Reaction of common Iraqis likely to draw U.S. final move

WASHINGTON, April 4 (IslamOnline.net & News Agencies) – Considering the possibility of failing to control the Iraqi capital due to fierce popular  resistance, the U.S. administration plans to declare victory in Iraq in due course, whether or not Saddam Hussein and his lieutenants have capitulated, according to press reports Friday, April 4, citing U.S. officials.

"The objective is not necessarily to take buildings or occupy areas," one senior military officer involved in planning for the war's conclusion told the Washington Post. "It's the people. It's getting them to accept the fact that the regime is gone. That's the essence of the thing."

And the "rolling" victory theory will come at some yet unspecified moment in the future when U.S. forces are in control of "significant territory and have eliminated a critical mass of Iraqi resistance," the Post said.

As the U.S. forces closed in on the west and east of the capital Thursday, defense officials discussed following an "opportunistic" strategy of probing and testing the capital's defenses to gauge the mood of the population and the likely intensity of resistance.

Under that approach, armored reconnaissance missions, Special Operations actions and precision bombing would be used across the city as ground force commanders consider their options. Those range from pushing aggressively into the city along key roads to establishing a cordon along its perimeter and waiting for reinforcements to arrive, defense officials and analysts told the paper.

U.S. officials do not foresee a surrender similar to Germany's to the Allies at Reims that concluded World War II.

"Rather, they hope to recognize a moment when the military and political balance tilt decisively away from (Iraqi President Saddam) Hussein's Baath Party government," the unnamed senior military officer told the daily.

Isolating and besieging Baghdad is not unlikely option

However, while the U.S. administration intends to intimidate Iraqi leaders and seize power, it risks credibility by declaring itself in charge while significant resistance remains, the article adds.

General Richard Myers, Chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, on Thursday stated that the Iraqi capital would not have to be under U.S. control in order for the United States to set up a new interim administration.

While there is a clear political imperative to assume control of the city and remove Hussein's government as quickly as possible, there is no tactical military need to do so, military officials said. The one option U.S. commanders will not take, one retired general said, is a broad assault that could cause significant civilian casualties and losses among U.S. forces.

"You're going to have Baghdad isolated," Myers told reporters at the Pentagon. "You're going to have half the population that probably wants nothing to do with the regime. And then you'll start working at it as you can."

Indicating that a major U.S. assault is not imminent, Myers added that "one of the things you can do is be patient about that." At the same time, he said, the "notion of a siege . . . is not the right mental picture."

The two unknowns in the capital are the degree of resistance and the mood of the residents, according to the Post.

Iraqi forces are to put on a tough fight defending the capital

After coming under fierce U.S. attack south of the capital, Republican Guard troops were reportedly falling back into Baghdad, although it was not clear whether they were quitting the fight or regrouping.

Even if those units have been degraded by 50 percent, as U.S. defense officials claim, that could still leave 30,000 to 40,000 Iraqi soldiers and some armor inside the capital. Backing them up are 15,000 troops from the Special Republican Guard, Hussein's Praetorian guard, established to protect Baghdad and the president, as well as 3,000 members of the Special Security Organization, the Iraqi leader's bodyguard force.

Kenneth M. Pollack, a former CIA analyst and now director of research at the Brookings Institution's Saban Center for Middle East Policy, sounded a note of caution, questioning the Pentagon's assessment that the Iraqi government's ability to communicate with and control its military forces has been badly compromised.

"There's nothing that I'm seeing in terms of the broad movement of Iraqi forces that indicates to me there's been a significant degradation of their command and control," he said. "In point of fact, the moves they're making are smart moves. They're just making them very slowly."

But even more important to U.S. commanders will be how the population acts. If Baghdad residents aid Hussein's fighters and provide supporting gunfire, the United States will face a long and bloody struggle. "If you have the people en masse fighting against you, in a city saturated with small arms, then you have a real problem," said retired Army Col. W. Patrick Lang, an expert on the Iraqi military.