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Analysis: Scenarios in Case of All-Out U.S. War
CAIRO, Sept 16 (IslamOnline) - Middle Eastern military analysts speaking to IslamOnline on the request of anonymity, predicted only four possible war scenarios for a potential U.S. military move against Afghanistan.
The first scenario put forward was the case of U.S. air strikes using bases in Pakistan, Uzbekistan or Tajikistan in the northern parts of Afghanistan, or via a U.S. marine and naval force currently stationed in the Persian Gulf.
U.S. military intelligence would target Osama bin Laden's al-Qaeda group members and posts, as well as Taliban's official and government buildings, in order to put pressure on the Taliban to provide assistance in extraditing or arresting bin Laden.
However, in 1998, the U.S. used similar tactics against bin Laden that ultimately failed. Bin Laden and his al-Qaeda members had repositioned themselves in safer mountainous areas prior to the attack, and would most likely utilize the same tactic in case the U.S. again tried to rely on air strikes alone.
The second scenario put forth by analysts was a limited military action in cooperation with some of Afghanistan's neighbors in order to arrest bin Laden and hit his headquarters.
However, for such an operation to take place, the U.S needs more time to prepare due to Afghanistan's mostly mountainous terrain and the population's antagonism towards any foreign presence, making any such U.S. mission difficult.
The U.S. is believed to be contemplating the assistance of the forces currently in opposition to the Taliban to facilitate any possible mission. The U.S. will also find itself requiring the co-operation of Pakistan and Central Asian countries.
As for the third scenario, analysts pointed out to the New York Times, which stated on Friday that the Pentagon is currently studying an attack on Afghanistan via air and land, as well as air and sea sanctions.
"U.S. forces will gain more mobility than that in the 1991 Gulf war if it resorts to land forces," military analysts say, adding that air strike units and Special Forces will play a major role in delivering strikes and then retreating, without the need to control the area.
However, analysts, pointing out previous attempts at occupation by the Soviets in 1979-1989, said that land operations would not succeed.
The fourth scenario, believed to be most likely, involves more profound military and political preparations, which could transcend the borders of Afghanistan and reach other nations that the U.S. claims harbor terrorists.
This would require an international alliance - including Arab and Islamic countries - to enter Afghani land with the blessings of the international community.
This scenario, the U.S. government feels, would probably aid Americans' confidence and its image as the world's super power.
In case the Taliban refuse to co-operate with the United States in turning in bin Laden before solid evidence results from the Taliban's own investigations, observers anticipate that any mission, the aim of which is bin Laden's arrest, would not be an easy, predicting U.S. forces would face difficulties, especially if bin Laden uses guerrilla tactics.
As the United States prepares itself for a war with Afghanistan, many people inside the U.S. government reject suggestions that President George W. Bush seeks only to strengthen a perceived weak administration.
Speaking to the New York Times Friday, analysts said that resisting terrorist attacks by using military force only, is not the correct policy, adding that diplomacy would play a major role in counteracting this danger, through international pressure on ruling governments which harbor terrorist organizations.
Previous U.S. military attacks, they said, did not eradicate the opposition from these countries or organizations, which the U.S feels, are a threat to its national interests.
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