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IIIS Think Tank On Balkans,
Iraq And Palestinians
LONDON, May 16 (IslamOnline & News Agencies) - Balkans peacekeeping and the containment of Iraq loom as critical foreign policy challenges for U.S. President George W. Bush, as the U.S. will return to play a key role in the Middle East, the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies (IIIS) said in its annual report.
Bush is unlikely to give the same high-level attention to foreign affairs that former president Bill Clinton did, but he already has shown an inclination to send clear signals to competitors and allies alike, said the report.
The institute warned of tensions in U.S. security relations with its European allies because of U.S. skepticism of European Union efforts to forge a European Security and Defense Policy.
"Particularly vis-a-vis France, Washington will find it awkward both to question the need for an operationally strong EU rapid-reaction force, on the one hand, and, on the other, to seek to minimize NATO's burden in the Balkans," it said.
"Bush may have to choose between acquiescing to a regional peacekeeping role for NATO - which is likely to entail leaving American troops in the Balkans indefinitely - or allowing the EU force a degree of autonomy previously ruled out," it said.
Bush's advisers raised European concerns during the elections by suggesting that he would withdraw U.S. troops from the Balkans, and leave peacekeeping duties there to the Europeans.
But Secretary of State Colin Powell has given assurances that Washington will not withdraw unilaterally and any action will be taken in consultation with its allies.
Reviewing the West's policy on Iraq, the IISS said "containment" was still the only way to deal with President Saddam Hussein's regime, but argued that it would be best carried out with "recalibrated" sanctions.
It predicted that re-invigorating containment would require more "give and take" that some in the new administration suppose.
Washington will have great difficulties in re-energizing its coalition against Iraq "without assuming a more proactive role in the Arab-Israeli peace process in order to attract moderate Arab backing," it said.
"A more measured line with respect to sanctions and undermining the Baghdad regime will also be required to win the support of European capitals," it said.
"Thus the new administration will almost certainly have to make substantial practical adjustments to a somewhat inflexible, if elegant, foreign-policy blueprint," it said.
Reacting to recent criticism of the U.N. embargo on Iraq, the report calls for "smart" sanctions and suggests solutions such as eliminating sanctions on commercial goods and commercial flights restrictions, suspending air patrols over the southern "no-fly" zone, unleashing investment in Iraq's oil infrastructure or blocking the assets of regime members.
In the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the IIIS said that the deadly spiral violence is harming U.S. interests elsewhere in the region.
In the Middle East chapter of the Strategic Survey, IISS also had low expectations for an Israeli-Syrian peace.
The institute forecast that "poor" prospects for the Middle East and the Gulf at the end of 2000 would lead to more tangible U.S. involvement.
"Washington's inability to forge peace between the Palestinians and Israelis has made its security interests in the Gulf more difficult to manage," said the report as the death toll of the seven-month-old Palestinian uprising against Israeli occupation hit 535.
The institute mentions the October bombing of the U.S. destroyer USS Cole, killing 17 sailors, which it says was "inspired by Palestinian strife". Washington is often criticized by Arab countries for aligning its Middle East policy with Israel.
"It seems likely that [Israeli] domestic politics and regional dynamics will lead to a more energetic American involvement, especially if violence escalates sharply," the IISS said.
Hardliner Ariel Sharon's victory over Ehud Barak in the February prime ministerial election "need not mean the end of the peace process," the report said, adding however that, "there is no question that the Israeli economy can withstand a prolonged confrontation."
"The ability of the Palestinian economy to withstand the stress of the Intifada for very long however, is doubtful," it said.
According to U.N. figures quoted by the report, some 100,000 Palestinians have been deprived of work since a crippling blockade was imposed on the occupied territories following the eruption of the uprising in September 2000.
"Some of the jobs will be lost permanently as Israel replaces Palestinian labor with Southeast Asian and eastern European workers."
Sharon's accession to power marked the end of the "solutionist" phase of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, said the report in the chapter headlined "The Crumbling peace Effort", adding that "the issues, rather, are when the Palestinians and Israelis are likely to return to the negotiating table and with what agenda."
According to the IISS, when Sharon and Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat "decide to talk, the United States is likely to return to play a key role."
The institute sees no way out of the impasse however for Israeli-Syrian peace efforts, following Sharon's refusal to hand over the Golan Heights, which the Jewish state seized in 1967.
The IISS said that although Syrian President Bashar al-Assad "is less bound by the enmities of the past" than his late father Hafez al-Assad to whom he succeeded in July 2000, "the new president is focusing on consolidating his position in power and is unlikely to take unnecessary risks."
The report predicts the Israeli-Syrian front will remain stable but fears an escalation between the two countries in Lebanon over the burning issue of the Shebaa Farms, an area where the borders of Lebanon, Syria and Israel intersect.
Seized from Syria by Israel in 1967, the disputed farms are now claimed by Beirut, and the Lebanese Hezbollah movement has said it would pursue its attacks against Israel's occupation forces until they were handed over.
Commenting on a topic which has been the cause of recent tension, the institute says that although Syrian forces in Lebanon have been cut down from 40,000 at the beginning of the 90's to 20,000, "Syrian withdrawal from Lebanon is very unlikely prior to a comprehensive peace between Syria and Israel, and even then economic and political links may be too strong to permit separation."
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