|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
Big Earthquake Seen Hitting Istanbul Again Within 30 Years LOS ANGELES (AFP) - A major earthquake is likely to hit Istanbul again within the next 30 years, according to a study released Friday by the US Journal of Science. "An earthquake could happen near Istanbul tomorrow, or in many years," says geophysicist Tom Parsons of the US Geological Survey (USGS), lead author of the Science study. "But, in all likelihood, we have time to reengineer many buildings to better protect the people who live and work there. We hope that our research will prove useful to Turkish leaders and scientists as they evaluate various options," he says. "Major faults near Istanbul are likely late in their earthquake cycles" and Turkey's biggest and rapidly expanding metropolis will likely be slammed by a quake before 2030, writes the team of Turkish, Japanese and US scientists. Although they cannot predict earthquakes but are merely calculating probabilities and comparing their results with the long record of earthquakes near Istanbul, they urge a calm response to their findings. But the two major earthquakes that rocked Turkey last August and November, measuring 7.4 and 7.2 on the Richter scale, respectively, killed some 20,000 people in the Izmit region about 100 kilometers (60 miles) east of Istanbul. The Science study estimates a 62% likelihood of "strong shaking" within the next three decades of a magnitude comparable to the disasters in Izmit. The probability of "strong shaking" occurring within 22 years is about 50%, and within 10 years it is 32%, the study said
Newswires |
