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U.S. Bungling May Prolong Venezuela Crisis, Foreign Nationals Urged to Leave

A supporter of Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez holds up his portrait and a copy of the national constitution

CARACAS, December 21 (IslamOnline & News Agencies) - Foreign nationals were urged Saturday, December 21, to leave Venezuela, where fears of violence mounted, as analysts warned Venezuela's strike may drag on into a third week because of bungled U.S. crisis management and myopic foreign policy.

London suggested Britons leave the trouble-torn South American country. Canada, Germany and the United States also issued similar recommendations, reported Agence France-Presse (AFP).

On Friday, December 20, the U.S. State Department ordered the departure of non-essential embassy staff and family members from Venezuela. The U.S. government noted that the open-ended general strike has significantly eroded the quality of life in Venezuela.

"Resulting conflicts have led to some deaths and injuries, and there is a potential for further violence, the State Department said in a travel warning.

Canada's foreign affairs ministry issued a similar warning. "The security situation in the country is highly volatile due to ongoing conflict between the government and its opponents," it said.

Meanwhile, the U.S. came under fire for its failure to handle the crisis, due to its fixation with "preparing for an attack on Iraq".

"If the U.S. had some adult supervision in its foreign policy, they could have guided this thing into a constructive channel, but instead we have this foolishness," said Robert White of the Center for International Policy, a Washington think-tank.

The general strike aimed at ousting President Hugo Chavez has virtually cut off oil exports in the world's fifth-largest oil-producing country, just as the U.S. prepares for war on Iraq, which would likely drive up world oil prices.

"It is hard to imagine that a great power can so mishandle an issue like this," said White, a former U.S. Ambassador to El Salvador, AFP reported.

White pointed to U.S. foreign policy flip-flops, from military intervention to early Presidential elections.

"First we had [former State Department Assistant Secretary] Otto Reich inviting a coup, then we have a recommendation from the U.S. government that's clearly unconstitutional," he said, referring to the snap elections.

A coup in April removed Chavez for less than 48 hours. Reich gave apparent approval of the provisional government, which lasted only a day.

"That did not help," said Miguel Diaz, of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, another Washington think-tank.

"It robbed momentum from efforts to call for early elections," he said.

Diaz said that street demonstrations for and against Chavez have taken the place of dialogue. "There will be more violence before reasonable people take charge," he said.

The only way out, he said, is for a quick referendum on Chavez's term in office. However, he said there is little chance of negotiating a settlement so long as the Chavez government believes it can hang on.

"A stable, democratic Venezuela is a much better partner and a much more reliable supplier," said Stephen Johnson, of the conservative Heritage Foundation.

"So rather that opting for some kind of quick solution that put a lid on the internal conflict, I think the U.S. should look for a long term policy that would guarantee that Venezuela becomes a more stable democratic society."

"This policy has been lacking for the last 30 years," he said. "We should have pressed for deeper democratic reforms (and) a society with a grass roots democracy with more people participation."

Chavez's most formidable opponents are strikers at the state-owned oil company, who have shut down enough installations to make gasoline scarce.

"It's not getting better any time soon because you've got two very determined opponents that don't want to budge," Johnson said.

Johnson said the way out is for early elections or for the legislature to remove Chavez and call elections within 30 days, as the Venezuelan constitution provides.

Chavez Not Likely to Resign

However, with a bible and the constitution at his side, Chavez swore in the name of God and South American independence hero Simon Bolivar that he will not resign.

Chavez already invoked those symbols of his devotion when thousands of people chanted "he's back" upon his triumphant return to the presidential palace 47 hours after he was ousted on April 12.

His discourse is tinged with messianic overtones, leftist rhetoric, nationalist slogans and an almost religious cult to Bolivar. A former paratrooper and avid baseball fan, he also likes to pepper his lengthy speeches with sports references.

"This is a battle between God and Satan," Chavez proclaimed recently in reference to a strike launched on December 2 by business and labor leaders.

Chavez said the legacy of a tradition that goes back almost two decades, virtually presenting himself as a reincarnation of Bolivar, whose name he never fails to invoke in his public addresses or his hours-long weekly radio and television show.

Mediators Fail

Internationally mediated negotiations have failed to ease the tension as neither side budged from its position. On Friday, the government failed to show up for the talks, now expected to resume Monday, December 23.

The thousands of oil workers at the heart of the protest have pledged to pursue the strike, even though the Supreme Court ordered them to restart the strategic sector they paralyzed.

The government put losses so far at a billion dollars and said only 2.8 million barrels of oil were exported in recent weeks, barely more than the quantity Venezuela usually ships out in a day.

Ali Rodriguez, the head the giant Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA) state oil firm, said eight oil tankers were being readied to send out 3.8 million barrels of oil, notably to the United States.

By slashing crude output, processing and shipments, the strike has hit at the heart of the economy of the world's fifth largest oil exporter.

The disruption to oil exports raised concerns that the market could tighten, particularly in the United States, which depends heavily on supplies from Venezuela and which is preparing for a possible conflict against Iraq.

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