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Future Technology Trends
An International Perspective
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By
Dr. Ahmed Totongi
North Carolina recently organized a conference on science policy to see about the future of technology in their region and how it will influence their region. Dr. Ahmed Totongi was invited to contribute his experience in technology by speaking in a panel discussion on this matter. Although addressing the North Carolinian audience, the views reflect a global perspective on the influence that technology has on the world. Dr. Iqbal Unus assisted in the preparation of this article.
Premise
I share the basic premise of this conference that technology will become an ever more dominant influence in the economy of the future. Technology is a self-propelling and essentially unstoppable endeavor. We can influence its direction by well-conceived and well-planned intervention. Such intervention requires a long-term view and a long-term investment in building or rebuilding an infrastructure that will support the application of science and technology to societal benefit, for North Carolina and for the world at large.
As I began to reflect on possible global input to a discussion of how technology trends may impact on North Carolina's economy thirty years into the future, I was reminded of the story of two shoe salesmen. Their company sent them to an undeveloped part of the world where people lived with very limited resources. One salesman wrote back saying that there was no opportunity to sell shoes there because no one there wore shoes. The other sent an urgent and excited message saying. "Send tons of shoes; no one here has shoes!" The morale of this story is that a positive and optimistic attitude is crucial in examining the state of science and technology in the developing world. The vast majority of people and nations of the world live in conditions that could be and should be improved with wise application of technology, which we take for granted in the developed world. So far, despite a spurt of growth in technology in the industrialized world - some of which, like the cellular phone, is ever-present in the developing world - literacy rates have not risen enough, per capita income has not reach acceptable levels, and there are more people living an unacceptable quality of life. There is much to be done, and much potential to be developed. It is a circumstance that should be looked upon as an opportunity for North Carolina to offer leadership and a helping hand, and to reap the fruits of it.As I began to reflect on possible global input to a discussion of how technology trends may impact on North Carolina's economy thirty years into the future, I was reminded of the story of two shoe salesmen. Their company sent them to an undeveloped part of the world where people lived with very limited resources. One salesman wrote back saying that there was no opportunity to sell shoes there because no one there wore shoes. The other sent an urgent and excited message saying. "Send tons of shoes; no one here has shoes!" The morale of this story is that a positive and optimistic attitude is crucial in examining the state of science and technology in the developing world. The vast majority of people and nations of the world live in conditions that could be and should be improved with wise application of technology, which we take for granted in the developed world. So far, despite a spurt of growth in technology in the industrialized world - some of which, like the cellular phone, is ever-present in the developing world - literacy rates have not risen enough, per capita income has not reach acceptable levels, and there are more people living an unacceptable quality of life. There is much to be done, and much potential to be developed. It is a circumstance that should be looked upon as an opportunity for North Carolina to offer leadership and a helping hand, and to reap the fruits of it.
IIFTIHAR
Before I go further into the topic of this panel, I want to talk briefly about the International Islamic Forum for Science, Technology and Human Resources Development. This organization, known by its acronym IIFTIHAR, could model an international body that may establish common grounds for cooperation with the science and technology establishment in North Carolina.
IIFTIHAR is a non-governmental organization based in Jakarta, Indonesia. The Forum was conceived by representatives of six international organizations based in various countries. It was established at a conference of representatives from some 65 countries. The wide base of the Forum is reflective of the widely recognized role of science and technology in national development. This is especially so in those parts of the world where much work remains to be done, and many challenges are yet to be met, in improving the quality of human life to an acceptable standard.
The Forum emphasizes exchange of experiences, and learning from each other, in the process of developing science and technology. Among developing countries, some are more advanced than others, and this should allow some to learn from others. More specifically, the Forum encourages networking among established centers of excellence in participating countries, recognizing that even in developing countries there are isolated examples of world class work being done in collaboration with recognized institutions in Europe and the United States.
The Forum has established its U.S. office in Northern Virginia under the name of IIFTIHAR-USA. Under the auspices of the U.S. office, a group of accomplished scientists and engineers have met almost every month in this calendar year to ponder and discuss the role and potential of science and technology in the development of the still developing world.
The Forum also recognizes that the development of human resources must proceed alongside the development of scientific and technological capacity. In some situations in the developing world, lack of development may be simply the lack of ability to utilize available capacity to its maximum. By way of illustration, consider the case of the largest fruit juice plant in Chile. Until a couple of years ago, it was producing apple juice only and sitting idle when apples were not in season. A new management was able to maximize its use by diversifying the product line. Now it produces several kinds of fruit juices in all growing seasons. Technology alone was not sufficient. Organizational skills and innovative thinking were essential to maximize the utilization of available resources and achieve superior economic results.
International Input
I commend the foresight of the conference planners in placing a concern
for and consideration of global input within a discussion of the future
of North Carolina. It is manifestation of 'interdependence', as opposed
to independence, that has become a watchword in this age of globalization.
The world has been polarized across boundaries of the 'developed'
and the 'developing,' as the disparity in national development
became more apparent. Advancing economies such as in North
Carolina will do well to seek global input into planning and
strategizing for their future in a shrinking world, where no
country is too far and no economy too remote. North Carolina
should develop links with people living in countries of the South,
which are by and large in various stages of development.
By taking innovative initiatives that raise the scientific
capabilities of developing countries, the North will be able
to open markets for itself. This will need efforts to upgrade
their trading partners' scientific capacities to a certain
level.
Across much of the developing world, the struggle to survive is the
order of the day. Yet their quality of life depends on identifying
the role science and technology will play in their future.
This will determine whether they will become part of the emerging
knowledge-based economy or drown in its backwaters as the new
millennium unfolds. An exercise such as this conference, which aims
at better informing policy makers about future trends in science and
technology, is even more critical for developing countries.
North Carolina could, for example, take into consideration needs
of some of the specific developing countries and help develop
relationships to fulfill these needs for mutual benefit.
North Carolina could help develop infrastructures that
supports North Carolina's trade objectives while enhancing
local capacity to solve local problems.
Science Spending
When I was at King Saud University in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, we organized the first Islamic Solidarity Conference in Science and Technology in 1975 with the specific objective to enhancing a commitment to science and technology in the so-called third world countries. The conference urged participating countries to allocate increased resources to science and technology, and to cooperate with one another in maximizing the results of increased spending. Four years later in 1979, the First World Conference on Science in Vienna approved two specific spending recommendations. One was that developing countries should spend at least 1% of their GDP on science, and the other was that a global science fund should be established to finance the growth of science and technology in the developing world. Recently, the Second World Conference on Science that convened in Budapest in July 1999 again discussed these two specific spending recommendations. The Conference again approved the recommendation that developing countries should spend at least 1% of their GDP on science, as opposed to less than 0.4% that they presently spend. However, the Conference again failed to establish a global science fund to finance the growth of science and technology in the developing world. North Carolina could identify some countries in this group and establish cooperative ventures to help achieve this spending goal, with a view to expanding mutually beneficial relationships in the long term.
Educational Reform
One of the major strategic issues in preparing the developing world to keep pace with the lightning speed at which technology is evolving, is to reform the educational system and, in particular, the teaching of science at the primary, secondary and tertiary levels. The system must educate in the broadest sense of the term, yet it must train to prepare a specialized work force to function successfully in a science and technology environment. It is in the interest of forward looking people to encourage such reform, even if for no other reason than self interest, so that they will not be constrained by national boundaries in selecting their potential workforce or their potential markets. Today in many developing countries, American icons are Coca-Cola, Levi's, and McDonald. Would America of tomorrow be remembered for its Learning Tents and Knowledge Cafes in those same parts of the world? Perhaps North Carolina should take a lead in this transformation of American icons.
Leapfrogging Technology
It is essential to examine all aspect of technological development to systematically "leap frog" wherever practical and possible. While it is essential that developing countries focus on the basics as far as education and research in science is concerned, it is no advantage for them to advance in technology through the same step by step route taken by the developing countries. The most obvious example of this is the telecommunication industry where there will be no point to go via the copper route and fiber optic route to wireless, instead of starting out with wireless telecommunication. This will prepare developing countries to play a meaningful role in scientific and technological advancement, and share the intellectual investment needed for innovation and invention.
Knowledge as Resource / Role of International Organizations
As we near the end of the twentieth century, scientific and technological change is fast in its pace, international in its scope, and knowledge-driven instead of assets-driven in its operation. Development in the twenty-first century will depend ever more on skillful acquisition, adaptation and utilization of knowledge. If knowledge is central to national development, it must be created, transferred and managed. No one country or organization can create all that is needed, or manage it. So this task must be performed by national and international organizations dedicated to development, be they research centers and laboratories, policy forming think tanks, or simply inter-country planning bodies. To move the development process forward, knowledge must be transferred from where it is created or is in abundance, to where it is needed or is in short supply, through, project evaluation, policy research, and adaptation to local circumstances. Organizations like IIFTIHAR can play a significant role in this transfer of knowledge.
Business across Borders
The world business environment is undergoing a major transition with local economies grouping themselves into regional ones and individual businesses going global. In the same vein, forward looking multinational companies no longer follow the traditional step-by-step route from exports to local R&D. They can establish R&D wherever their markets are, aided by the free flow of technical know-how, investment capital and required information across international borders. Such R&D can benefit from alliances and affiliations that bring together partners with mutually beneficial objectives and technical capacities.
However, we must enter into alliances with respect for what others may have to offer and how we could mutually maximize the benefits. Collaboration will work only if in the end it offers advantage to each side. Here the issue of intellectual property rights becomes significant. Other considerations aside, developing economies must have an opportunity to benefit from the fruit of their labor when multinationals from developed economies use indigenous intellectual resources for their R&D programs.
Similar to the well-known brain drain problem is the issue of cultural differences and indigenous knowledge base. The World Conference for Science in Budapest in July this year called for efforts to recognize indigenous forms of knowledge and integrate them into the world store of scientific knowledge. Respect and understanding for other cultures can actually help developed economies like North Carolina utilize cultural differences to their advantage in trade and commerce.
Conventional business wisdom may call for a worldwide search for good and cheap labor to promote industry and trade. Insightful and forward looking thinking will, however, call for a search for good minds instead. North Carolina's strategy for maintaining competitiveness in the knowledge-based economy of 2030 should include a long-term commitment to enhancing education in science and technology. North Carolina has a strategic advantage in this respect with the presence of world-renowned universities right here around us.
Role of Knowledge in Development: World Bank Conclusions
The World Bank titled its 1998-99 World Development Report "Knowledge for Development," stating that poor countries differ from rich ones "not only because they have less capital but also because they have less knowledge. Knowledge is often costly to create, and that is why much of it is created in industrial countries." The Report suggests that we look at development from a new perspective, that of "knowledge gaps," which hinder development.
Before I conclude my remarks, let me share with you some conclusions that the 1998-99 World Development Report of the World Bank arrives at when considering the role of knowledge in development.
"First, narrowing the gap in know-how that separates poor countries from rich - and poor people from non-poor - can increase economic growth in developing countries, raise incomes, reduce environmental degradation, and gradually improve the quality of life, especially for the poor."
"Second, addressing information problems - such as a banker's lack of knowledge about a poor borrower's creditworthiness - can improve the functioning of market and non-market institutions, making it easier for people to partake in the economy."
"Thirdly, policies work best when they are based on the recognition that knowledge is not freely available to all, and many markets that matter most to our well-being are far from perfect."
Inherent in the above conclusions is the idea that, to maintain its competitiveness in the emerging economy, North Carolina must share in the identification and removal of knowledge gaps in parts of the world it shares. Indeed, knowledge gaps prevent the evolution of a dynamic and broad-based global economy in the interdependent world that awaits us across the threshold of this millennium. This we should seek to
change 
www.iiftihar-usa.org
helix.nature.com/wcs/
www.worldbank.org/prospects/gep98-99
www.governor.state.nc.us/govoffice/science/projects/nc2030.html
iisd.ca/
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