons in Darfur and refugee camps in Eastern Chad. There are also certainly mainly displaced people who don't show up in WFP records, but using just UN figures alone for Darfur and Eastern Chad, it's clear that more than 2.5 million people have been displace, most losing everything in violent attacks. The populations in the camps are overwhelmingly women and children, who remain highly vulnerable.
Mortality is much more difficult to calculate, primarily because the Khartoum regime refuses to allow for mortality studies to be conducted. A senior UN official told me after the last World Health Organization effort (Spring 2005) that conditions were deliberately made too dangerous for such a study to be repeated.
But we do have much data, both for violent mortality and mortality from disease and malnutrition. The estimates for total deaths, from all causes, ranges from a low of 200,000 to my own figure of well over 400,000 (see http://www.sudanreeves.org/Article102.html). Many of the studies that arrive at lower figures do not include data from or attempt to represent mortality from all 55 months of the conflict. Some ignore critical sources of violent mortality (for methodological reasons). Let's recall that 13 years after the Rwandan genocide, estimates of the total number of dead ranges from 500,000 to over 1 million. Mortality studies are hard to conduct, especially in a time of war and with a brutal regime that is opposed to the very ideas of scientific mortality studies (Khartoum's estimate for total deaths is a preposterous 9,000). I think we can very safely say that "hundreds of thousands" have died in Darfur, without necessarily agreeing on how many hundreds of thousands.
Name
Kareem
-
Profession
Question
How do you think the conflict in Darfur can be solved, if it cant be solved by holding peace talks? Do you think the Sudanese government can do more than declaring a cease fire from its side, however the rebels did not join?
Answer
The National Islamic Front/National Congress Party regime in Khartoum came to power by military coup in June 1989, deposing an elected government and deliberately aborting the most promising chance for a north/south peace agreement since Sudan's independence in 1956 . Sadiq el-Mahdi (Umma Party) had finally been forced by political circumstances, including DUP support of the peace agreement that had been negotiated.
Since June 1989, the National Islamic Front has never abided by a single agreement with any Sudanese party---not one, not ever. We're seeing right now the exremely dangerous consequences of Khartoum's reneging on the terms of the north/south peace agreement (the "Comprehensive Peace Agreement" that was signed in January 2005. If war resumes between Khartoum and the south---a distinct possibility, with many potential flash points---it will be country-wide, the first truly national civil war in Sudan.
Rebels in Darfur are asking why they should accept an agreement from Khartoum? The regime did not abide by the terms of the previous Darfur Peace Agreement (May 2006), either on compensation/reconstruction, or security issues. They have violated every agreement made with the UN, including the promise in a July 3, 2004 Join Communiqué with Kofi Annan, to disarm the Janjaweed (a similar "demand" was made by the Security Council in Resolution 1556, July 30, 2004).
The way to bring peace to Darfur is to put much, much more pressure on Khartoum, and to invest the resources necessary to unify the rebels, or at least establish a representative presence in peace talks held in a neutral venue. But pressure on the Khartoum regime to negotiate in good faith, with relentless follow-up and international security guarantors, is the only way to make an agreement that has any value.
Name
Anonymous
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Profession
Question
what do you think as an ordinary citizen concerned with my fellow human beings should do concerning the conflict in Darfur?
Answer
China has unrivaled leverage with Khartoum: China can make the essential difference in changing the regime's behavior. Normally, China is impervious to pressure on foreign relations policy, especially toward Sudan. But Beijing is hosting the 2008 Olympic Games and is intensely concerned by the way in which Darfur advocacy has labeled these the "Genocide Olympics," because of China's clear complicity in the Darfur genocide (China has been Khartoum's primary supplier of weapons and weapons technology over the past decade; China dominates oil production/exploration in southern Sudan; China has provided some $12 billion in commercial and capital investments in the Khartoum-dominated economy over the past decade -- rescuing that economy from its huge external debt, over $25 billion -- and China has been the chief provider of diplomatic protection at the UN.)
A campaign to highlight China's role in convincing Khartoum's genocidaries that they will never face real international pressure can be found at:
www.DreamforDarfur.org
I think this is the most important Darfur advocacy movement in the world today.
Name
Kaledovic
- Egypt
Profession
Question
What is the ultimate solution for the problems in Darfur? I guess it's to give each group their equal right of resources, but then again, who should have the last word in such a tough decision?
Thanks for your time.
Answer
The problem of resources, given the inexorable spread of the Sahara Desert southward, is critical to any lasting peace. But the urgent need is for security: some 4.2 million conflict-affected persons desperately need the protection of the AU/UN "hybrid" force. But right now, as Amnesty International and UN SG Ban Ki-moon have stressed, Khartoum is actually creating roadblocks for this force. The essential, immediate need is security: hundreds of thousands will die if insecurity forces humanitarian organizations to withdraw--millions are completely dependent upon these organizations, including the Red Crescent, for food, water, and primary health care.
A number of organizations have already withdrawn, and nearly all have been forced to evacuate, relocate, or to scale back their operations. The UN has been warning for over a year that if there is a large-scale humanitarian withdrawal, many hundreds of thousands will die--perhaps as many as 100,000 per month. The peace process will inevitably be slow; but security could not be more urgent.
When people feel secure, then the traditional leaders in Darfuri society can begin the process of healing the terribly torn society, and attempt to start the process of thinking about land tenure (the traditional Hakura system will no longer work), and to fashion reconciliation and compensation mechanisms. It's a long process, but must ultimately be built from the ground up.
Name
Ahmed
-
Profession
Question
How do you compare the problem in Darfur to that of the Palestinians living in the West Bank and Gaza? Why aren't the Palestinians’ suffering getting as much attention in the US media?
Answer
I am a professor of English by training. For the past 9 year, I've committed my life to serving as a researcher, analyst, and advocate for the people of Sudan...all the people of Sudan. I feel I have genuine expertise. For this reason, I resolutely refuse to comment publicly, in the context of my Sudan work, on other issues: if I'm perceived as trading on my Sudan expertise in other arenas, then I lose credibility, which is my only asset.
I am personally extremely sympathetic to the plight of the Palestinians. But whether news coverage is adequate (in relation to Darfur news coverage), I simply couldn't say. There are many problems with the US news media coverage of various crises around the world; but I feel comfortable criticising only Sudan coverage (which I have done in uncompromising terms).
One can't be an expert on everything. Having moved from Milton and Shakespeare to Sudan, my hope is that some day I'll be an English professor again---but not until there is a just peace for all of Sudan. My ideas on this effort are all that should be of interest to people.
Name
Editor - Doaa I. Samy
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Profession
Question
Dear readers,
Our session has ended,
I would like to thank you all for your contribution and thank our esteemed guest for his time and effor in answering the questions.
