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Massive Defeat for Arroyo on Muslim Self-Rule Vote Expected
MANILA, Aug 14 (IslamOnline & News Agencies) - Reports Tuesday say that Philippines President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo may not get the support for her proposal for extended Muslim self-rule in Mindanao.
A low turnout of voters in the plebiscite on the expansion of the Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (ARMM), and its rejection by the Christian majority in the provinces, may have sealed a defeat for self-rule in the region.
The Commission on Elections (Comelec) said only 50% of voters turned out Tuesday to participate in the plebiscite, adding that results were good considering the wave of violence in the region, as well as heavy flooding in several areas in Mindanao.
The provinces of Basilan, Sulu, Zamboanga del Sur, Lanao, and the cities of Isabela, General Santos, Zamboanga City and Pagadian City were declared "hot spots" amid threats of violence to scuttle the conduct of the plebiscite.
Comelec also put the entire province of Basilan on red alert Tuesday after receiving reports that Abu Sayyaf Group (ASG), Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF) and Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) fighters were out to sow violence during the plebiscite.
The 15 provinces taking part in the plebiscite are Palawan, Basilan, Tawi-Tawi, Zamboanga del Norte, Zamboanga del Sur, Zamboanga Sibugay, Sulu, Davao del Sur, South Cotabato, Sarangani, North Cotabato, Lanao del Norte, Lanao del Sur, Sultan Kudarat and Maguindanao.
The cities taking part in the elections are Puerto Princesa, Isabela, Dapitan, Dipolog, Zamboanga, Digos, General Santos, Koronadal, Kidapawan, Iligan, Marawi, Tacurong and Cotabato.
The plebiscite will determine whether the people in the 11 provinces and 13 cities would join ARMM, which is now composed of four Muslim-majority provinces: Lanao del Sur, Maguindanao, Sulu and Tawi-Tawi.
Torrential rain and flooding, a boycott by some Muslim groups and objections to the voting by officials in Christian-dominated areas of the south, resulted in a low turnout of voters.
Some 4.9 million Filipinos from 15 provinces and four cities in the southern Philippines, and the western island of Palawan, were eligible to vote in the poll.
Most of the south's 17.6 million people are wary of joining the ARMM, a shaky political entity populated by 2.2 million people who live in the poorest region of the Philippines.
If Arroyo wins the support she campaigned for, Muslims will be allowed to govern under the ARMM an extended territory representing nearly a fourth of the Philippines.
Yet sources in Manila said they expected the vote to head for massive defeat under Arroyo's formula, saying that Christians will not follow Arroyo on the issue.
Christians in the Philippines are said to be against the peace treaty signed between the government and the MILF last week in Kuala Lumpur.
Arroyo campaigned for Muslim autonomy, visiting the region on the eve of the vote and describing the choice as an "intelligent" alternative to demands for a separate state by at least two Muslim groups.
But an Arroyo spokesman candidly conceded after the visit that she would be satisfied if even just the "predominantly Muslim" cities of Marawi and Cotabato elected to join the ARMM. Both Cotabato and Marawi had rejected inclusion in the ARMM in a similar 1989 plebiscite.
Analysts say many Christians are apprehensive about Muslim rule because they do not want to be subject to Islamic laws. Christian-dominated areas covered by the plebiscite are also largely prosperous.
The government hopes the plebiscite will gain enough support to convince the largest Muslim group still fighting the government, the MILF, to agree to a political settlement and end its 23-year campaign to establish a separate Islamic state carved out of the Philippines.
If the plebiscite fails, Arroyo's regime will have to look for other solutions in order to satisfy the demands of the Bangsamoro Muslims.
There are an estimated five million Filipino Muslims, making up a large minority in this largely Roman Catholic nation of 76.5 million.
Most live in Mindanao, but waves of migration from other areas has eased many of them towards the fringes of the economy and society.
In 1996, the MNLF signed a peace treaty with Manila, ending a separatist campaign begun in 1971. A splinter group, the MILF then waged war against the Filipino regime.
The MILF is expected to press its own demands in coming negotiations with the government.
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