|
India, Pakistan Test-Bed For Nuclear Deterrence Theory
LONDON, May 16 (News Agencies) - Troubled relations between India and Pakistan are a "rapidly evolving test-bed for nuclear deterrence theory," the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) said in its annual report Wednesday.
The balance of forces in the subcontinent is opaque, "as expected for nuclear-weapons states early in the development and acquisition cycles," the London-based think tank said
IISS said that by the end of 1999, non-governmental assessment of fissile material stockpiles in South Asia credited India with the means to make 65 nuclear weapons and Pakistan to make 39.
"Word has leaked out, however, that India used reactor-grade plutonium for one of its detonations, suggesting that its nuclear potential - as well as that of any other similarly inclined state with a civilian nuclear power industry - is greater than anticipated."
The relative balance of capabilities was clouded by reports in June 2000 asserting Pakistani advantages in missiles, nuclear weaponization for missiles and command-and-control arrangements, IISS said.
"While Pakistani officials assert that they do not intend to compete with India in nuclear weapons, they have certainly invested heavily in doing so," it said.
Although India's nuclear infrastructure and financial means are far greater, Pakistan's military programs, especially the nuclear and missile ones, have first call on available resources, IISS said.
India's more complex political and military circumstances pose a more demanding problem: New Delhi will establish requirements against Beijing's strategic modernization programs as well as against Islamabad's.
The institute went on to say that the search for stability, reassurance and nuclear risk-reduction between India and Pakistan was stymied by the absence of official talks during 2000.
After the India-Pakistan conflict on the heights above Kargil in Kashmir in 1999, New Delhi froze ties with Islamabad, seeking to isolate the government of General Pervez Musharraf and to highlight Pakistan's support for "militant" groups operating from its soil.
Nuclear risk-reduction and stability talks between India and China were frozen during 2000 for different reasons, IISS noted: "Beijing refuses to compromise on the subject of India's nuclear tests and is unwilling to talk to India about them in any way that might suggest equality."
The central diplomatic developments during 2000 were former U.S. President Bill Clinton's trip to the region in March and visits to New York by Indian Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee and Musharraf
"The first Clinton term had followed a 'Pakistan first' approach that alienated India without changing Pakistan's policies.
"At the outset of the second term, Clinton shifted to an 'India first' posture, which was chilled by New Delhi's surprise tests of nuclear devices."
The freeze in Indo-U.S. relations following the 1998 tests was thawed by an extended dialogue, the IISS said, and went on to note that at least publicly President George W. Bush appears inclined to follow Clinton's lead in South Asia.
"The new administration did, however, tone down its anti-proliferation position with respect to both countries, courting India diplomatically and focusing its harshest criticism on Pakistan for its support of Islamic extremists in Afghanistan and Kashmir."
The Bush administration may capitalize on the warming of U.S.-Indian relations by lifting economic sanctions imposed in 1998, IISS said.
On the domestic front, India has been relatively stable, though rocked by a devastating earthquake in February, it said. A corruption scandal led to high-level resignations but India was unlikely to face serious disruptions to its democratic stability in the medium term, IISS said.
Pakistan, is by far the more precarious state, it said, observing that Musharraf has not been an improvement over the corrupt Nawaz Sharif regime he ousted.
|
