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Russian demonstrators carry anti-war
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By
Atef Moatamid, IOL Staff
MOSCOW,
October 25 (IslamOnline) – While everybody held their breath,
following the hostage crisis in a Moscow theatre, with little chance
of reasoning what may come out eventually, a widely-circulated Russian
paper published “the expected scenarios” to end the tragic crisis.
Based
on past experiences in covering the Chechen war, raging since the
early nineties of the past century, as well as similar crises,
Izvestia paper Thursday, October 24, anticipated the worst crisis
since the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991, to develop into one of
three scenarios.
After
long negotiations (between the Russian authorities and hostage
takers), mediations by various humanitarian and international groups,
the Russian government, in a bid to save the lives of more than 700
hostages and to keep its international image, will give in to the
hostage takers’ demands (called Mujahideen by the Russian paper).
As
was the case before (in similar cases), the hostage takers will come
out, protected by human shields (members of parliament and media
persons) and head to a destination they choose (Chechen and Degistan
mountains), with guarantees of international participation in
negotiations to settle the independence of Chechnya and Degistan.
According
to the paper, the result (of this scenario) will be establishing a new
precedent for regions and areas to seek separate (from Russia) via the
same method.
Based
on the huge political losses (to be suffered by Russia) of adopting
the first scenario, Russian generals emphasize the ability of their
special forces to sweep the theatre, guaranteeing minimal human loss.
Such
a scenario will be prepared for by stressing the fact of “a sure
amount of loss among hostages and forces alike”.
The
generals will, according to Ivesti, argue that in previous similar
cases, Russia’s giving in (to the demands of hostage takers) never
yielded anything good.
In
similar hostage crises, the Russian forces expressed regret over
resorting to dialogue with hostage takers.
The
third scenario projects a limited military assault, bound to fail (in
completely solving the crisis), followed by negotiations leading to
hostage takers coming out safely, without meeting their demands, and
with just guarantees of international participation in future
negotiations to settle the Chechen crisis.
The
paper predicted the third scenario as “the most likely”, even
though it hoped the Russian authorities could come up with a fourth
scenario.
Meanwhile,
demonstrators surrounded the Moscow theatre, location of the hostage
crisis, calling for the end of Chechnya war, and urging a peaceful end
to the bloody conflict.
Within
the same context, Germany reaffirmed Friday that Russia's conflict
with Chechen separatists could only be solved by diplomatic, rather
than military, means, adding ,however, that nothing could justify
Chechen rebels taking hostages.
"(The
Chechen conflict) cannot be resolved by military means but only with
political methods," government spokesman Thomas Steg was quoted
by Agence France-Presse (AFP) as saying.
Steg
said this was also the official position of the 15-nation European
Union.
But
in a newspaper interview on Friday, German Foreign Minister Joschka
Fischer said the bloody Chechnya conflict, now in its fourth year, did
"not justify terrorism".
"Nothing
can justify hostage-taking and terror and they (the hostage-takers)
must be roundly condemned," Fischer told the daily Bild.
"Russia
is part of the international alliance against terror. It belongs among
the states which confirmed they would support each other in the fight
against terrorists," he said.
In
a separate related development, threats against Chechens, living in
Moscow, increased sharply, leading the Chechen community in Moscow to
follow a self-imposed curfew and stay home.
Russian
President Vladimir Putin, for his part, warned Friday, October 25,
against the surge in anti-Chechen sentiment among Russians, sparked by
the hostage crisis.
"I
have just received the interior minister's worrying report about
increased threats against Chechens living in small communities on
Russian territory," RIA-Novosti news agency quoted Putin as
saying.
"We
must not allow such a negative development or give in to provocations.
We must avoid unlawful action," Putin noted.
"Chechens,
like the other peoples of Russia, are fighting for Russia's interests
and their republic's civilized future, often at risk to their own
lives," the President pointed out, referring to the pro-Moscow
administration and police in the war-torn Caucasian republic of
Chechnya.
Pro-Russian
Chechen officials are considered collaborators by the independence
seekers and are frequently attacked and killed.
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