Blair is facing his toughest political battle over support to Iraq war

LONDON, February 19 (IslamOnline.net & News Agencies) – British Prime Minister Tony Blair is facing his toughest political battle since taking office over growing opposition to his support for President Bush George Bush and the looming U.S.-led war on Iraq, according to analysts and opinion polls.

Blair tried to dispel fears over Iraq war by denying that it would destabilize the Middle East or unleash "more Bin Ladens".

Blair, America's staunchest international supporter, has been hit by a series of setbacks in recent days, starting with an equivocal report by chief U.N. weapons inspector Hans Blix to the Security Council Friday, followed by unprecedented mass demonstration opposing war, reported the Washington Post reported on Wednesday, February 19.

On Tuesday, February 18, a new opinion poll showed Blair at his lowest approval rating.

At his monthly Downing Street press conference, Blair conceded he had failed to communicate effectively his case against Iraq, but claimed opinion could be won round.

Blair and his aides are disturbed that despite a month-long blitz of public appearances in which he has sought to make the case against Iraq, opposition to military action is increasing.

Blair's opponents within his ruling Labor Party are increasingly emboldened and for the first time talking openly of seeking to replace Blair if he takes Britain into war without a second Security Council resolution authorizing force.

"This is crunch time for Tony Blair," Washington Post quoted Alan Simpson, a leader of Labor's anti-war faction in the House of Commons, as saying.

"He can lead the war party or the Labor Party, but he can't lead both. It's quite clear if he goes off to war, he will have left the party behind him."

Faced with such resentment at home, Blair is pressing the Bush administration to return to the Security Council for another resolution before launching an attack.

"I still believe that we should have a second resolution. I still think there is a lot of debate to go on before we get to the point of decision in the U.N.," Blair said in a press conference Tuesday.

"He can lead the war party or the Labor Party, but he can't lead both. It's quite clear if he goes off to war, he will have left the party behind him," said Simpson

Adopting a markedly emollient tone, Blair promised he would listen to marchers' concerns and acknowledged the depth of political opposition and pleaded with Britons to give him a fair hearing, according to the Independent.

"Look, I don't pretend to have a monopoly of wisdom in these issues, or that I always know what's right and everybody else is wrong. I totally understand why people march and oppose what we're doing. I just ask people to listen to the other side of the argument."

"There is no rush to war," said Blair.

He countered suggestions that military action would trigger a wider regional conflict and breed more terrorism against the UK, the Independent wrote.

"I don't believe that those fears are justified," he said.

"If I thought we were going to unleash something in which hundreds of thousands of people were going to die and we would have more Bin Ladens and the Middle East was going to go up in flames ... of course I don't think that."

Analysts say Blair's campaign to win support has faltered for a variety of reasons, beginning with a high level of public concern and alarm over the Bush administration and the use of U.S. power.

A poll last month reported that 74 percent of Britons surveyed had "not much" confidence or "none at all" in Bush.

Blair generally has stopped mentioning Bush's name in his speeches, although he spoke about Bush Tuesday in defense of Britain's position.

Blair has failed to persuade the British public that the Iraqi government is a direct and imminent threat to Britain, nor has he connected the campaign against Iraq with the war on terrorism, analysts added.

He is also suffering from a high level of public mistrust.

The government's release two weeks ago of what was billed as an intelligence dossier on Iraq turned out to be largely copied from a graduate student's report, and it damaged Blair's credibility.

"It's his hardest moment," said Michael White, political editor of the Guardian newspaper.

"He's running against public opinion. A lot of people who don't like him anyway are out to get him, and a lot of people who do like him simply aren't persuaded."

Blair insists he can still talk people into supporting him -- even many of those who marched against him Saturday, February 15.

"A lot of people out there I would put in the unconvinced category rather than the never-be-convinced category," he claimed.

Blair has "gone out very far on a limb, and if there's a failure -- and it can be failure as defined in many different ways -- then he's got a serious problem," said Roberts.