Scholars generally agree on the socio-economic origins of discontent in Muslim societies. Nearly the entire Islamic region is part of the "Third World." An April 1995 World Bank report on the economic outlook in the developing world placed the Middle East behind sub-Saharan Africa. This forecast revealed that economic growth has averaged only 0.9 percent in the Middle East, in contrast to a world average of 3.2 percent. The real GDP per capita fell by 2 percent over the last decade. A fall in oil prices and the cost of two Gulf wars are cited as part of the cause, but low levels in the expansion of world trade is also a factor. World trade grew by 3.9 percent in the last decade; yet in the Middle East the average was only 0.9 percent. The report predicts the Middle East will have among the lowest growth rates in the world during the coming decade.
12
These economic conditions, coupled with high birth rates, lead to widespread impoverishment. Political instability is therefore axiomatic. For example, the number of Moroccans living in poverty has risen from 28 percent to 45 percent in less than a decade.
13 Political Scientist Hrair Dekmejian observes: "Lack of socioeconomic justice combined with official corruption and failure of political elites to mold strong identities through socialization has produced a crisis of legitimacy, where the moral bases of authority are in question."
14
The mounting problems facing Muslim societies require solutions. The post-colonial leadership's credibility is at an all time low. There is widespread disillusionment and outright contempt for the governing elites. John Esposito, author of The Islamic Threat: Myth or Reality?, notes "modernization has not led to the triumph of secular political and economic ideologies. Liberal nationalism, Arab nationalism and socialism, capitalism and Marxism have, in fact, come to be viewed [by Muslims] as the sources of Muslim political and economic failures."
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A return to an Islamic ethos takes shape within this context. Why large numbers of people find a vision for the future in a religiously-based paradigm for development in the age of secular reason baffles many Westerners. It is this bewilderment that prompts the West to view Islamism, a trend defying the notion that separation of church and state is the sine qua non of progress, as a danger to world stability.
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Westerners perplexed by religious re-affirmation tend to overlook or misconstrue the values Muslims hold dear. Hamid Enayat writes "one of the remarkable changes in the Muslim mentality since the Second World War…[has been] an awareness that no political idea, however valid and vital for the freedom and prosperity of Muslims, can mobilize them in a successful movement to cure their ills, unless it is shown to conform in both form and substance to the dictates of their religious consciousness."
17 Murad Saggafi observes:
Islam remains an important force that influences society's norms and values. Even if a secular government came to power, it would find itself ruling a religiously oriented society.... Consequently, we believe that the movement for change will only be effective if it is led by reformists and democratic Islamists. Secularists cannot lead such a movement.
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