"There is a very acute humanitarian situation evolving there (in North Korea),” Strong

SEOUL, January 14 (IslamOnline & News Agencies) –Washington appears to be shifting its stand on North Korea amid criticism of its failure to engage the Stalinist regime over its nuclear weapons drive, as an envoy sent by UN Secretary General Kofi Annan warned Tuesday, January 14, of a looming humanitarian crisis in famine-hit North Korea.

"There is a very acute humanitarian situation evolving there and we want to find out from the DPRK (North Korea) how they think we can best help to avoid a humanitarian crisis," Maurice Strong said in Beijing before boarding a flight to Pyongyang, reported Agence France-Presse (AFP).

North Korea has relied heavily on outside donations to feed its 23-million population over the past seven years because of a failed centralized economic policy and a series of natural disasters.

Strong said Tuesday the food shortage could result in a "significant crisis" in the coming months if donations were not made soon.

"It could get worse because the pipeline is drying up and unless new humanitarian supplies start to move quickly, there could be a significant crisis in March or April and we are seeking to consult with our DPRK friends on how we might help them to avoid such a situation," he told reporters.

The UN World Food Program's (WFP) spokesman in Beijing, Gerald Bourke, on Tuesday attributed the downturn in donations to competing demands from other countries, such as Afghanistan, but said individual issues donor countries have with Pyongyang were also a key factor.

Japan, which had donated more than half of the food WFP distributed to North Koreans in 2001, gave nothing last year, stating it would give no more food until bilateral relations had normalized.

The United States, which has been one of the three top donors, gave only 155,000 tons of food last year, compared with 340,000 tons in 2001.

The United Nations' World Food Program (WFP), which has been providing food to the most vulnerable North Koreans, was in the autumn forced to cut off aid to three million of the 6.4 million people it was feeding because of a significant reduction in donations from donor countries.

There are fears that donations will further dwindle in the coming months as North Korea receives U.S.-led global condemnation over its decision last month to restart a nuclear program and recent moves to withdraw from the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and kick out international nuclear monitors.

“U.S. Backs Down”: Analysts

However, analysts suggest furious efforts coordinated by Pyongyang and conducted by North Korean diplomats in Asia, Europe, the United Nations and the United States over the past few days may have finally forced Washington to blink in the three-month crisis.

"I think every indication points to progress in efforts to engage in dialogue," said North Korean expert Lee Woo-Young of the state-financed Korea Institute for National Unification, according to AFP.

U.S. special envoy James Kelly suggested Monday at the start of a five-nation Asian tour that the United States and other nations were ready to ease Pyongyang's energy crisis if the North scrapped its nuclear weapons drive.

Though Washington denied its hard line stance was wavering, analysts detected a change in tone, if nothing more.

"Through Kelly's visit, the United States has toned down its position a little bit," said Kim Sung-Han of Seoul's Institute for Foreign Affairs and National Security.

"Previously Washington said North Korea must first dismantle its nuclear weapons programs, and only then could it hope for dialogue. Now Washington says Pyongyang only has to say that it will dismantle its programs then it will get negotiations."

In October, Kelly said North Korea, which in 1994 promised to freeze its nuclear weapons ambitions, had been secretly engaged in a plan to enrich uranium for nuclear weapons. A charge denied two days ago by North Korea.

The charge sparked a standoff that has left in tatters the 1994 Agreed Framework providing international aid to North Korea in return for the nuclear freeze.

North Korea ratcheted up the tension by firing off verbal broadsides at the United States while expelling UN nuclear monitors and withdrawing from the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).

Pyongyang has also said it may end a moratorium on long-range missile tests while preparing to reactivate its mothballed Yongbyon nuclear plant 60 kilometers (40 miles) north of the capital.

For most experts, the flurry of hostile acts amount to a desperate bid by North Korea to seize a shrinking window of opportunity for dialogue with the United States before Washington becomes too engrossed in plans for a possible military strike on Iraq.

"The North has always been seeking to have dialogue with the U.S.," said Lee, citing the regime's desperate need for international help to prop up its crippled economy and feed its starving people.

"It seems that North Korea has taken all possible steps that it could have thought of so far. It may take further actions such as the reactivation of the radiochemical laboratory in Yongbyon (suspected of reprocessing spent fuel rods).

"But in any case, it is unlikely that the North breaches its moratorium on test-firing missiles which would anger Japan the most."

Kim, however, argued North Korea would have to back away from its main demand from Washington - a non-aggression pact.

"There is no possibility that Washington would sign such a pact with North Korea," he said, as it would add urgency and logic to demands for the withdrawal of 37,000 U.S. troops from South Korea.

Pyongyang has repeatedly accused Washington of planning a preemptive nuclear strike against it and has demanded the non-aggression pact before it will discuss scrapping its latest nuclear drive.

But Pyongyang, aware it is asking too much, may settle for something less, Kim said, possibly a signed letter from President George W. Bush.

"If North Korea and the United States can agree on that, things will change dramatically," he said, predicting resumed negotiations and eventual resolution of the nuclear crisis.