The session has started. Please join us with your questions.
Answer
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Name
Ali
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Profession
student
Question
We see masses of conservative Iranian people demonstrating in support of conservative-like causes.
At the same time, we read about Iranian people who are fed up with conservatism and conservative politicians and who want more "freedom."
What do the Iranian people, the masses, really think? What do the Iranian people want? Where is the truth?
Please let us know if there are any statistics available in this regard?
Answer
It is very difficult to tell what people really want.
Generally, people look very liberal; however, the political scene is dominated by conservatives.
Basically, most Iranians feel that the revoltion has not given them the independence they were looking for.
They were looking for an open society, where everyone could live freely. Yet, the reality turned out to be differnt.
There was an Islamic Revolution trying to impelment sharia law.
It's important to note that this reality did not change the nature of society, which is not religious.
The pre-revolution govermnet was secular, but the revolution brought clerics to power. However, this does not mean that people have become religous.
I believe that there is misunderstanding of the issue of religiousity in general in the Middle East.
People want to be free politically. They want the rule of law. But, at the same time, they want to maintain Islamic values because because they make them feel protected.
Concerning the elections, what we know so far is that the total number of candidates is 8000. This number includes around 400 women.
Around 3000 candidates are traditional conservatives and neo-concervatives.
Yet, the number of reformist and independent candidates is 1500.
Name
Ibrahim
- Ghana
Profession
student
Question
How much power does the Iranian parliment and even President really have over key economic sectors and social issues with direct influence on voters.
Thanks
Answer
The Iraian political system is based upon the sharing of power principle.
This means that all institutions are involved one way or another in the decsion-making process.
In theory, parlimant is independent; however, the reality is difffernt.
When Mohammah Khatami wanted to modify the legislation that dealt with the prisednet's power, and put forward his suggestion to the 6th Majlis, Ayatollah Khamnie asked the then speaker, Karoubi, to avoid discussing the issue.
I believe that there is a hidden coflict over authority between differnt instututions, which is not always easy to notice.
There is no institution that can control another; therefore, sometimes they work togother while other times they compete with one another over power.
Today, there is serious debate on the military in Iran. The Revolutionary Gaurds are trying to control the economy.
According to some observers, the government is trying to ensure the loyalty of the military by granting them privileges, particularly during the time of external threat.
Name
Rola
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Profession
Question
how will the new set of UN sanctions affect the elections' results?
Answer
I beleive that the 1803 resultion will have two effects.
First, it will urge more people to rally behind traditional conservatives under the name of uniting against the US.
It will be said that the U.S.A was behind the resolution.
Second, it will discredit the reformists, who will be seen as the tool of the enemy(i.e. US). This will affect reformists' reputation badly.
Also, the new set of sanctions can make some people feel disapponted, urging them not to vote. This will mean a victory for the conservatives (this is what happened in the last elections).
There is also another possibility. People might vote for the reformists. But, it is important to note that there are many limtations on reformists, one of which is that they do not have enough candidates.
But, if reformists made it to the parliament, it would be a great victory because many of their candidates have already been disqualified.
Name
Fatemah
- United States
Profession
Question
How will the results of parliamentary elections influence presidential elections in 2009?
Answer
Good Question. The last Assembly of Experts' elections was considered a failure for Ahmadinejad's campiegn because of Rafsanjani's victory.
The results of parliamentary elections will definitely affect the presidential elections and the policies adopted by the government.
In Iran, the cost of life has become very expensive.
Ahamednejad has falied at bringing the oild revenues to to every Iraiain family's table as he promised.
Also, there are more limitations on political freedoms.
So, all of this should be taken into considerations. When the 6th Majlis failed to introduce reforms, people made different choices.
I have to admit that it is very difficult to predict the shape of the new Majlis. But, it seems that there will be more reformist representatives compared to the 7th Majlis.
Concerning the next presidential elections, the shape of the new Majlis will help us lot with predicting who the next president will be.
We also should not undermine the impact of the regional and international developments concerning the Iranian nuclear programme. The nuclear program issue can increase the gap between the political players in Tehran.
Name
Mohamed
- India
Profession
Question
do you think that conservatives will be successful in elections?
Answer
It's very difficult to predict.
I think reformists will win more seats compared to the the current Majllis.
I feel that there is an interntion in Tehran to create more balance among the different political players in the next majlis.
Name
M
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Profession
Question
Can the parliamentary elections' results affects Iran's current and future regional and international role in a way or another?
Answer
To some extent yes because the new majlis will refelct one way or another what the Iranians really want.
On major issues, there is a kind of consensus, and I don't think that there will be major changes.
Name
Jennifer
- United States
Profession
Question
if reformists succeeded in these elections, do you think that they will tackle the nuclear issue differently?
Answer
Reformists do not have any chances to win the majority of seats because - as I mentioned earlier - many of their candidates were disqualified.
According to the figures we have they, they can compete only on 30-40% of the parliament's seats. So, they will not be abe to make major changes even if some of their candidates made it to the parliament.
Name
salah
- Iraq
Profession
Question
Some observers describe the shift in power away from the clerics and towards the revolutionary guards as a "silent coup". what do you think?
Answer
There is kind of feeling within the military instituion that they were marganilzed, and that politicians - mostly clerics,are the ones who have been benefitting from the revolution.
I think that the reformists' criticism of the Revolutionary Gaurds, and the successive calls for keeping them away from politics have urged them to get more involved in the 9th presidential elections.
I expect that the Revolutionary Gaurds will continue to exert influence during the next couple of years.
Name
Leila
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Profession
Question
How will the disqualification of a big number of reformist candidates affect the course of the elections?
Answer
The disqualification of a big number of reformist candidates means that the choices people have are limited, which will benefit conservatives.
It will affect the the results of the elctions for sure.
Name
Editor
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Profession
Question
The session has ended. We would like to thank Dr. Mahjoob Zweiri for taking the time to answer your questions, and all those who participated in the dialogue.
We apologize for not being able to answer all the questions due to time limitation.
