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The Republic of Kings
By Sahar Kassaimah
06/08/2001
Amid rumors of the Iraqi President's poor health, Saddam Hussein's sons, Udai, the elder, and Qusai, the younger, are in a power struggle for the succession of Saddam's mantle, causing a situation of political unrest in the country already suffering from the consequences of the 1991 Gulf War. Iraq is bankrupt, its economy shattered by eleven years of economic sanctions imposed by the United Nations following the invasion of Kuwait.
Although questions related to Saddam's health surfaced back in 1996, it is difficult to determine the state of his health now because of an Iraqi government blackout on the issue and a media freeze on the story. However, the Arab daily, the London-based Al Sharq al-Awsat, reported a story concerning Hussein's health along with additional information from an anonymous Iraqi doctor confirming that Hussein suffers from lymphatic cancer.
One may ask: Since the country is a republic, why should one of Hussein's sons succeed him? And what about elections and the volition of the Iraqi people? But, such questions do not exist in countries like Iraq, where a dictator like Saddam, feared by his own people, dominates the country with an iron stick. In Iraq, no one can oppose the leader or express different opinions, and Saddam's opponents have not been able to survive in the country. So, how could Iraqis nominate anyone else other than Saddam's appointment? There is no doubt that Iraqi elections, which are neither free nor fair, are controlled by Saddam and his regime. In the meantime, to be a candidate in Iraq, one must be either a member of Saddam's Baath party, or any other one of the few parties that exist solely because they have pledged loyalty to Saddam's regime.
But, Saddam is not alone in the tendency to appoint successors to the supposed republican regimes; former Syrian president, Hafez al-Assad, was the first to introduce the presidency heritage among Arab republican countries, encouraging other presidents to follow him and driving some people to call these countries the kingdom of republicans, or the republic of kings.
Currently in Iraq, many people ask whether the challenge for power between Saddam's sons could cause more trouble and suffering for the country and its people, while others who have conceded that one of the sons will eventually take over, debate over which one will succeed.
It is too early to confirm, but predictions and foresight indicate that Qusai, the younger, is more likely to be Saddam's apparent heir. However, Udai was Saddam's favorite son and was long seen as an heir apparent to his father.
After Udai was exposed to an assassination attempt in 1996, causing him to become partially paralyzed, matters changed and Udai started to be replaced by Qusai, who had started to appear more publicly in the power picture.
Analysts say that Saddam would want the one whom he places in power to have the strength to protect him from his enemies.
Presently, it has become very clear that Saddam has increased preparations for Qusai to be his successor, giving him the position of Deputy commander of the Iraqi army, as well as head of the elite Republican Guards and the special security agency.
This new appointment appears to add more credibility to what previously may have been just rumors. On August 3rd, the
Al-Sharq al-Awsat newspaper, quoted "informed Iraqi sources in Jordan as saying that Saddam's younger son, Qusai Hussein, would assume control of the government in the event of an emergency. In addition, the paper reported Qusai's responsibilities were to be extended to include security in Baghdad as well as overseeing the army, the Republican Guard, and the intelligence services." There was no official denial of the report except from the newspaper run by Udai.
In the meantime, in an attempt to avoid and contain Udai's anger, Saddam handed him a potentially powerful position in the government. Last year, the Iraqi national parliamentary elections, controlled tightly by Saddam and his regime, resulted in Udai winning a parliamentary seat with 99.99% of the vote. In the meantime, Saddam ensured that his eldest son would not have the potential to pose a challenge to his younger brother through his position in the parliament.
Nevertheless, it appears that Udai, who feels that winning a seat in Iraq's weak parliament is not his goal, is seeking more power. He did not accept the limited power given to him by his father, who prevented him from being speaker of Iraq's National Assembly, as well as from attending an important conference in Amman.
By pitting the two brothers against each other, the move has intensified the ongoing power struggle between Udai and Qusai. Udai, known as a "trouble maker," and who was once jailed for shooting his uncle in the leg after a disagreement, does not mind challenging his younger brother, whom he feels usurped his right to power. But, could he also challenge his father and oblige him to give more than he is planning to? That is unlikely.
Saddam, who has a history of killing his own family members, would not mind killing his own son if he does not find another way to control him.
Last week, Britain's Guardian reported that Udai converted to Shiite Islam. The story showed the event as the last bullet Udai fired in his challenge against Qusai. However, two days later, Udai denied the report, confirming that he remains a Sunni Muslim.
But, it is not too far-fetched for someone like Udai to think about such a move. Not because of
aqida (religious belief), but because such a move will help him gain more power and support when challenging Qusai, who is also not willing to give up his chance for power and authority.
Udai knows that the Shiite account for more than 60% of Iraq's population, so why shouldn't he play this last card? Why doesn't he challenge his younger brother, who does not have a good reputation with the Shiite population because of past cruel actions against them? Why doesn't he broaden the disagreement between him and his brother to include all the Iraqi people? Why doesn't he involve both Shiite and Sunni Muslims in the challenge and put them inside the circle together?
Regardless, it seems that Udai, who seems as if he will not accept being marginalized, still feels that he deserves to be Iraq's next dictator/leader, or at least to take a bigger role in the government than what Saddam is willing to give. Therefore, it seems that he has chosen to escalate the situation and challenge his father's choice.
There is no doubt that if both sons utilize their strengths, it may result in weakening the security of a country already suffering from the consequences of the Gulf War and economic sanctions. But, it seems that neither Udai, nor Qusai, care much about how much this challenge will cost the country or its people.
Only time will tell how the conflict will end and whether Saddam, who will never allow anyone to challenge him personally, will succeed in controlling his eldest son, who has become too dangerous now even for Saddam's own personal security.
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