WASHINGTON,
September 24 (IslamOnline & News Agencies) - The prospect of a
Battle of Baghdad with hardcore Iraqi troops fighting to the last is
looming as the "nightmare scenario" for a war in Iraq,
according to military experts.
While
many reports have spoken of an operation with air strikes and
lightning commando raids to isolate Saddam's regime, the worst case
was raised Monday, September 23, at the Senate Armed Services
Committee.
Joseph
Hoar, former commander in chief of the U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM),
told the committee that "the nightmare scenario" is six
Iraqi Republican Guard divisions and six heavy divisions reinforced
with several thousand anti-aircraft artillery pieces defending
Baghdad.
"The
result would be high casualties on both sides, as well as in the
civilian community.
"U.S.
forces will certainly prevail but at what cost and at what cost as the
rest of the world watches while we win and have military rounds
exploding in densely populated Iraqi neighborhoods."
The
retired general said the U.S. government had to make sure it has
enough forces ready to take on the Iraqi army and warned against
excess confidence in Washington.
"There
are people in this city who believe that a military campaign against
Iraq will not be difficult because of the enormous advances of
technology and the willingness of some groups in Iraq to revolt once a
campaign has begun.
"I
am not certain that a campaign of this nature will take that course. I
certainly hope so. One thing I am certain is that there is a nightmare
scenario," he told senators.
Hoar
is one of three retired four-star generals, joined by Gen. Wesley K.
Clark, a former NATO military commander, and Gen. John M.
Shalikashvili, a former chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, who
said that attacking Iraq without a United Nations resolution
supporting military action could limit aid from allies, energize
recruiting for al-Qaeda and undermine America's long-term diplomatic
and economic interests, reports the New York Times.
The
officers, some of whom warned that a war with Iraq could detract from
the campaign against terrorism, while defending the U.S. right to act
unilaterally to defend its interests, said the administration of
President George W. Bush must work harder to exhaust diplomatic
options before resorting to unilateral military action to oust Saddam
Hussein and eliminate any weapons of mass destruction Iraq may have,
said the paper.
"It's
a question of what's the sense of urgency here, and how soon would we
need to act unilaterally?" said Clark, an Army officer who
commanded allied forces in the 1999 Kosovo air war. "So far as
any of the information has been presented, there is nothing that
indicates that in the immediate, next hours, next days, that there's
going to be nuclear-tipped missiles put on launch pads to go against
our forces or our allies in the region."
Cautioning
that the Bush administration should get U.N. approval, Shalikashvili
said, "We are a global nation with global interests, and
undermining the credibility of the United Nations does very little to
help provide stability and security and safety to the rest of the
world, where we have to operate for economic reasons and political
reasons."
Without
confirming media reports that the Bush administration had war plans
drawn up, U.S. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld said the reports
"are saying the obvious."
According
to the U.S. media, any war will not just be a sequel to Operation
Desert Storm launched in 1991 after Iraq invaded Kuwait.
It
will target Saddam and his entourage and the institutions that hold up
his administration instead of seeking to destroy infrastructure and
large-scale troop concentrations as in the first Gulf War.
"Our
interest is to get there very quickly, decapitate the regime and open
the place up, demonstrating that we're there to liberate, not to
occupy," one U.S. military planner told the Washington Post.
The
U.S. invasion force would probably be about 100,000 troops, much
smaller than the 500,000 deployed in the Gulf war in 1991, the Post
said.
Buster
Glosson, a retired U.S. Air Force lieutenant general who devised the
massive air campaign for 1991, said a massive troop deployment would
be wrong faced with Iraq's chemical and biological weapon threat.
He
told the Washington Times that there should be intense air
strikes and only special operations on the ground that together would
isolate the Iraqi leader and his troops in Baghdad, and cut them off
from other main cities such as Basra.
"If
our war-fighting asymmetrical advantage is maximized, Saddam will not
last 30 days," he declared.
Experts
said the U.S. military must first take control of the skies over Iraq.
"If
we do go, and I think we will, I don't think we have any choice but to
go in fast and hard and take down as much of his military structure
before [Saddam] has a chance to react," said Jay Farrar, a
military expert and vice-president of the Center for Strategic and
International Studies (CSIS) in Washington.
After
air strikes and moves "to consolidate as much territory as
possible" the United States "will then start a huge airlift
campaign to push forces in the region and it will probably be done
twice as fast as during the Gulf War," he added.
Farrar
said most military planners he had spoken with believe that "a
core group of officers will stand with" Saddam and use
"whatever means they have available, including biological and
chemical weapons, as a last means of resistance."
The
CSIS expert said Saddam might already have 'scorched earth' plans
ready to blow up Iraq's oil and refinery facilities.
But
Farrar also raised the Battle of Baghdad nightmare scenario could come
out of such a strategy.
"The
problem is that the U.S. will drive the Iraqis back into the city and
then it becomes a terrible problem to deal with. It becomes a battle
mile-by-mile, block-by-block," he said