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Afghanistan
on the Road to Nowhere
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ISAF
activities are limited to the relative safety of Kabul
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Speaking
during the US-led invasion of Afghanistan, British Prime Minister
Tony Blair promised the world that "this time we will not walk
away." While the United States and Great Britain have not yet
walked away from Afghanistan, they have embarked on a path that
leads to nowhere.
This
path to nowhere is one where the international community, especially
the United States, does not take adequate steps to provide the
necessary amount of aid and assistance that will help stabilize
Afghanistan and lead the country onto the path of recovery.
The
danger in not providing sufficient aid and assistance was outlined
by United Nations Secretary General Kofi Annan, who warned during
the start of 2004, "Critical challenges now face the [peace]
process, and Afghanistan and the international community will need
to take further steps, expeditiously, if the process is to be
successfully concluded."
The
most critical aspect of the peace process that Annan was speaking of
was the national elections that were scheduled to take place in
June. However, due to instability and the threat of violence that
continues to hang over the country, the elections were postponed
until at least the end of September.
The
fact that Afghanistan is still so far away from stability means that
the international community simply has not done enough to guide this
troubled country onto the road of recovery. For one, there are not
enough international troops providing security. The International
Security and Assistance Force (ISAF) only provides security in the
capital of Kabul and does not have the mandate or the resources to
expand outward. Outside of Kabul, US forces are stationed in various
military bases, yet they mostly conduct quick search and destroy
missions and have shown no interest in seriously policing the
country.
Indeed,
the lack of interest in policing Afghanistan has meant that the
United States has looked the other way while various warlords abuse
their power in several areas outside of Kabul. These warlords and
their militias have been doing the police work in their respective
territories, often in a brutal fashion. The central government in
Kabul has tried to disarm them, yet its demands largely fall on deaf
ears, since there is no real way of controlling those warlords
strong enough to resist central rule.
The
United States looks the other way while warlords abuse their power
outside of Kabul. |
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Kabul's
efforts to disarm these warlords, known as the Disarmament,
Demobilization and Reintegration program, are well behind schedule.
Less than 10,000 fighters have been disarmed and reintegrated since
the program started last November; yet the goal is 40,000 disarmed
and reintegrated by the end of June.
In
cases where disarmament has successfully taken place, it has been
with the weaker warlords, such as Mohammed Musa Hotak, a commander
and Islamic cleric who partly watches over Wardak province, south of
Kabul. Hotak recently turned in his weapons and demobilized some 100
fighters under his command. Yet Hotak had little choice, since the
forces under his command were not very powerful and because
Wardak’s proximity to Kabul places it both under the spotlight and
within the reach of government security forces.
The
lack of progress in Afghanistan has not gone unnoticed by those most
intricately involved. Jean Arnault, the UN special envoy to
Afghanistan, recently told the AFP news service that it "is
completely clear that the progress which has been made so far is
insufficient." Arnault continued, outlining the dangers of
failing to hold national elections in the country: "For
Afghans, as for the international community, there is nothing that
has greater priority… than fair and steady demilitarization ahead
of the elections." Unless these conditions are met,
Arnault advised, "we will not have peace" and will instead
face "the return of civil war caused by factional armies."
The
dangers involved in post-war Afghanistan are clear: without a major
increase in international assistance, the country will likely remain
unstable and could very easily fall into general anarchy with
various warlords vying for power. It is up to the United States,
with the help of the rest of the international community, to provide
Afghanistan with the attention and resources it needs to place it
upon the path of recovery. Unfortunately, with so much attention and
resources currently focused on the ongoing reconstruction of Iraq,
Afghanistan's prospects look grim.
Erich
Marquardt is an analyst with the Power and Interest News
Report, located on the web at http://www.pinr.com.
He can be reached at content@pinr.com.
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