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By Simon Martin
KUALA LUMPUR, May 7 (AFP)-After a bruising couple of years, Malaysia's veteran Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad - the great survivor of Asian politics - appears firmly back in control as his ruling party meets this week. His ambitious former deputy Anwar Ibrahim is still behind bars, the economy has rebounded impressively from the Asian crisis, and Mahathir last November pulled off another convincing election victory. But analysts say Mahathir's personal triumph masks problems in his United Malays National Organization (UMNO), whose four-day general assembly includes leadership elections Thursday. Mahathir and his current preferred successor, Deputy Premier Abdullah Ahmad Badawi, cannot be challenged for the UMNO presidency and deputy presidency after being nominated virtually unopposed. Holders of the top two posts in the party, which has dominated politics for half a century, are automatically prime minister and deputy premier. But Mahathir, aged 74 and in power since 1981, has said this will be his last term as premier. Abdullah's confirmation as Deputy President will shore up his status as heir apparent. Interest will also focus on the race among nine candidates for three vice-presidency posts. "On the other hand there is a feeling this meeting is a non-event," said Michael Leifer, Director of the Asia Research Center at the London School of Economics. "But it has considerable importance for the future - whoever becomes the senior vice-president could become the next deputy premier." Defense Minister Najib Razak finished way ahead in terms of nominations, but these may not necessarily translate into votes. Leifer said the assembly could be seen as a personal triumph for Mahathir, but added that problems "had been swept under the carpet." "There is tremendous alienation among Malays, especially people under 40." One diplomat said UMNO was "plagued by tensions" between supporters and opponents of change. The sacking and jailing of the charismatic Anwar split the ethnic Malay vote last November. The National Front Coalition kept its two-thirds parliamentary majority, partly thanks to the Chinese and Indian minorities. But its largest component UMNO lost 22 seats and ceded control of a second state assembly to the Parti Islam SeMalaysia (PAS). PAS also tripled its parliamentary seats to 27, challenging UMNO's credentials as the natural party of the country's Malay majority. "It is up to UMNO leaders and members to reflect on whether they want to continue leading the Malays," said a commentary in Saturday's New Straits Times. "It would be difficult to expect the Malays to be convinced that it is the ultimate vehicle for the community's political survival if UMNO members themselves refused to be convincing." The commentary urged the 2,018 delegates to "get their act together" and search their souls on the future of the party founded in 1946. Publicly, at least, Mahathir refuses to acknowledge the need for change. He has blamed PAS "lies", ungrateful Malays and party infighting for UMNO's election setback. But he has spearheaded a campaign against "money politics" vote buying at the assembly to allay fears that the party has become corrupt and dominated by fat cats. Bruce Gale, of the Political and Economic Risk Consultancy, said Mahathir seemed sincere in this campaign but added: "Politics and economics are so intertwined in Malaysia that there will be an enormous temptation for people to try to buy their way into power." "The mood of delegates will be for renewal," one of them said. "At the lower level there is a perception that we have too many yes-men in the Supreme Council," he said, predicting "quite a number of new faces" following elections for the top party body. "UMNO members will not wash their dirty linen in public - it is not the Malay way. But the changes that we may see in the leadership this time will be a message to the top leaders." The diplomat said that after Abdullah's confirmation as Deputy President, "he looks set to be Mahathir's successor." But no one is certain when Malaysia will enter the post-Mahathir era and who will fill his shoes. Khalil Yaacob, party Secretary-General, said his personal view was that the premier would still be in charge for the next leadership elections in 2003. Gale pointed out that Mahathir, now on his fourth deputy premier, "has not got a good track record with his deputies." His relations with Abdullah in three years' time are anyone's guess. |
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