By IOL South Asia Correspondent

NEW DELHI, January 30 (IslamOnline) — U.S. President George Bush’s latest State of the Union address, delivered Wednesday, January 29, convinced India that a U.S. attack on Iraq is imminent despite worldwide opposition which prompted New Delhi to prepare contingency plans to cope with fuel shortfalls in the event of such a war.

The concern in India is understandable because 68 percent of its oil supplies comes from the Gulf region.

Of the 78.64 million tones of crude oil imported in the last financial year, 53.43 million tones came from this region.

Kuwait, which supplied 12 million tones of oil to India between 2001 and 2002 is reported to have assured India of safe oil delivery by flying U.S. flags on its oil tankers.

The ministry of petroleum, based on its experience of the 1991 Gulf War, has prepared two scenarios of oil supplies disruption.

In the first scenario, which considers the fallout from a war limited to Iraq only, supplies of crude oil to India may not get disrupted too seriously.

However, the second scenario sees the conflict spreading to the larger Gulf region and seriously disrupting imports.

In the second case, the superpowers and the entire world community are expected to move swiftly to secure the flow of supplies.

To prepare for the second scenario, Indian refineries have been asked to explore alternative crude oil imports, including spot purchases from regions outside the Gulf.

It also involves buying crude oil from Egypt, Yemen, Nigeria, Malaysia, Norway, Venezuela, Oman and Australia until the crisis is over.

Indian public sector undertakings (PSUs) and private firms will be asked to maximize crude and gas output.

India also may resort to imports and float 15 days of oil inventory by hiring super tankers.

Oil Minister Ram Naik assured the country that oil companies have stored over 40 days petroleum products supplies and 15 days of crude oil supplies to meet contingencies arising out of the war.

Besides, imports from Iraq constitute a small part of the total import of oil.

“We import only 1.4 million tones of crude oil from Iraq, and in the event of a war only these supplies will be affected,” Naik said Tuesday, January 28.

During the 1991 Gulf War, Saudi Arabia and Iran jacked up oil production to meet shortfalls.

Earlier this week Iranian President Mohammad Khatami assured India that Iran would increase oil supply to India in case of war and subsequent shortfall in supplies.

Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee on Tuesday asked Bush to exercise "maximum restraint".

Knowing that the U.S. president may not be amenable to Vajpayee’s advice, Foreign Minister Yashwant Sinha told Indian envoys to the Gulf region to assure the sizeable Indian community that in the event of war India would safeguard their interests.

Sinha had a meeting in Abu Dhabi Tuesday with the Indian ambassadors in Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Jordan, Syria, Turkey, Bahrain, Qatar and UAE to discuss the latest developments.

Sinha called the meeting on his way to Tajikistan and Kyrghyzstan in Central Asia.

The foreign minister is reported to have discussed plans to evacuate Indian nationals in case of an emergency.

Indian Opposition Stand Against War

Indian activists demonstrate against possible war against Iraq

"We look forward to this world body for resolution of this crisis and hope this problem is solved through peaceful means," she said.