LONDON, December 23 (IslamOnline & News Agencies) - The United Nations is making secret contingency plans for a war that would halt all Iraqi oil production, “seriously degrade” the country’s electricity system, provoke civil unrest and create 900,000 refugees, a leading British daily reported Monday, December 24.

Kofi Annan, the U.N. Secretary-General, is trying to keep the preparations secret for fear of 'signaling' to Iraq that weapons inspections are futile and a U.S.-led attack is inevitable, The Times said in an article entitled "U.N. chief issues secret orders for war in Iraq."

But he ordered staff to begin contingency planning last month after the Security Council set tough terms for resumed inspections in Iraq. His Canadian deputy, Louise Fréchette, is chairing regular meetings of officials to prepare for a possible humanitarian crisis, the paper added.

Internal U.N. documents predict that the worst fighting will be in the three central governorates around Baghdad, with the Kurdish-controlled north remaining largely free of conflict, The Times said.

But it will take a month after war breaks out before the predominantly Shia south is calm enough for U.N. humanitarian workers to work there, it added.

Although formally expressing the hope that war can be averted, U.N. relief agencies, according to the paper, are already positioning emergency supplies and updating evacuation procedures for the hundreds of international staff now inside Iraq.

“The U.N. expects that there will be full compliance by Iraq … and that, consequently, there will be no new humanitarian crisis,” one document says. “Nevertheless, U.N. agencies must ensure that they are adequately prepared for the full range of possible scenarios.”

Civil Unrest and Humanitarian Crisis in Iraq

The Times added that "confidential U.N. planning papers paint a grim picture of the effects of an attack against Iraq: they predict that production of oil will cease, the port of Umm Qasr on the Gulf will be shut down, and the bombing of bridges will cripple the railway network and make road travel difficult between the east and west of the country.

"The electricity grid would be seriously disrupted, with collateral damage to water and sewage systems. Government stocks of commodities such as grain would also be hit.

"Of the 900,000 predicted refugees, the U.N. estimates that about 100,000 would need immediate help."

At an unpublicized meeting in Geneva December 13, the U.N. appealed to more than ten donor nations, including Britain, to provide $37 million (£23 million) to fund preparations for a crisis.

The Rome-based World Food Program said that it had started to put in place sufficient food for 900,000 people for a month, the paper said, adding that the U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees has a stockpile of supplies for 250,000 people ready to move at 72 hours’ notice, but has only enough tents and blankets for 100,000 people.

It could take 12 weeks and $60 million to deliver enough supplies.