KUALA LUMPUR, Nov 28 (Islam-Online) - Malaysians go to the polls on Monday with both the ruling National Front (NF) coalition and the opposition Alternative Front (AF) confident of doing well in the elections - although each has its own definition of "doing well."
The NF of Mahathir Mohamad, the aging prime minister, is expected to retain power but analysts says it may lose its overwhelming two-thirds majority in the most hotly contested - and nastiest - general election in three decades.
The four-party opposition coalition is optimistic that it could break the ruling party's two-thirds majority, which has lasted since 1974. Some leaders of the Party Islam Se-Malaysia (PAS) were upbeat about the opposition winning enough seats to form the next government, even though its other partners in the united opposition coalition felt that the most they could hope for is denying Mahathir a two-thirds majority.
The AF had been given last-minutes boosts by non-Muslim organizations that refused to endorse a blanket vote for the ruling party, choosing neutrality instead.
The Chinese- and English-language newspapers also broke from a long tradition of refusing to publish the opposition's elections ads. This year, the AF's advertisement was published on a full page and unedited.
These elections have been termed the dirtiest ever in Malaysian history. Both sides have been accusing each other of mudslinging and airing dirty laundry in public.
A large number of Malaysian voters felt disgusted with the doctored advertisements on television, which hit directly at Anwar Ibrahim and his wife Wan Azizah Wan Ismail.
The ruling party and its predecessor, the Alliance, have won all nine elections since independence from Britain in 1957. And in each of the six general elections since 1974, the ruling party has secured more than a two-thirds majority.
The Alliance failed only once, in 1969, to muster a two-thirds majority. The loss triggered race riots against ethnic Chinese on May 13th of that year. Local political analysts expected the ruling party to win the 10th general election this Monday, but they added that it was the toughest for the ruling coalition. However, they were unsure if the ruling party would be able to maintain its more than two-thirds majority margin.
The Malays are divided on the Anwar Ibrahim issue, who was fired and remains in prison after serving as deputy prime minister under Mahathir.
At stake in these elections are 193 parliamentary and 393 state seats. The ruling party won one parliamentary and one state seat uncontested on nomination day.
In the 1995 general election, the 14-party multi-ethnic NF coalition won a record four-fifths majority. At that time, like this, the NF could rely on an economic boom to get votes. But this time they do not have the popular Anwar Ibrahim on their side.
Anwar was sacked as deputy prime minister on Sept 2, 1998, and was expelled from the ruling party a day later on moral grounds. He is currently serving a 6-year sentence for corruption. The opposition and a large section of the public feels that the case against Anwar is politically motivated and the politician did not have a fair trial.
Prime Minister and NF Chairman Datuk Seri Dr Mahathir Mohamad is optimistic. "We will obtain more than a two-thirds majority because this time we have voters who were previously non-committed...the silent majority, now they are taking interest," he said in Terengganu, a state which might just be whisked away in the hands of the Islamic opposition on Monday.
Mahathir said while the non-Malays were concerned over PAS's proposal to set up an Islamic state, Malays were equally concerned with the Democratic Action Party (DAP) of Lim Kit Siang seeking to abolish the privileges of the Malays. PAS and DAP are coalition partners in the AF.
Wan Azizah Wan Ismail, wife of Anwar Ibrahim, had launched a house-to-house campaign that caused panic in the ranks of the ruling party. The mother of four was attacked severely. But she exhibited grace under fire. Regarding the problems that the opposition coalition had brought, she said: "There is unity. We know our differences. We entered into this working relationship knowing our differences," said Azizah.
Dr Wan Azizah, who will be defending her husband's Permatang Pauh parliament seat, would not speculate on her chances of winning. "I think it is too premature to say anything," she said.
The opposition has been drawing large crowds during this short campaign. Fadzil Noor, a 63-year-old former university lecturer and PAS leader said the Alternative Front had a "strong chance" to deny the National Front its two-thirds parliamentary majority and "maybe even to form the new government."
"If Malaysians are concerned over the abuse of human rights and the misuse of the country's financial resources, then Mahathir is in for serious trouble," a professor from the International Islamic University (IIU) told Islam-Online. "But if the people are thinking in terms of having a car and a house, the rest is history. Then the ruling coalition should win hands down."
On his part, Anwar Ibrahim has called on the Muslims, Chinese and Indians to vote for change and let Malaysia enter the next millennium with new faces, "people who have faith and who are afraid of the Almighty.
Malaysian Elections - At a Glance
Malaysia goes to the polls Monday to elect a new parliament and assemblies in 11 out of the 13 states. A summary of the facts:
Number of eligible voters: 9,564,071
Number of polling centers: 17,722
Seats to be contested: 193 parliamentary constituencies and 394 state assembly seats. All the state seats up for grabs are in peninsular Malaysia. The Sabah and Sarawak state elections are held separately.
Two seats, Betong parliamentary constituency in Sarawak and Tangkak state seat in Johor, went unopposed.
A party must win 97 parliamentary seats to secure a simple majority and the two-thirds majority, which the National Front seeks, is 129 seats.
Number of parties: 10.
The 14-party ruling National Front is contesting as one coalition.
Four parties form the opposition Alternative Front: the Democratic Action Party, the Parti Islam SeMalaysia, the National Justice Party and the Malaysian People's Party.
Others: Malaysia Democratic Party, Angkatan Keadilan Insan Malaysia, Barisan Jamaah Islamiyah Malaysia, State Reform Party (a Sarawak-based opposition party), Parti Bersatu Sabah (Sabah-based opposition party).
Plus one independent.
Number of candidates: 429 candidates to contest parliament seats and 812 candidates for state assembly seats.
Voting hours: 8 am (midnight GMT) to 5.30 pm in peninsular Malaysia, 7.30 am to 5pm in Sabah and Sarawak.
Previous general election: In 1995, the National Front won a four-fifths majority or 162 seats and the opposition captured 30 seats.
At the time of parliament's dissolution on November 11, the National Front had 166 seats following defections and the combined opposition had 22, with three independents and one seat vacant.
