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Analysts Say U.S. Charges Undermining Improved Ties With Iran
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Iranians
took to the streets in protest against U.S. accusations. |
WASHINGTON, Feb. 12 (IslamOnline & News Agencies) - Several analysts said they were surprised and mystified by recent remarks made by U.S. President George W. Bush’s administration officials who claim that Iran may be just a few years away from developing nuclear weapons capability.
Renewed speculation over Iran's progress in developing nuclear capability followed Bush's last month's "State of the Union" address, in which he claimed that Iran, and North Korea comprised an "axis of evil."
Bush claimed Iran "aggressively pursues" weapons of mass destruction and "exports terror," and that "an un-elected few repress the Iranian people's hope for freedom."
Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) Director George Tenet also told a Senate hearing last week that Iran may be able by itself to produce enough fissile material for a nuclear weapon by late this decade.
But he went on to say this estimate could be cut by years if Iran is able to obtain materials from outside sources.
A CIA report issued a week earlier said Iran "remains one of the most active countries seeking to acquire technology from abroad."
"In doing so, Tehran is attempting to develop a domestic capability to produce various types of weapons - chemical, biological, and nuclear - and their delivery systems," the report said.
Gary Milhollin, the executive director of the Wisconsin Project on Nuclear Weapons Control, a Washington-based non-governmental group that checks the spread of weapons of mass destruction, said he was surprised by the CIA’s revised timetable on Iran.
"For a long time, the CIA was saying Iran was 10 years away from having a nuclear weapon," said Milhollin. "They said it every year. Now they're saying about three years."
Milhollin said that Iran's nuclear program was still in the research stage. He also said the Iranian government had signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and complied with regular inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).
"We must be saying that we believe the Iranians are succeeding in deceiving the IAEA," added Milhollin. "Maybe the CIA knows something that's not been reported. It takes time to build the necessary equipment to make fissible material. I'm mystified.
"I hope we're not seeing politicized intelligence reporting. It would be nice if the intelligence community just told the truth."
R.K. Ramazani, a professor at the University of Virginia in Charlottesville, Va., and scholar on Iran for a half-century, said he could not verify whether Iran is seeking to develop nuclear weapons, but said the Iranian government, since the reign of the Shah, has repeatedly maintained that they have no intention of doing so.
"Iran is a member and party to the NPT," said Ramazani. "The IAEA said Iran is in full compliance with the NPT. In regards to Iran’s chemical and biological weapons, it is party to both conventions against developing these weapons. These treaty obligations exist. Whether they would violate these is a question that is almost unimaginable."
Ramazani said it was unfortunate that Bush tried to include Iran in an alleged "axis of evil" with Iraq and North Korea. Washington's more belligerent anti-Iran stance prompted leaders in Tehran to make anti-Americanism the main theme of demonstrations Monday, February 11, on the 23rd anniversary of the Iranian revolution.
"The attempt to lump together a theocratic state, Iran; a communist regime, North Korea; and a secular dictatorial government like Iraq is a very odd thing," added Ramazani.
"To the extent that diplomatic progress had been made during the [former U.S. president Bill] Clinton administration toward reducing tensions, that has been marred and set back," said Ramazani. "To make Iran an enemy in such a way because of suggestions of a weapons program is far from useful. It makes more sense to have Iran on our side, than ignoring it.”
He said Iran was helpful in aiding the Northern Alliance (NA) in ousting the Taliban regime in neighboring Afghanistan, supporting the NA for five years before the launching of the U.S.-led military campaign.
Iran, like Iraq and North Korea, remains on the U.S. State Department's list of nations supporting international terror. The Bush administration has backed Israel's claim that Iran was involved in the "Karine A affair," the failed attempt to smuggle a shipload of arms into Palestine.
During last week's visit to Washington, hardline Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon told Bush that Iran had increased its support to Lebanon's Hizbollah, as well as Palestinian groups resisting Israel's occupation of the West Bank, East Jerusalem and the Gaza Strip. Some of these groups are on the U.S. State Department's list of terrorist groups as well.
Whatever the merits of reports about Iran's nuclear weapons capability or its support of resistance groups, it is clear to some analysts that Bush's remarks singling out Iran may have important domestic consequences for Iran.
Paul Sullivan, a lecturer at the National Defense University and a longtime analyst on Iran, said using the term, "axis of evil" to describe Iran "falls right into the hands of the extremists and the hard right-wing" in Iran that is opposed to reformist President Mohammed Khatami.
"We could do more in engaging Iran since 1995 and we should have," said Sullivan. "If we spoke more often, this could have considerably reduced tensions between us."
He said charges by the Bush administration that Iran was either supporting the Taliban, or providing sanctuary to members of Osama bin Laden's Al-Qaeda network had shattered any chance to thaw relations between Washington and Tehran for the next several months or, perhaps, years.
Following the deadly September 11 attacks on New York and outside Washington, D.C., the normally tense mood between Tehran and Washington eased somewhat. Iran denounced the attacks and shared intelligence on terrorism with U.S. officials.
Iran, long opposed to the Taliban regime in neighboring Afghanistan, also cooperated with the United States and other countries in laying the groundwork for a successor government in Kabul. It also promised generous reconstruction assistance for Afghanistan. Contacts between American and Iranian diplomats were cordial.
Next week, interim Afghan leader Hamid Karzai is scheduled to visit Tehran for talks with Iranian President Mohammed Khatami and several high-ranking Iranian officials.
With additional reporting by S.M. Khalid, IOL Correspondent
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